Week 17 in the NFL will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Seattle Seahawks are nine-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, the Dallas Cowboys are field goal favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Atlanta Falcons are 3.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers in a divisional game that has major postseason implications and has already seen the line move.
With so many eye-popping games, teams playing with varying degrees of motivation, and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
With a 166-74 record, SportsLine's model is beating nearly every expert tracked on NFLPickWatch for the second year in a row.
It's fresh off a week in which it absolutely crushed its NFL picks, going 13-3 straight up and nailing big wins for the Rams, Eagles and Saints. Those NFL picks helped run its straight-up record to a stunning 64-16 over the past five weeks. Anyone who has followed its picks is up big.
With Week 17 here, the computer simulated every game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
One team the model is extremely high on: the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are six-point favorites against the Cleveland Browns.
According to reports, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (rest) won't play on Sunday. Neither will running back Le'Veon Bell (rest) or wide receiver Antonio Brown (calf). Instead, it'll be a motley crew of Landry Jones, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stevan Ridley.
The model says that even if the Steelers rest their primary weapons, they'll still cruise to a 10-point victory, easily covering the spread and sending the division-rival Browns home 0-16. Don't be deterred by backups playing -- back the Steelers with confidence.
One big surprise: the Chiefs, four-point underdogs at Denver, only lose by one in a 21-20 final. The model says Denver only wins outright in 56 percent of simulations, so this game could be ripe for an upset. In fact, the model has a top-rated pick on the KC money line (+176) based on value.
The Chiefs will be without starting QB Alex Smith (rest), with rookie backup Patrick Mahomes making his first NFL start. WR Tyreek Hill (rest) also won't play, and RB Kareem Hunt will likely rest as well. Kansas City is locked into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs.
The model says that even if the Chiefs' primary weapons dress in street clothes, they'll still keep it close against a Broncos team that let Redskins QB Kirk Cousins go off for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday.
Back the Chiefs confidently in Week 17, even if Smith, Hill, Hunt, and company all watch from the sidelines.
The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge showdown between the Falcons and Panthers, and it's also calling for a playoff contender to suffer a crushing loss. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 17? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Panthers-Falcons game you need to be all over and find out which playoff contender goes down hard, all from the model that is on a blistering 64-16 run this year, plus get NFL picks from 20 experts.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-15, 43.5)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis (-5.5, 41)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 36.5)
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+3, 39.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-12, 38)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 39)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7, 43)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2, 42.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angles Rams (+4, 43.5)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs (+5, 49)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 41.5)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 42)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 38)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-4, 38)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 40)