NFL Week 14 picks: Our experts face off on Cowboys at Lions, Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen, other crucial matchups

It's been a wacky NFL season -- in a good way. This is actually the first time in NFL history there are five divisions with a lead of less than one game this late in a season! The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers lead the way at 6-6 in the AFC North with the Cincinnati Bengals lurking, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are both 9-3, and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are both 8-4.

This week in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys put their three-game win streak on the line against Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen face off in Buffalo, and rookies Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders meet for the first time in Cleveland. Times are also getting desperate for the 6-6 Kansas City Chiefs, who host the Houston Texans on "Sunday Night Football." 

Which teams should you pick in Week 14, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Wednesday. New users can get $150 in bonus bets on a winning $5 wager.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3) (TNF)

Dajani (Cowboys +3): Are the Cowboys "America's Team" again? I don't know, there's something endearing about seeing a high-powered offense that had no defense to start the year experience a defensive turnaround to get above .500. Shoutout Quinnen Williams, Logan Wilson, DeMarvion Overshown and Shavon Revel Jr. As for the Lions, this defense has not been up to snuff, and the offense could be without Sam LaPorta AND Amon-Ra St. Brown. Detroit ranks first in yards per play with St. Brown on the field since 2021, and 25th without him. Prediction: Cowboys 26, Lions 23

Dubin (Lions -3): I know Dallas is red hot. I know Detroit is dealing with some injuries. But I have the feeling that one of these two teams is a playoff team, and it's the home team, which means they need to win this game. The Cowboys defense has looked better these last few weeks but has also played two broken offenses in Vegas and Philly and then given up four touchdowns to Kansas City. I think the Lions can score to keep up with the Cowboys here, and then pull it out at the end. Prediction: Lions 32, Cowboys 28

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Dajani (Bengals +5.5): I knew the Bengals were going to cover the spread vs. Baltimore with Joe Burrow back in the lineup, but I didn't expect them to actually win the game! Cincinnati is 3-0 with Burrow in the lineup this season, and 1-8 without him. If we go back to last season, Burrow has won eight straight starts -- which is tied for the longest win streak of his career. Furthermore, Burrow is 2-0 against Josh Allen, and 14-3 ATS in his career as an underdog of three or more points. Again, I'm not expecting the Bengals to actually win outright, but I'll take 5.5 points. Prediction: Bills 28, Bengals 24

Dubin (Bills -5.5): One of the things almost every team can do is run all over the Bengals. We just saw the Bills run all over the Steelers to the tune of 249 yards. James Cook has a chance to really go off here and help the Bills control the game throughout. If the Bengals get Tee Higgins back, then the Bengals' explosive offense could obviously keep pace, but I'm comfortable backing Buffalo's run game here. Prediction: Bills 26, Bengals 20

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Dajani (Jaguars +1.5): A massive, massive game in the AFC South. I find it fascinating that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 -- going 0-9 during this stretch. The Colts have not looked fantastic as of late, and you have to wonder how much Daniel Jones' fibula injury is affecting him. The Jaguars defense is not the Texans defense, but this is the same unit that destroyed Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, 35-6, a couple weeks ago. You never know what you're going to get with Trevor Lawrence, but I'll take Jacksonville in a small upset. Prediction: Jaguars 30, Colts 27

Dubin (Jaguars +1.5): The shine is coming off the Colts, especially with their quarterback dealing with a fractured leg and barely able to move in recent weeks. (He ran once for one yard in Indy's loss to Houston on Sunday.) Jonathan Taylor is going to be asked to win this game all by himself, and I just am not sure it's fair to expect that of him. The Jags have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry on the season. Prediction: Jaguars 23, Colts 21

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Dajani (Browns -3.5): Just a PSA, next week you're going to have to hear debates about why Shedeur Sanders should have been drafted above Cam Ward, because the Browns are going to win this game. It won't be because of Sanders' play, but because of the Browns' vaunted defense and Myles Garrett's 10 sacks on Ward. It looked like the Titans were making progress in recent weeks, but then Week 13 happened. In a 25-3 loss to the Jaguars, Tennessee went 2 of 12 on third downs and recorded just 188 yards of total offense. Believe it or not, 70 of those yards came on the first drive. For the second year in a row, Tennessee is the worst team in football. Prediction: Browns 17, Titans 6

Dubin (Titans +3.5): The Browns are a different team at home than they are on the road, so I expect them to win this game, largely on the strength of their defense. Myles Garrett might break the all-time sack record this weekend, given the matchup advantages he has here. But Cleveland's offense isn't nearly efficient or explosive enough to bet on the Browns winning by all that many points, so we have to predict a close game here. Prediction: Browns 17, Titans 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

Dajani (Steelers +5.5): The Ravens are definitely winning this game (in my opinion), so the issue is the spread. The Ravens have failed to cover in three straight games, and are 1-5 ATS in their past six home games. As for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin is 13-3-2 ATS and 10-8 straight up as an underdog vs. the Ravens, and has lost by four or more points in just seven of 36 matchups vs. Baltimore. Whoa. I'm just going to hope that Aaron Rodgers' little film birthday party he had with teammates helped. Prediction: Ravens 23, Steelers 20

Dubin (Ravens -5.5): Pittsburgh's offense just doesn't have enough to hang -- even with a Ravens offense that is struggling in its own right. The Ravens should be able to run the ball on the Steelers. Presumably not as well as the Bills did last week, obviously. But getting Derrick Henry downhill more often should help get the passing game in rhythm as well. Lamar Jackson can't be held down like this for much longer... can he? Prediction: Ravens 23, Steelers 13

Ranking seven NFL Week 14 games with huge playoff implications: Lions-Cowboys, Chiefs-Texans loom large

Zachary Pereles

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Dajani (Packers -6.5): No offense to Caleb Williams, but the Bears find themselves at 9-3 because of a defense that forces turnovers and a fantastic rushing attack. However, the Packers have turned the ball over an NFL-low seven times this season, and allow under 100 rushing yards per game. Green Bay is 3-0 vs. the NFC North this season after going 1-5 in the division last year. I understand 6.5 points is a pretty big number in a divisional matchup, but I'll take the Packers to cover the spread Sunday in the fourth quarter. Prediction: Packers 28, Bears 20

Dubin (Bears +6.5): I'm fascinated to see the matchup between the Bears' run game and the Packers' run defense. Chicago has forcefully rammed the ball down its opponents' throats since taking its bye back in Week 5, while Green Bay has been able to slow almost any run game in its path. The Bears can scheme up explosive plays in the passing game but aren't particularly consistent down to down, and I trust Green Bay's passing game more at the moment. The Packers come away with a win here, but the Bears keep it close. Prediction: Packers 26, Bears 21

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) (SNF)

Dajani (Texans +3.5): If this number was Chiefs -1.5, I would take it. But if you're giving me the hook against a 6-6 team that has a losing ATS record, I'm probably going to side there. The Texans rank No. 1 in both scoring defense and total defense and allow an NFL-low 11.0 passing yards per game outside the pocket this season. That's usually where Patrick Mahomes thrives. Additionally, Houston is 4-0 in one-score games during this current four-game win streak. I didn't think C.J. Stroud was perfect in his return to the lineup last week, but he wasn't a disaster either. Houston loses by three points. Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 21

Dubin (Chiefs -3.5): I'm going down with the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid ship. Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 16

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (MNF)

Dajani (Eagles -2.5): Yes, I have obvious questions about the Eagles as legitimate contenders, but I don't like that Justin Herbert is going to try to play days after having surgery for a fracture in his left hand. I actually really like getting the Eagles under a field goal here. Additionally, I was surprised to learn that the Eagles are 7-5 ATS this season while the Chargers are 6-6. Prediction: Eagles 27, Chargers 20

Dubin (Eagles -2.5): The Justin Herbert hand surgery has me off the Chargers in this game. Even if they get Omarion Hampton back, I don't know how effective we can expect the offense to be -- even against a defense that has struggled the last two weeks. We know the type of ceiling Vic Fangio's unit can reach. Do I trust the Eagles' offense at all here? Nope. But I'll back the team whose quarterback at least is not injured. Prediction: Eagles 21, Chargers 17