Not a great betting week overall, but we did go 3-2 against the spread on the top five picks. We knew the Buffalo Bills would defeat the San Francisco 49ers by double digits and the Dallas Cowboys would cover four points vs. the New York Giants. The Seattle Seahawks also had a nice comeback against Aaron Rodgers' New York Jets. However, the Detroit Lions burned us by taking their foot off the gas in the second half vs. the Chicago Bears, and then the Kansas City Chiefs refused to win in convincing fashion.
This week, Justin Herbert gets another shot at Patrick Mahomes, the Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals will meet in an interesting NFC West showdown and the Bears begin the Thomas Brown era vs. the 49ers. If you haven't yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart.
All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Top-five picks ATS record: 27-32-1
Overall ATS record: 86-106-3
Straight up record: 123-72
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
This is the game of the week. The 11-1 Lions and 9-3 Packers have a combined win percentage of .833. It's the best combined record entering a Thursday game since 2011 (minimum 10 games played each). Al Michaels rejoices.
We all know the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL, and they received some extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving. However, that extra rest didn't help, as offensive tackle Taylor Decker, defensive lineman D.J. Reader and cornerback Carlton Davis are among the players already ruled out.
The Packers also got a mini bye after defeating the Miami Dolphins last Thursday night in convincing fashion, and I think they could be ready to take off. Green Bay has won seven out of its last eight games after a 2-2 start, and is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four Thursday road games. Remember, Jordan Love upset the Lions in Detroit last Thanksgiving. I think he can do it again.
The pick: Packers +3.5
Projected score: Packers 28-27
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I feel gross backing the Titans, especially after that blowout in Washington, but Will Levis has actually made strides since returning to the lineup. Still, that in itself hasn't made the Titans a good team. If committing penalties was a sport, Tennessee would be Super Bowl bound.
From CBS Sports Research:
— Jordan Dajani (@JordanDajani) December 4, 2024
The 11 penalties the Titans committed in the first half vs. Washington were the most committed by any team in ANY half since the 2013 Jets.
Tennessee has 100 penalties on the year. They commit 8.3 penalties per game, which leads the league. pic.twitter.com/4wF33ibqy5
The Jaguars, on the other hand, have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and just lost Trevor Lawrence for the rest of the season. Jacksonville has now lost five straight games, and eight straight true road games. The Jags also have the worst defense in the NFL, as they are the only unit to allow more than 400 yards of total offense per game. I'll take the Titans at home.
The pick: Titans -3.5
Projected score: Titans 23-17
Will Nick Westbrook-Ikhine score his ninth touchdown in as many games? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This will be the third matchup in NFL history featuring two quarterbacks coming off of 400-yard performances, and the first since Ryan Fitzpatrick went toe-to-toe with Ben Roethlisberger in 2018. The Steelers are undefeated against the spread with Russell Wilson at quarterback in games where he doesn't play in a blizzard. Yes, that loss came against the Browns, but Cleveland is on a short week after the defense surrendered 400 yards of total offense to the Denver Broncos on Monday night. This is the Steelers' first home game in three weeks, and I think the home crowd will have an impact on the Browns offense.
The pick: Steelers -6.5
Projected score: Steelers 24-17
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
This is almost a perfect spot for the Bears. If only the game was being played in Chicago. The Bears get a banged-up 49ers team down their top two running backs after getting blown out in snowy Buffalo on Sunday night, and Chicago just fired head coach Matt Ebeflus. Sometimes teams get a boost after making that change. Just ask the New Orleans Saints.
I think Thomas Brown has a legitimate chance to win the full-time job, and he quickly went from passing game coordinator to lead man. Caleb Williams improved with Brown as his offensive coordinator. He's thrown five touchdowns compared to zero interceptions since Shane Waldron was canned, and actually just set a rookie record by attempting 232 straight passes without throwing an interception.
The Bears are 7-4-1 ATS while the 49ers are 4-8 ATS. Give me the Bears to keep it close.
The pick: Bears +4
Projected score: 49ers 23-21
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)
It's incredible that the Bengals have a worse record than the Cowboys right now. The defense is letting the offense down, and it was tough to watch during last week's loss to the Steelers. Joe Burrow is just the second quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games while losing each contest. Who else did it? Andrew Luck, and then he retired early.
The Cowboys had a nice victory over the Giants on Thanksgiving, but I'm betting on the Bengals to simply outscore Cooper Rush and Co. Hopefully this team will come out and continue to fight, just like the Cowboys have.
The pick: Bengals -5.5
Projected score: Bengals 30-21
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