After spending the past 24 hours talking with Santa, I have some good news for everyone: I've been informed that every single one of you has made the nice list this year, so you're getting my Week 16 picks as a present! Is it the best present ever? No, because the best present ever would be the Hallmark Channel sending me a personalized copy of the Chiefs' Christmas movie, but getting picks is a solid second-best present ever.
Speaking of the Chiefs' Christmas movie, I finally got around to watching 'A Holiday Touchdown: A Chiefs Love Story' and let me just say, it was actually good. I'm now convinced the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl.
If you're wondering whether you can trust my opinion about the movie, the answer is that I've watched way more Hallmark Christmas movies than I care to admit, so yes, you can trust my opinion.
I'm not going to give the plot away, but I will say that I knew it was going to be a good movie the second that Catrick Mahomes showed up on screen.
Speaking of Catrick Mahomes, the Chiefs did not need to call him to replace Patrick Mahomes because despite dealing with an ankle injury, he looked like himself in Kansas City's win over the Texans on Saturday. Then, in the late Saturday game, the Ravens clinched a playoff berth by beating their AFC North rivals in the Steelers.
Now, we head to Sunday. Let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 16 picks
Philadelphia (12-2) at Washington (9-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The last time these two teams met came back in Week 11, although Commanders fans probably don't remember much of that game because I'm guessing they've already repressed the memory of it. And if they haven't, then they've been having nightmares for the past five weeks about Saquon Barkley, who plowed his way through Washington's defense for 146 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-18 win by Philly. My therapist tells me that repressing memories isn't good for you, but if your only options are repression or having nightmares about Saquon Barkley, then you might want to go with repression.
Not only did the Eagles win that Week 11 game, but they won their next game after that and their next game after that and their next game after.... And you know what, I'm going to get straight to the point: The Eagles haven't lost a game since September. I'm not sure if you have a calendar in front of you, but September was so long ago that it was a time when people still thought the Saints were good. LOL.
Anyway, let's rewind to September: The Eagles closed out the month with a loss to the Buccaneers that dropped them to 2-2. The Eagles then went into their Week 5 bye where I'm assuming they made some sort of deal with the devil because THEY HAVEN'T LOST SINCE. The most impressive fact during their 10-game winning streak is that they've held nine of their 10 opponents to 20 points or less. On average, the Eagles are surrendering just 15.1 points per game during their winning streak. No one can score on them. No one can even move the ball on them.
There have only been NINE games all season in the NFL where a team was held to under 165 yards and the Eagles have been responsible for THREE of those. In Week 15, the Steelers totaled just 163 yards against the Eagles defense.
If you can't score against them, maybe you can beat the Eagles in a low-scoring slugfest? Wrong. This team ranks in the top-eight in points scored. They will score on you and you won't be able to keep up because the defense is too good. I'm starting to think there's no way to beat this team, which might explain why they've won 10 games in a row.
I keep waiting for the winning streak to end, but I'm not sure that's going to happen.
I thought if someone slowed down Saquon Barkley that the Eagles might lose, but the Steelers did that, and they still got hammered by two touchdowns. I thought the Eagles might implode down the stretch like they did last season, but that's clearly not going to happen. I thought A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts might fight each other, but they're now best friends.
The only team that can stop the Eagles is the Eagles.
With a win in this game, the Eagles will clinch the NFC East, so they might as well get the t-shirts ready.
The pick: Eagles 27-20 over Commanders
Minnesota (12-2) at Seattle (8-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
I'm not sure what's on Mike Macdonald's Christmas list, but I'm guessing that he'd really like Santa to deliver him a healthy knee for Geno Smith, because if he's banged up, the Seahawks have no chance of winning the NFC West. I don't think Santa delivers healthy knees, because that would be weird, but maybe he'll make an exception in this case, because the Seahawks are in desperation mode.
Of course, even if Smith can play on Sunday, that might not matter, because he doesn't play defense and that's Seattle's biggest issue right now. The Seahawks have had some serious trouble stopping the run and if you watched them play on Sunday night in Week 15, you got a glimpse of how bad things are. The Packers basically just gave the ball to Josh Jacobs on their first two drives and that almost instantly led to two touchdowns.
I'm guessing the Vikings will do something similar, so if Aaron Jones is on your fantasy team, you can go ahead and start celebrating your fantasy championship now, because you're going to win this week (Unless the other team has Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley, then you're just cooked).
Even if Geno is banged up, there's one thing that should have the Seahawks feeling good about this game and it's the fact that the Vikings have struggled in outdoor games since the calendar hit November. Let's take a look at their last three:
Week 10: at Jacksonville. Vikings barely win 12-7 in a game where Sam Darnold throws three interceptions.
Week 11: at Tennessee. Vikings win 23-13 against a bad Titans team.
Week 12: at Chicago. Vikings get taken to overtime in a 30-27 win over the Bears.
That's three wins by an average of six points. I think we know what that means: Vikings by six.
The pick (If Geno Smith plays): Vikings 30-24 over Seahawks
The pick (If Geno Smith doesn't play): Vikings 30-13 over Seahawks
NFL Week 16 picks: All the rest
Falcons 27-17 over Giants
Lions 31-20 over Bears
Bills 31-17 over Patriots
Bengals 27-20 over Browns
Colts 19-16 over Titans
Rams 23-16 over Jets
Cardinals 24-17 over Panthers
Jaguars 20-16 over Raiders
49ers 26-23 over Dolphins
Buccaneers 31-24 over Cowboys
Packers 34-13 over Saints
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Rams would upset the 49ers on Thursday night and guess what happened? The Rams upset the 49ers on Thursday night. Although my prediction was correct, I have to admit, there was one thing I didn't see coming and that was De'Vondre Cambell QUITTING on the team in the middle of the game. The 49ers told Campbell to take the field in the third quarter, but Campbell decided to didn't want to play, so he went to the locker room. Cambell has now been suspended three games by the team, which makes no sense, because they should be sending him a Thank You card that includes a giant Christmas bonus. The 49ers offense choked away any chance at making the playoffs with an ugly performance against the Rams, but NO ONE is talking about that, because we've all been distracted by what Campbell's doing. That's the true meaning of taking one for the team.
Worst pick: If there's one thing I've learned in all of my years of making picks, it's that you should never pick the Panthers to win because nothing good ever happens when you do. Well, guess what I did in Week 15? I picked the Panthers to beat the Cowboys and as soon as I made the pick, I knew it was going to be wrong. The Panthers are 1-0 when playing outside the United States this year, but 2-11 when playing inside the United States. What that means is that if this game had been played in Barbados, it would have made sense to pick the Panthers, because they never lose in foreign countries, but this game wasn't played in Barbados, it was played in Charlotte, which is basically the opposite of Barbados. I'm never picking the Panthers to win again.
Finally, if you're still reading, you might be wondering which teams I've done well picking this year and here's the answer:
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Chiefs (12-2), Raiders (12-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (12 straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (6-8), Ravens (6-8), Steelers (6-8)
Longest losing streak: Bills (Two straight incorrect picks)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Finally, happy holidays everyone, and don't forget, if you need a last minute gift idea, just get everyone in your family a DVD copy of "Fast Five." They'll love it and my royalty check will go way up next month, so everyone wins.
And remember, next week's picks will be coming out on Christmas Eve (Tuesday, Dec. 24)! So don't forget to keep your eye out for those.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 15: 12-4
SU overall: 144-80
Against the spread in Week 15: 10-6
ATS overall: 114-106-4
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably in the middle of a Hallmark Christmas movie marathon.