The road to the Super Bowl begins this week with the NFL playoffs getting underway. For the past 18 weeks, the league determined the 14 teams that will compete for the Super Bowl as the field is finally set.
Some of the typical championship contenders are in place (Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions) and there were a few surprises in this year's playoff field (Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos). This playoff field is top heavy compared to the playoff teams from years past, as four teams (Chiefs, Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings) each have 14+ wins.
Under the current 14-team playoff format, four of the eight teams that made the Super Bowl were a No. 3 seed or lower. There's always a chance one of the higher-seeded teams can play spoiler in the expanded format.
Every team in the playoffs has 10+ wins, so there's bound to be a sleeper team that can make a playoff run right? Who is the sleeper team in the AFC and who is the one in the NFC that can make a playoff run?
AFC: Baltimore Ravens (No. 3 seed)
Are the Ravens actually considered a sleeper team when they were considered a Super Bowl contender all season? The AFC North champions will have one of the toughest roads to the Super Bowl, first starting with their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round. If the Ravens beat the Steelers, they'll have to face the Bills in Buffalo followed by the Chiefs in Kansas City (assuming Buffalo and Kansas City win their first playoff games). This is one of the toughest draws in the entire playoff bracket.
The Ravens do have Lamar Jackson at quarterback and Derrick Henry at running back, creating one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The duo have the most combined rushing yards by a quarterback/running back duo in NFL history (2,836), the key cogs of an offense that was the first in NFL history with 40 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in a season and 4,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards in a season. The Ravens also set the NFL record in yards per carry for a season (5.76) and have the third-highest yards per play in league history (6.85).
How can a team with this explosive of an offense be considered a sleeper? Jackson's playoff failures play a significant role in this. The two-time league MVP is just 2-4 in the playoffs, as the Ravens are averaging only 16.0 points per game in his starts -- compared to 28.7 points per game in the regular season. This is the largest decrease in team points per game from regular season to playoffs by any quarterback since the 1970 merger (-12.7). The Ravens just average 10.5 points per game in those four losses, as Jackson has four touchdowns to eight turnovers.
If the Ravens are able to get past the Steelers, Bills, and Chiefs -- they would be the sleeper team in the AFC based on the road they traveled to get to the Super Bowl. They certainly have the talent to make a deep playoff run.
NFC: Los Angeles Rams (No. 4 seed)
The NFC playoffs certainly have a top-heavy field with the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings. Easy to forget about the team that won the Super Bowl four seasons ago with head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford. This group isn't close to that championship team from four years ago, but the Rams have been one of the hottest teams in football over the past three months.
The Rams are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after being 3+ games below .500 in back-to-back seasons. They are 9-3 in their last 12 games and are 14-6 when the "big four" of Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua all play.
Stafford has thrown 11 touchdowns to just one interception over his last seven games. Williams is averaging 91.5 rushing yards per game with six touchdowns over his last six games. Both those players are on a roll going into the playoffs, while Kupp averages 93.1 receiving yards per game in the playoffs (third in NFL history) and Nacua averages 88.4 receiving yards per game in his career (second in NFL history).
The Rams also have one of the best pass-rushing defensive fronts in football. Jared Verse (77) and Braden Fiske (51) were first and third among rookies in total pressures while Kobie Turner has 17.0 sacks over the last two seasons, trailing Aaron Donald for the most sacks by a Rams player over his first two seasons. Byron Young (44 pressures, 7.5 sacks) is also a key contributor on that pass rush.
Los Angeles has a tough challenge with Minnesota, and would have to go to Detroit if Tampa Bay beats Washington and Philadelphia beats Green Bay. If there is a team that can knock off 14+-win teams in consecutive weeks, it is the Rams -- who have the offensive firepower to score with any team. Also helps that McVay is the most experienced head coach in the NFC playoffs (in terms of postseason wins and championships).
The Rams have the experience, the offense, and pass rush to make a deep playoff run. They'll have a tough road to New Orleans, but they can compete with the heavyweights in the NFC.