I went 5-0 straight up with my top five picks, but only 3-2 against the spread. The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans weren't good enough to cover the number against bad teams, but I did call the Washington Commanders' upset of the Arizona Cardinals. Then, Monday night was incredible.
I know the Tennessee Titans aren't going to the Super Bowl, but to give us plus money on them to beat a brand new quarterback who had less than two weeks to learn a complicated offense was pretty ridiculous. Then, the Detroit Lions, who may be playing like the best team in the NFL, beat a Seattle Seahawks squad that had the easiest schedule in the league entering Week 4.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team.
All NFL odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus.
Top five picks ATS record: 6-13-1
Overall ATS record: 25-37-2
Straight up record: 34-30
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) (London)
Monday, 9:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network & fubo, try for free)
With this number under a field goal, I'll bite. I'm not expecting a blowout, but I will take Minnesota to find victory across the pond. Isn't that what Vikings do? Invade parts of Europe?
I have no idea what the Jets' identity is on offense, and this is a revenge game for Sam Darnold. Just last week, the Denver Broncos got their revenge on former head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and Aaron Jones got his revenge on the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are one of four teams undefeated in international games, and the only team to have covered the spread in every game this season.
The pick: Vikings -2.5
Projected score: Vikings 24-21
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, also likes the Vikings to cover against the Jets in Week 5. See the other picks the model is backing at SportsLine.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox & fubo, try for free)
In case you haven't noticed, things aren't going very well for Miami. The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that hasn't led a game with time left on the clock, and they've been outscored by an average of 20 points in each of the last two games without Tua Tagovailoa. It wasn't surprising that Tyler Huntley looked so out of sync with an offense he had less than two weeks to learn, and now he has to go on the road to face Jerod Mayo's defense.
I understand the Patriots offense isn't among the most prolific in the league, and they just lost center David Andrews due to a shoulder injury. But the Dolphins are 1-6 without Tagovailoa at quarterback, and didn't even score a touchdown in that lone victory. This will be a low-scoring affair, but I'll take the Patriots to win at home.
The pick: Patriots -1
Projected score: Patriots 16-13
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox & fubo, try for free)
The Commanders have cashed as underdogs two straight weeks, and are now favored by 3.5 points. Time to fade them, right? Everyone seems to think so, but not me!
Jayden Daniels just spent two straight weeks destroying defenses on the road, and now returns home for the most-anticipated Commanders home game maybe ever. Yes, the Browns defense is better than what Daniels has faced as of late, but how much faith do you have in Deshaun Watson and his banged-up offensive line? Cleveland's offense ranks second-worst in the league with 246.3 total yards per game, and averages just 16.5 points per game, which ranks sixth-worst.
I don't think this Commanders defense got enough credit for the blowout victory over Arizona. That front was incredibly active, and now faces an offensive line that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL this year.
The pick: Commanders -3.5
Projected score: Commanders 24-20
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Broncos games this season have featured a combined 29.3 points per game, which rank fewest in the NFL. Yes, Bo Nix has struggled, but he has the backing of the most underrated defense in the NFL.
I took a look at the Broncos defense in my column this week. Denver has the highest blitz rate (49.7%) and third-highest pressure rate (40.7%) in the NFL this year. The Broncos also have the highest sack rate in the league (11.8%) after ranking 20th in 2023 (6.8%). Only the Vikings have recorded more sacks than the Broncos this season. Vance Joseph's unit currently ranks No. 2 in yards allowed per game (256.5), and third in points allowed per game (13.8). They have now gone three straight games allowing 13 or fewer points.
The Raiders have had the Broncos' number as of late, but the Davante Adams trade news breaking this week probably won't help camaraderie. He's also reportedly not suiting up on Sunday because of his hamstring injury.
The pick: Broncos -2.5
Projected score: Broncos 17-13
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I successfully faded the Seahawks last week against the Lions, but now I want to back them -- even on a short week. Giants star wideout Malik Nabers is in the concussion protocol, and we don't know if he will suit up on Sunday. If he doesn't, I bet that in itself moves this line more in Seattle's direction.
The Seahawks defense did have a tough time with the Lions' potent offense, but there's no doubt this unit is improved from last year. Plus, Boye Mafe, Leonard Williams Jerome Baker and Byron Murphy II all did not play on Monday night. Also, do I really have to be worried about the Giants offense in general? They didn't register a single touchdown against the Cowboys, who still rank as a bottom five scoring defense.
The pick: Seahawks -6.5
Projected score: Seahawks 27-16
