The NFL was essentially breakdancing on the tightrope last week, with every game seemingly coming down to the wire. In all, 12 games were decided by a single possession in Week 3, which tied the NFL record for a single week.
Naturally, these tightly contested affairs produced some wildly entertaining games and a slew of upsets, making handicapping the slate quite an ordeal. That led us to a 6-9-1 ATS record and an 8-8 straight-up record for the weekend. Not terrible, but not where we want to live week in, week out. That said, I was able to go 3-2 ATS within my locks of the week, with Marcus Mariota's Commanders and the red-hot Raiders playing spoiler for a clean sweep.
As we close out the first month of the regular season, I'll look to keep the momentum going by staying above .500 with my locks of the week, and claw us back over even for the overall ATS record for the season. We'll begin, as always, with my five locks of the week, which include three road teams pulling off the outright wins.
2026 record
- Locks of the Week ATS: 8-7-0
- ATS: 22-25-1
- ML: 32-16
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Both clubs enter Week 4 after rather demoralizing losses on the road. Case Keenum sliced Philly up on "Monday Night Football," and they now have to turn around and square off against the Matthew Stafford-led Rams on a short week. Meanwhile, L.A. lost a heartbreaker in Denver, which dropped the preseason "superteam" to 1-2 through the first three weeks. Each of these teams has yet to live up to their lofty expectations so far this year, but I think the Rams are in a better spot to pull off the win here.
Upon first glance, you might be eager to take the Eagles as a home dog, but they've historically not been kind to bettors in this setting. Since 2021 (Sirianni's first season as head coach), Philadelphia is 0-5 straight up (1-4 ATS) as a home underdog.
When watching them this season, it's clear their offense is still a work in progress. The Eagles have yet to score in the first quarter this season (the only team in the NFL yet to score) and have the highest three-and-out rate (29%) since 2025. When you pair that with a defense that has yet to generate a turnover and has registered just three sacks, there's an opportunity for the Rams to get out to an early lead and never look back. As we saw on Monday night, when you get the Eagles into a pass-heavy game script, it's not exactly "The Greatest Show on Turf."
Projected score: Rams 24, Eagles 20
The pick: Rams -3
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
It's a make-or-break game for each of these NFC squads, but I'd argue it's most important for the Packers. Sure, the Bucs are teetering with a 0-3 record and just lost Baker Mayfield (thumb) for the next few weeks, but a loss here would be a straight-up embarrassment for Green Bay. I don't care if the offensive line has any many holes as a Cheesehead, if the Packers can't beat a Baker-less Bucs team that'll be quarterbacked by undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, the entire operation needs to be in question. Jordan Love has struggled this season with the second-highest off-target rate (19.4%) and second-lowest completion percentage (52.4%) in the NFL. However, he's also been under siege quite a bit, facing the third-highest amount of pressure (44.7%). The offensive line for the Packers is still a massive question, but Love might get a little more time in the pocket this week with the Bucs logging the second-lowest pressure rate (28.3%) in the league. Tampa Bay is also on a 12-game coverless streak, which is the longest ATS losing streak since 1970.
Projected score: Packers 27, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Packers -4
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Texans are 0-3 for the second year in a row, and I don't believe they'll resurrect themselves as they did in 2025. The offensive line for Houston continues to be a monumental weakness, and it's impacting all facets of the offense. In pass protection, they're allowing the third-most pressures (52) and are tied for the second-most sacks (10) allowed. On the ground, the Texans average just 3.6 yards per carry, which is tied for the fifth-lowest in the NFL. Their 2.15 yards after contact per rush are the second-lowest. So, while the Cowboys' defense has continued to be abysmal, they might actually find some success against this Texans defense. That's particularly true if Dallas' offense continues to put points on the board. This season, the Cowboys have the highest drive-scoring rate (61.5%) in the league. I also wonder how much of a home-field advantage Reliant Stadium will be and how many Dallas fans will make the trip to Houston/already be in the area.
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Texans 23
The pick: Cowboys +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
We're going back to the well and laying a touchdown with the Seahawks against an inferior team. It burned us last week against Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, but it doesn't change the logic. Seattle is arguably the best team in the NFL, and they just got their Super Bowl-winning quarterback back. Sure, he threw two interceptions (including a pick-six), but Sam Darnold also completed 31 of 45 for 379 yards and four passing touchdowns. At home, I think we get a much cleaner and more prolific showing from him.
Even if he does turn it over again, these Chargers have shown us that they can still lose despite winning the turnover battle. They are +4 over the Bills in turnover margin and still found a way to lose. Los Angeles looks absolutely lost as an organization, especially on offense where they are averaging 14.7 points per game (fourth-fewest in the NFL). I don't expect the unit to suddenly revive itself against a Mike Macdonald-led defense that is allowing the third-fewest points per game (16.7) and fewest total yards per game (228.7).
Projected score: Seahawks 33, Chargers 20
The pick: Seahawks -7
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
To put it delicately, it's been a rough go of it for the Dolphins. We knew that they weren't going to be competitive this season, but after watching them through the first three weeks, it stands to reason that they'll even win a game in 2026. To make matters worse, they just lost star running back De'Von Achane, who was their most prolific player on offense.
Now, a bad offense gets even worse and faces Brian Flores' defense. Flores, who currently serves as Minnesota's defensive coordinator, was the head coach of the Dolphins for three seasons (2019-2021) before being fired. Surely, he'd like to stick it to his former team and will do so by continuing to blitz the quarterback. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate (71%) in the NFL. That'll be quite the mismatch for a Miami team that is tied for the third-most sacks allowed (9).
The overall trends look favorable on a Vikings win/cover as well. Miami is 0-3 ATS this season and were a double-digit underdog in all of those prior contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 8-0 straight-up and 7-1 ATS over its last eight games. This feels like a blowout.
Projected score: Vikings 27, Dolphins 10
The pick: Vikings -10.5
Rest of the bunch
Steelers at Browns (Thursday)
Projected score: Steelers 21, Browns 17
The pick: Steelers -2.5
Colts at Commanders (in London)
Projected score: Colts 30, Commanders 24
The pick: Colts -3
Cardinals at Giants
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Giants 23
The pick: Cardinals -1
Jaguars at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21
The pick: Bengals -2.5
Patriots at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Patriots 20
The pick: Bills -6.5
Jets at Bears
Projected score: Bears 27, Jets 24
The pick: Jets +3.5
Titans at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 33, Titans 16
The pick: Ravens -11.5
Broncos at 49ers
Projected score: Broncos 23, 49ers 21
The pick: Broncos +3
Chiefs at Raiders
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24
The pick: Chiefs -4.5
Lions at Panthers
Projected score: Lions 30, Panthers 27
The pick: Panthers +3.5
Falcons at Saints (Monday)
Projected score: Falcons 26, Saints 24
The pick: Falcons +2.5
