Thanksgiving in Green Bay is going to feel substantially different than it does in Miami, so with the Dolphins visiting the Packers for an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, should the weather factor into your NFL DFS strategy? Miami's offense has struggled late in the season in colder weather environments, and although it won't be as frigid as the playoff game in Kansas City last season, Miami being held to seven points on 264 total yards in Kansas City is a tough memory to forget. Daily Fantasy football players may want to keep that in mind for Thanksgiving NFL DFS picks, which could pivot some to form NFL DFS lineups and build NFL DFS stacks from Lions vs. Bears and Cowboys vs. Giants.
Neither the Cowboys nor Giants will be starting their Week 1 quarterbacks, so can you still rely on CeeDee Lamb or Malik Nabers from the NFL DFS player pool to perform to their price tags? Before locking in any NFL DFS lineups Thanksgiving on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to check out the NFL DFS lineup advice, strategy and player stacks from SportsLine NFL daily Fantasy expert Jimmie Kaylor.
Kaylor is a NFL and DFS expert for SportsLine, who opened the 2022 NFL season by winning DraftKings' NFL Showdown Thursday Kickoff Millionaire contest. He edged out over 355,000 other entrants in the contest and also has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume. Kaylor, who cashed big all season in 2022, has covered the NFL and college football for close to a decade as a member of the Pro Football Writers of America, and his background as a former college and NFL player gives him a unique perspective when building his fantasy lineups and locking in his betting picks on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kaylor hit on epic NFL DFS picks for SportsLine members throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In 2022, he was all over Travis Kelce's four-touchdown performance against the Raiders on Monday Night Football, Kirk Cousins' 460-yard, four-TD performance on Thanksgiving Day, and T.J. Hockenson's 13 catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. In 2023, he hit on Ja'Marr Chase's massive Week 5 performance (15 catches, 192 yards, three TDs), D.J. Moore's eight catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns in Week 14, and De'Von Anchane's breakout performance (233 total yards, four TD's) in Week 3.
This season, some of Kaylor's top picks in Showdown DFS slates include Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed, (4-138-1, 33-1), Bills quarterback Josh Allen (263-4), and Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (509-4). Anyone who followed his picks is way up.
Now, Kaylor has turned his attention to Bears vs. Lions, Giants vs. Cowboys and Dolphins vs. Packers on Thanksgiving in Week 13 and locked in his top daily Fantasy football picks. You can only see his picks and analysis at SportsLine.
Top NFL DFS picks for Thanksgiving
One of Kaylor's top NFL DFS picks for Thanksgiving is Lions quarterback Jared Goff ($6,500 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel). He is the most expensive quarterback on both sites, but the Lions also have the highest implied team total at more than 28 points of the three Thanksgiving contests. He has at least 240 passing yards in three straight weeks with six touchdowns during that span. It's his first matchup against the Bears this season, but last year at home, Goff threw for 236 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions against Chicago.
The Lions being 0-7 over the last seven years on Thanksgiving is one of the more surprising statistics given their turnaround under head coach Dan Campbell, and you can be sure the boisterous coach is reminding his team of that record throughout the week. The Lions are 10-1 this season and the current favorites to win the Super Bowl, but that Thanksgiving streak is another roadblock for the franchise. Goff and the Lions will be highly motivated at home in front of a national audience to change that and Detroit enters with the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL at 32.7 points per game. See who else to target here.
Kaylor is also targeting Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed ($6,700 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel). Although Reed has been held to fewer than 30 yards in back-to-back contests, he remains one of the receivers with the highest ceilings in the NFL DFS player pool. He has more than 110 yards in three games, including two contests with more than 130 yards and a touchdown. Reed has often been a boom-or-bust receiver this season, but a matchup against the Lions has massive potential for a strong result.
Reed runs the majority of his routes from the slot and the Lions have struggled against the slot this season, including allowing six receptions for 96 yards to Michael Pittman Jr. last week, who had the majority of his production from the slot and in the middle of the field. The 24-year-old Reed had five receptions for 113 yards in his first contest against Detroit this season. Kaylor likes Reed's big-play potential in this matchup against a Lions defense allowing 227.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 25th in the league. See who else Kaylor likes right here.
How to set Thanksgiving NFL DFS lineups, player pool
Kaylor is also targeting another undervalued player who could explode for huge numbers on Thanksgiving Day. This pick could be the difference between winning your tournaments and cash games or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is, and the rest of Kaylor's NFL DFS picks, at SportsLine.
So who is Jimmie Kaylor including in his optimal NFL DFS lineups for Thanksgiving, and which under-the-radar NFL DFS picks offer huge value? Visit SportsLine now to see optimal NFL DFS picks, rankings, advice, and stacks, all from an NFL DFS expert who won a prestigious Millionaire Maker tournament, and find out.
