Apparently, no one wants to win the NFC East. At least that's how it looked after a wild Week 5 that saw all four teams go winless, which seems impossible when you consider that two NFC East teams actually faced each other.
So what happened in the division? The Cowboys lost to the previously winless Buccaneers. The Eagles blew a lead in the final eight seconds against Jacksonville, and then we had the Commanders and Giants, who somehow played to a tie.
At this point, you might be wondering who's going to win the division, and fortunately, we might have the answer for you here. To figure out who's going to win each division and who's going to make the playoffs, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season.
There are 193 games left on the regular-season schedule, along with 13 playoff games, and Oh simulated ALL of them. Not only did he project the 14 teams that will end up making the playoffs, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion. And he also projected who the winner will be in the NFC East, since someone has to win that division.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.
Projected AFC playoff field
There are only four teams in the AFC with one loss or less, and to no one's surprise, all four of those teams are being projected to win their division.
Here's the projected AFC playoff field (with each team's current record):
1. Chiefs (4-0) -- AFC West champion
2. Bills (4-1) -- AFC East champion
3. Jaguars (4-1) -- AFC South champion
4. Ravens (4-1) -- AFC North champion
5. Broncos (3-2)
6. Bengals (3-2)
7. Patriots (3-2)
When it comes to the wild card teams, our projection model essentially has five teams battling for three spots, with the Broncos, Bengals and Patriots getting in over the Colts and Steelers. The computer has all five of those teams finishing with a winning record, but the Colts and Steelers are both on the outside looking in at 9-8.
Projected NFC playoff field
The 49ers are officially the team to beat in the NFC, at least according to our projection. After watching them go on the road to beat the Seahawks on Sunday, the computer is now projecting that San Francisco is going to finish with the top seed in the NFC.
And then there's the NFC East. The computer has the Eagles falling backward into the division title with an 8-9 record. Yup, we have the NFC East winner finishing with a losing record.
Here's the projected NFC playoff field (with each team's current record):
1. 49ers (5-0) -- NFC West champion
2. Vikings (5-0) -- NFC North champion
3. Panthers (2-2) -- NFC South champion
4. Eagles (2-3) -- NFC East champion
5. Seahawks (3-2)
6. Lions (3-2)
7. Rams (2-3)
The biggest surprise here might be the fact that the BEARS are projected to miss the postseason. After losing to the Packers on Sunday, our projection has them finishing at 9-8, which will leave them one spot out of the wild card.
Speaking of the wild card, the Rams are still projected to make it despite their three losses because they're still viewed as a strong team. The three losses have come against three teams that have a combined 12-3 record. Not only that, but the Rams have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule out of any team in the NFC, which should help them down the stretch. Five of the Rams' 12 remaining gams will come against teams that currently have one win or less.
Now that we know who's in the playoffs, let's see who's going to make it to Super Bowl LXI.
Wild card round
AFC
- (2) Bills 28-20 over (7) Patriots. The Patriots just beat the Bills in Week 4, but that was an early-season contest. What happens if they play in the playoffs? Our computer says the Bills would win a wild one-score game.
- (3) Jaguars 29-23 over (6) Bengals. These two teams just faced off in Week 4, with the Jaguars beating the Bengals in Cincinnati. In this game, the Jags would be hosting, and the computer thinks they'd once again come out on top.
- (4) Ravens 25-21 over (5) Broncos. This would be one of the most entertaining games of the wild-card round, with the Broncos' defense trying to slow down Lamar Jackson. In the end, Jackson would do just enough to help his team advance.
NFC
- (2) Vikings 21-20 over (7) Rams. If there's one defense that can slow down Matthew Stafford and the Rams, it's probably the one in Minnesota. That's exactly what happens here with the Vikings pulling out a win.
- (6) Lions 30-28 over (3) Panthers. We get a rematch of the Cat Bowl. Back in Week 4, the Panthers beat the Lions 32-26, but our computer has the Lions getting their revenge with a win in this game.
- (5) Seahawks 20-19 over (4) Eagles. Yes, our projection has the Eagles winning the NFC East title, but they won't get to celebrate for very long because our projection has them getting knocked out of the playoffs in the wild card round.
And now, we're down to our final eight teams.
Divisional round
AFC
- (1) Chiefs 27-23 over (4) Ravens. For the second time in four years, we're getting Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Ravens, this game goes a lot like the last meeting with the Chiefs once again coming out on top.
- (2) Bills 27-24 over (3) Jaguars. This game turns into déjà vu for the Jaguars. One year after getting eliminated by the Bills in the playoffs, the Jags once again see their season end at the hands of Josh Allen.
NFC
- (1) 49ers 32-27 over (6) Lions. These two teams met in the 2023 NFC title game, with the 49ers coming out on top after the Lions blew a 24-7 lead. This time around, the Lions won't have to worry about blowing the lead because the 49ers stay in front for nearly the entire game.
- (2) Vikings 21-19 over (5) Seahawks. This game would feature two of the best defenses in the NFL going at it. In the end, a couple of turnovers by Sam Darnold end up being the difference as the Vikings advance to the NFC title game for the first time since 2017.
If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills and Vikings) and two teams (49ers and Chiefs) that have faced each other in two of the past seven Super Bowls.
Conference title games
AFC Championship
- (1) Chiefs 26-23 over (2) Bills. At some point, Josh Allen and the Bills will finally get a playoff win over the Chiefs, but it won't happen here. Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 against the Bills in the postseason, and he boosts that record to 5-0 with a win.
NFC Championship
- (1) 49ers 27-20 over (2) Vikings. The Vikings' fairy tale run ends with a thud at Levi's Stadium. A win here would have given the Vikings their first Super Bowl trip since 1976, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores can't quite figure out how to slow down Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium
- (1) 49ers 25-24 over (1) Chiefs. According to our projection, the third time will be the charm for the 49ers. If this Super Bowl happens, it would mark the THIRD time in seven years that these two teams have met in the big game. The 49ers blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in a 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV. Four years later, the 49ers blew another 10-point lead, this time in a 25-22 loss to the Chiefs that ended in overtime. Kyle Shanahan finally gets the monkey off his back by leading the 49ers to a win here to earn his first Lombardi Trophy. If that happens, it would mark the 49ers' first Super Bowl win since 1994.
We've been doing a projection every week since the start of the season, and here's a look at what the projected Super Bowl has been each week.
- Preseason prediction: Rams over Ravens
- After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens
- After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs
- After Week 3: Chiefs over Vikings
- After Week 4: Seahawks over Chiefs
- After Week 5: 49ers over Chiefs
There's definitely been a Chiefs' theme in our projections so far.
Right now, the 49ers are on top of the football world, and things could stay that way for a while. Over the next five weeks, the 49ers are only scheduled to play one game against a team that currently has a winning record (Raiders), so this team could easily be 9-0 heading into their Week 11 showdown in Mexico against the currently undefeated Vikings.
