Texans vs. Patriots prediction: Drake Maye and C.J. Stroud clash with trip to AFC Championship at stake
Key questions, X-factors and more about Sunday night's NFL divisional round matchup
•
5 min read
Only one ticket to the AFC Championship will be punched on Sunday afternoon when the Houston Texans and New England Patriots duke it out from Foxborough in the divisional round.
Both clubs emerged out of wild card weekend victorious, thanks largely to some tremendous efforts on the defensive side of the ball. Against Pittsburgh, Houston engulfed Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offense, holding them to just six points in a blowout win that saw two touchdowns scored by the defense. They also allowed Pittsburgh to move the chains on just two of its 14 third-down opportunities. Meanwhile, New England had an equally stellar day defensively in its win over the Chargers. They were able to take down Justin Herbert six times in the winning effort, while holding the L.A. offense to a mere field goal.
With those defenses hitting their strides, it poses quite a challenge for two of the brightest young quarterbacks that the league has to offer, C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye. For Stroud, this is his third consecutive year advancing to the divisional round, but he has stopped short of a conference championship berth in his prior two visits to this playoff plateau. As for Maye, he's looking to become the eighth-youngest quarterback all-time to win a divisional round game.
So, the stage is set quite nicely for a heck of a game at Gillette Stadium. Before we dive further into this matchup, however, let's make sure you have all the information you need to check out this game.
Where to watch Texans vs. Patriots live
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 18 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)
- TV: ESPN, ABC | Stream: fubo, try for free
- Odds: Patriots -3, O/U 40.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Key questions
Can the left side of Patriots OL hold up?
The left side of New England's offensive line -- spearheaded by rookies Will Campbell (left tackle) and Jared Wilson (left guard) -- had a game to forget against the Chargers last week. Campbell finished his evening allowing five total pressures to go along with a sack, while Wilson also gave up five pressures and two sacks. No bueno. Drake Maye was hurried quite a bit in that game, which contributed to his two turnovers (an interception and a fumble). The challenge only gets tougher now that they'll have to fend off a lethal Texans pass rush headlined by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Houston finished second in the NFL with a 42.5% pressure rate this season, and if they can get to Maye early and often, it'll drastically tip the scales in the Texans' favor.
Will C.J. Stroud protect the football?
What got lost during Houston's dominating win over the Steelers on Monday night was that Stroud had a bad game. While the Texans dropped 30 points for the game, 13 of those points were scored by the defense. The most jarring aspect of Stroud's performance was his inability to protect the football. He threw an ill-advised interception in the red zone and had five total fumbles in the game (two lost). The two lost fumbles were strip sacks, and while some blame can be put on the shoulders of the offensive line in that regard, Stroud also held onto the ball too long at times, which allowed the Pittsburgh pass rush to get home. He also appeared to have some miscommunication with his center, which also saw the ball hit the turf. Stroud was fortunate to have his defense bail him out, as they allowed just three points on his three turnovers. If he gives the ball away this time around with MVP contender Drake Maye on the other side, it could be a different story.
Has New England's defense actually leveled up?
One of the big takeaways from New England's win over the Chargers was just how dominant their defense was. While we've come to expect that kind of brilliance from Houston's unit, the Patriots' defense seemed to level up against Los Angeles. They held Justin Herbert and Co. to just three points, sacked him six times, and allowed just one conversion on 10 third-down attempts. While that's outstanding, it is fair to wonder just how much of that domination was due to the Patriots' evolving play and how much to the Chargers not being ready for the moment. After all, the L.A. offensive line had been in shambles all season after losing both star tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and Herbert was one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the league during the regular season. However, if this is a sign that this New England defense has gone up a level, it raises their ceiling remarkably.
X factor
While there's no official word yet, it does appear as if the Texans will be without their No. 1 pass-catching weapon in Nico Collins, after he left Monday's matchup due to a concussion. That's a big blow to the offense, but Houston did see veteran Christian Kirk step up in that playoff win over Pittsburgh, catching eight of his nine targets on the night for 144 yards and a touchdown. They'll need another performance like that for the Texans to confidently move the ball with any regularity. If he cannot, and no other pass catcher steps up, that'll once again see Stroud hold onto the ball far longer than he should and open the door for New England's pass rushers to take him down throughout the game.
Texans vs. Patriots prediction, pick
Houston's pass rush is a real challenge for the Patriots' offensive line. However, I think New England's defense could prove just as big an adversary for C.J. Stroud, especially if he does not have Collins. It looks like the Patriots will have star corner Christian Gonzalez for this matchup after he also suffered a concussion on Sunday, further emboldening the idea that this New England unit can shut down the Texans' offense and potentially create a turnover or two. If Stroud coughs the football up, the Patriots should be able to capitalize more than Pittsburgh was able to a week ago.
On top of that, this is also a tough spot for the Texans from a scheduling perspective. They just had to play on the road in Pittsburgh, fly back to Houston, and then jump back on the plane to head to New England, all on the short week. That's a lot of adversity to overcome, so I see the Patriots advancing to the AFC Championship.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 20 | Pick: Patriots -3
