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USATSI

It's Thanksgiving Week and we all know what that means around here: Instead of football picks, I'm going to share all my 10 favorite Thanksgiving recipes with you! 

As everyone knows, Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday and if you didn't know that, now you do. If it were up to me, Thanksgiving would be held on the fourth Thursday of EVERY month, not just November. There's no reason November should get all the glory. The only downside of my idea is that if we have Thanksgiving every month then turkeys would probably go extinct, so it's probably for the best that I have no power over when Thanksgiving is held. 

Also, there will be no recipes. I don't even know three recipes, so I couldn't share 10 even if I wanted to. The only Thanksgiving food I know how to make is mashed potatoes and that's because the recipe only involves one ingredient: Potatoes that get mashed. 

Now that I'm saying all of this out loud, I now know why my family only puts me in charge of alcohol at Thanksgiving. Speaking of Thanksgiving, let's get to the picks, starting with the three games that are going down on Thursday.

NFL Week 13 picks

Chicago (4-7) at Detroit (10-1)

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Bears (+10.5 at FanDuel)

For most of NFL history, the Lions were an afterthought on Thanksgiving. You only watched them if you bet on the game or if you wanted to avoid your family or both. This year, the Lions are must-see TV and I'm not just saying that because the game is on CBS. 

The Lions are actually fun to watch: They rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards, they rank sixth in passing yards and they've scored more points than any other team. If you have a family member who's never watched football before, make them watch the Lions play. They will fall in love instantly. 

The fact that the Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL is likely going to be a problem for the Bears and here's why: Since the start of Week 8, Chicago's defense has given up more yardage than any other team in the NFL. They've surrendered a total of 1,977 yards over that span and to give you an idea of how bad that is, the Cowboys (1,930) and Jaguars (1,916) are the only other teams that have even given up more than 1,900 yards. 

I think what I'm trying to say here is that if the Lions are thankful for one thing on Thanksgiving, it's the fact that they get to face the Bears defense. This seems like a game where the Lions will be able to score a lot of points so the only way an upset is going to happen is if the Bears offense can keep up. 

If you had asked me three weeks ago whether the Bears could keep up, I would've said no and picked the Lions to win 47-14. However, the Bears offense has looked completely rejuvenated since firing Shane Waldron on Nov. 12. Under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, the Bears have averaged 395.4 yards per game, which is more than 100 yards higher than what they were averaging under Waldron (277.7). 

With their offensive resurgence, I thought about picking the Bears to pull off the upset, but this team has the worst luck imaginable and I can't pick against that. Over the past five weeks, they lost on a Hail Mary to the Commanders, they lost on a blocked field goal to the Packers and they lost in overtime to the Vikings. 

Even Ari Gold from Entourage has noticed all of these crazy losses. 

Yes, Jeremy, you should start a support group and you should do it ASAP. Bears fans need each other right now. 

Anyway, all these close losses tell me that the Bears might be slightly better than their record suggests, but probably still not good enough to beat the Lions. 

The pick: Lions 30-23 over Bears

N.Y. Giants (2-9) at Dallas (4-7)

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Cowboys (-3.5 at FanDuel)

I don't want to tell anyone what their napping plan should be on Thanksgiving Day, but if you're going to take a nap on Thursday, you have a three-hour window to do it and that window starts as soon as this game kicks off. I don't want to say this is the worst Thanksgiving QB matchup in NFL history, but it has to be close: We have Tommy DeVito against Cooper Rush. 

We haven't seen anything like this in a Cowboys Thanksgiving game since Dallas sent out Chad Hutchinson to face Danny Wuerffel in 2002. Of course, that game ended up being so bad it was good. Wuerffel threw three interceptions and Hutchinson only completed 12 passes, but two of those went for touchdowns and the Cowboys ended up beating Wuerffel's Washington team 27-20. 

If we get anything remotely like that in this game, I will consider it a success, but I'm not counting on it based on how the Giants played last week. 

The Giants got destroyed 30-7 by the Buccaneers in Week 12 and a big reason that happened is because, apparently, everyone has given up on Brian Daboll, at least that was my takeaway from these Malik Nabers comments. 

When a rookie is calling out the rest of the team for being soft, that probably means they're being soft. After scoring exactly seven points against the Buccaneers, the Giants now get to face a Cowboys defense that's getting healthy and starting to play better. 

The first start of DeVito's career actually came against the Cowboys last season and he threw for just 86 yards in a 49-17 loss. The Cowboys probably won't score 49 here, but I still think they win. 

The Cowboys have been horrible at home this year, going 0-5, so this game will probably be closer than anyone thinks, but I don't think Dallas is bad enough to blow it. 

The pick: Cowboys 24-17 over Giants 

Miami (5-6) at Green Bay (8-3)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread pick: Dolphins (+3.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

The NFL clearly hates the Miami Dolphins, because that's the only way to explain why the league would force them to play at Green Bay in late November. 

Whenever I see that the Dolphins are playing on the road in a cold-weather city in late November, the first thing I have to do before making my pick is check the weather for the game and I have some bad news for the Dolphins: It's going to be cold in Green Bay. 

For most teams, that's not a huge issue, but it's kind of an issue for the Dolphins because no team in the NFL hates cold weather more than them. The game-time temperature on Thursday night is expected to be about 26 degrees, which is bad news for the Dolphins, because they're 0-12 in their past 12 games where the kickoff temperature was below 42 degrees, including the playoffs. The Dolphins and cold-weather just don't mix. There's a reason you never see Dolphins swimming in the arctic ocean. At least, I don't think you do. I didn't actually do any research before writing that sentence. 

Normally, the weather forecast would be enough to get me to pick against the Dolphins, but I'm not sure I'm going to do that here and that's mainly because of Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins QB has been so hot during the month of November that he might melt the frozen tundra at Lambea Field. 

Since the month started, only three quarterbacks have thrown for at least 1,000 yards with at least seven TD passes and a completion percentage of 70% or more: 

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB rating: 121.5): 1,043 yards, 10 TD passes, one interception, 77.3% completion rate
  • Patrick Mahomes (QB rating: 105.2): 1,022 yards, 10 TD passes, two interceptions, 71.8% completion rate
  • Jared Goff (QB rating: 101.3): 1,066 yards, seven TD passes, five interception, 70.9% completion rate 

The Lions and Chiefs are tied for the best record in the NFL at 10-1, and then you have Tua, who has actually been playing better than both of them during the month of November. The fact that Tua is playing well could be a problem for the Packers because every loss they've had has come against a team with a good offense. The Packers have faced four teams this year that rank in the top-10 in terms of offensive yards per game and they've gone 1-3 in those games. Their only win came on Sunday against San Francisco, but the 49ers were starting a backup quarterback, so I'm not sure I can even count that. 

I think this is going to be a high-scoring shootout and it's going to end with the Dolphins finally winning a game in cold-weather so that we all stop talking about it, even though we probably won't stop talking about it. 

The pick: Dolphins 27-24 over Packers

Philadelphia (9-2) at Baltimore (8-4) 

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Ravens (-2.5 at BetMGM)

I'm still not sure if the Eagles are the NFC's version of the Ravens or if the Ravens are the AFC's version of the Eagles, but I have come to the conclusion that Philadelphia and Baltimore are the same team.

Both teams made the playoffs last year, but they both fell short of the Super Bowl, so they both went out during the offseason and made a move that you don't usually see NFL teams make these days: They both paid big money to a running back and the gamble has paid off immensely for both teams. 

The Eagles signed Saquon Barkley while the Ravens added Derrick Henry, and now, as we head into Week 13, Philadelphia and Baltimore are the top-two rushing teams in the league. Barkley has 1,392 rushing yards through 11 games and is on pace for 2,151 yards this season, which would smash the NFL single-season record. And Henry isn't too far behind him. The Ravens running back has 1,325 yards, which ranks second in the NFL behind only Barkley (And to put their totals in perspective, no other running back in the NFL even has 950 yards this season). 

Basically, these two guys are human battering rams, so the big question is: Which defense will perform better?

There are only seven teams in the NFL surrendering less than 100 rushing yards per game this year and two of them are playing in this game. The Ravens are giving up just 77.9 yards per game, which ranks second in the NFL while the Eagles rank seventh overall, surrendering 99.5 yards per game. 

I feel like that small edge might be enough to push the Ravens over the top. 

Now, before I officially make my pick for this game, I should point out that If I've learned one thing about making picks over the years, it's that there's no fan base that loves throwing my picks back in my face more than Eagles fans. Every time I pick against the Eagles, they instantly let me know on Twitter/X that my pick is dumb and since the Eagles almost never lose, they always get the last laugh. 

In Week 12, I picked the Eagles to lose the Rams, and let me just say, the Eagles definitely did not lose. 

Guys, I don't think he thought my prediction was actually amazing. 

Call me crazy, but I don't think this guy actually thinks my pick was "Great." 

I also got another tweet from a guy who said his brother-in-law is an Eagles fan who pukes every time he reads my writing. Well, I have some bad news for that guy, because I think my pick for this game is going to make his brother-in-law puke. I just hope he doesn't do it at the Thanksgiving dinner table. 

The pick: Ravens 34-31 over Eagles

San Francisco (5-6) at Buffalo (9-2)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread pick (If Brock Purdy plays): 49ers (+7 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread pick (If Brock Purdy doesn't play): Bills (-6.5 at FanDuel)

Remember all that stuff I said about the Dolphins' playing in cold-weather, well, I think it also kind of applies to this game. 

As someone who lived in California for six years, let me just say there is nothing more traumatic than being forced to leave the West Coast for a trip to a cold-weather city in late November. There's a reason people don't take Thanksgiving vacations to Buffalo. It's too cold. 

As a general rule of thumb, I try not to visit any city where the temperature is going to be colder than my age. If the 49ers followed that rule, 20% of their roster wouldn't be able to make the trip to Buffalo this week because it's supposed to about 30 degrees at kickoff. Since hiring Kyle Shanahan in 2017, the 49ers have played exactly nine games where the temperature has been under 45 degrees and they've gone 4-5 in those game. Although that's not a huge sample size, that's not a big deal, because if I've learned one thing about sample sizes and cold weather, it's that you don't need to have a huge sample size because we have ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY as our sample size: Everyone hates cold weather... unless they live in cold weather and the Bills players live in cold weather. 

The last time the 49ers played in cold weather actually came in Week 12 against the Packers and they lost that game 38-10. Of course, that loss had a lot more to do with San Francisco's quarterback situation than with the weather. The 49ers were forced to start Brandon Allen because Brock Purdy was dealing with a shoulder injury. 

If Allen has to start again this week, I imagine the game will look a lot like it did in Week 12 against the Packers: The offense will sputter and the 49ers will get blown out. 

If Purdy starts, that will certainly make things more interesting, but even if he's on the field, I don't think he'll be magically recovered from his right shoulder injury. You know what makes an injury worse? DOING ANYTHING IN COLD WEATHER. It will feel fine for a second, but as soon as your body warms up, it will feel terrible. I once tried to shovel snow with a shoulder injury and that lasted for about five minutes. I have since retired from shoveling snow. 

If Purdy is on the field, but he's not 100%, that could be a problem for the 49ers. With an ailing shoulder, that could impact his ability to throw, which I'm only mentioning, because he didn't throw the ball downfield a single time in Week 10 or Week 11. 

If Purdy's shoulder prevents him from making deep throws, that's a chunk of the field the Bills defense won't have to worry about, which means they'll be able to focus on taking away the short stuff. 

When it comes to cold weather, the Bills are 14-1 in their past 15 regular-season games where the temperature was 45 degrees or less and that only loss came in overtime.  That's good enough to sell me on taking the Bills. 

The pick: Bills 30-27 over 49ers (If Brock Purdy plays)
The pick: Bills 31-17 over 49ers (If Brock Purdy doesn't play)

NFL Week 13 picks: All the rest

Chiefs 23-16 over Raiders
Chargers 27-20 over Falcons
Vikings 26-23 over Cardinals
Commanders 21-17 over Titans
Colts 20-16 over Patriots
Bengals 23-20 over Steelers
Seahawks 20-17 over Jets
Texans 27-16 over Jaguars
Rams 30-23 over Saints
Buccaneers 31-20 over Panthers
Broncos 24-13 over Browns

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Buccaneers would beat the Giants by double-digits and guess what happened? The Buccaneers beat the Giants by double-digits. Now, did I know that Baker Mayfield was going to steal Tommy DeVito's soul and then crush it on national television? Of course, I did. Baker Mayfield is a ruthless competitor who will do anything to win at all costs and that includes stealing another player's touchdown celebration for his own enjoyment. 

If DeVito wants to get revenge on Baker, the Giants QB will score a touchdown on Thanksgiving and then celebrate by hugging his family, which I guess would count as revenge since I don't think Mayfield will be hugging his family on Thanksgiving. 

By the way, that entire story is actually kind of crazy and if you want the full details, you can get them here. 

Worst pick: Heading into Week 12, the Cardinals had lost five straight games to the Seahawks, and yet, I still picked Arizona to beat Seattle. I thought Kyler Murray was going to go off and throw multiple touchdown passes, but instead, he only threw one touchdown pass in the entire game and it went to the other team. 

I expect that kind of throw from Will Levis, but not from Murray. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (9-2), Jaguars (9-2), Raiders (9-2), Chiefs (9-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (Nine straight correct picks)

My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (4-7), Steelers (4-7), Cardinals (4-7). 
Longest losing streak: Browns (Four straight incorrect picks)

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks record

Straight up in Week 12: 8-5
SU overall: 108-71

Against the spread in Week 12: 6-7
ATS overall: 91-85-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably out purchasing some potatoes and a bottle of tequila for Thanksgiving.