The NFL Christmas Day slate was underwhelming, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens securing blowout victories in their games. Kansas City and Baltimore looked like the elite teams in the NFL, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans didn't appear to be anywhere close to their level.
Even with the blowouts, there were plenty of developments with the four playoff teams. Kansas City locked up the No. 1 seed, while Baltimore took over first in the AFC North. Plenty of overreactions came from this doubleheader of games.
Which overreactions from Christmas are actually overreactions? Which ones are reality?
Chiefs are going back to the Super Bowl
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Kansas City. The Chiefs clinched home-field advantage after their victory over the Steelers, which means AFC teams will have to beat a 15-1 team in Arrowhead Stadium -- a place where the Chiefs haven't lost this season.
Patrick Mahomes is 10-2 in home playoff games, with his only losses coming in the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes is also 44-11 in home games in his career, an astonishing .800 win percentage. With the Chiefs clinching home-field advantage and the first-round bye, it just feels inevitable they'll be going to the Super Bowl.
Oh, and the Chiefs have Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco back in this offense. They are getting healthier by the week.
Buffalo has beaten Kansas City this year. Baltimore has challenged them. But the Chiefs are the favorites to get to Super Bowl LIX. Until a team beats them at Arrowhead Stadium, it's a fair assumption to say the Chiefs are coming out of the AFC.
Lamar Jackson will hit 10,000 career rushing yards
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Jackson has already passed Michael Vick for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history, having 6,110 rushing yards in his career. At just 27 years old (turns 28 in January), Jackson has played seven seasons in the league and averages 872 rushing yards a season. With this pace, Jackson would need five more seasons to reach the mark -- by his age-32 season.
With how prolific Jackson is at throwing the ball, he'll remain a dual-threat quarterback even as his speed starts to diminish. Being 32 isn't a deterrent for Jackson, either, as the two-time MVP will still be in the prime of his career. He'll be within striking distance for 10,000 rushing yards in his career, and is already looking like a quarterback who can start until he's 35.
Jackson is setting the standard for dual-threat quarterbacks, and he could reach heights that may never be broken.
Derrick Henry will hit 2,000 rushing yards again
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Perhaps if Henry played the majority of the fourth quarter of the Christmas Day win over the Texans, this conversation would be different, yet Henry has ran his way into this debate. Already rushing for 2,000 yards in a season once, Henry is within striking distance of accomplishing the feat again.
With 147 rushing yards on Christmas, Henry is sitting at 1,783 rushing yards for the season heading into the final week. He will need 217 yards to reach 2,000, a number he has reached three times in his career (but not this season).
The Ravens are an excellent running team, but a well-balanced offense with Jackson throwing the ball and Henry complimenting him on the ground. Baltimore has the division to play for, so that will help Henry's cause. They also face the Browns.
Henry may fall just short of 2,000, but his first year with the Ravens has been nothing short of amazing.
Russell Wilson should not return as the Steelers QB next season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Steelers played three games in 11 days, all against teams with 10-plus wins. The offensive numbers weren't good, and neither was Wilson. Pittsburgh averages just 280.7 yards per game and 13.0 offensive points per game over the past three, all with Wilson at quarterback.
Wilson has completed just 64.1% of his passes for 550 yards with three touchdowns to two interceptions and an 82.2 passer rating. The Steelers quarterback has also taken 10 sacks and has just a 73.3 passer rating when facing the blitz during the skid.
Not having George Pickens for two games hurt, but Wilson is completing just 45.1% of his passes with one touchdown and one interception (78.6 rating) on passes that traveled 10 air yards or more. The Steelers offense isn't operating like it did earlier in the season, and part of that has to do with Wilson.
Is Wilson good enough to start? Yes, but the Steelers need an upgrade at quarterback if they are going to compete for a Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is not a Super Bowl contender with Wilson based on how the last three weeks have played out.
Mike Tomlin should be let go as Steelers head coach after this year
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Are the Steelers really going to get rid of a coach who's never had a losing season in his 18 years on the job? No, even with how the last three weeks have played out. Pittsburgh started the season with a 10-3 record and sit at 10-6 after a three-game losing streak. The Steelers were up two games on the Ravens after Week 14 (and held the tiebreaker, too), but are one game away from losing the AFC North.
Even if the Steelers get the No. 5 seed, they should be able to defeat the Texans in a playoff game. That would certainly be enough for Tomlin to keep his job, but he'll most likely keep it regardless.
Sure, the Steelers are mired in a phase of mediocrity, and part of that has to do with Tomlin. Pittsburgh is good enough to go to the playoffs, yet the 11-13 record in December over the last five years is a problem. The Steelers do respond with a 5-1 record in January, but Tomlin is also 3-7 in the playoffs over the last 10 years (with one conference championship game appearance).
This is a conundrum with the Steelers every year. They win games, but not in the playoffs. They aren't a Super Bowl contender, but the roster is good enough to play in the tournament. Tomlin deserves credit for that -- along with the blame.
At the end of the day, Pittsburgh isn't moving on. But the late-season collapses are still frustrating.
