Rams trying to end improbable 50-year NFL playoff drought against Bears: L.A. favored by historical number

For the second week in a row, the Los Angeles Rams will be hitting the road for a playoff game, and for the second week in a row, Los Angeles is favored to win. 

The Rams opened as a 4.5-point favorite over the Bears, which is notable because if the point spread holds, it would mark the first time in NFL history that a road playoff team has been favored by four points or more in two different games during the same postseason. During the wild card round, the Rams were favored by 10.5 points against the Panthers, making them the largest ROAD favorite in the Super Bowl era.

The weather in Chicago is expected to be bitterly cold this week, which might explain why the point spread has moved toward the Bears over the past few days. As of Thursday, the Rams are favored by just 3.5 points, which might actually be a good thing, because road teams favored by four points have historically struggled in the playoffs. 

As a matter of fact, if the point spread moves back up to four points, the Rams would have to defy history if they wanted to cover the spread in this game. According to Pro Football Reference, there have only been 10 games over the past 50 years where a road team has been favored by four points or more in a playoff game, and it's been ugly for the favored team in that situation. 

Here's how the favorite did in each of those 10 games: 

• They went 0-10 against the spread, including the Rams, who didn't cover against the Panthers
• They went 4-6 straight-up, with the three wins coming by an average of four points per game

Let's take a look at all 10 games (via Pro Football Reference). 

Of the four wins, one came from a 2015 Seahawks team that only won because Minnesota's Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of a 10-9 Vikings' loss. Another win came from a 2012 49ers team that trailed 17-0 against the Falcons in the NFC title game before rallying to win. And let's not forget about the Rams, who needed a TD pass from Matthew Stafford with 38 seconds left to beat the underdog Panthers. 

Win or lose, all 10 games have been close and the favored team has NEVER covered a single time in five decades. Although the Rams are favored by just 3.5 points at DraftKings, the point spread is still four points in some markets, so it will be interesting to see where that closes. 

The weather will certainly be a factor on Sunday, with the temperature expected to be just under 20 degrees when the games kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Since Sean McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have only played in three games where the kickoff temperature was 25 degrees or lower and they went 2-1 in those games. 

• Week 6, 2018: Rams 23-20 over Broncos (Kickoff temperature: 25 degrees)
• Week 15, 2022: Packers 24-12 over Rams (Kickoff temperature: 15 degrees)
• Week 16, 2024: Rams 19-9 over Jets (Kickoff temperature: 23 degrees)

Matthew Stafford was only the starting QB for one of these games and that was the win over the Jets, and he actually sounds excited about the idea of playing in cold weather. 

"I love NFL football and the history of it, Lambeau Field and the ice bowl, those kinds of things," the Rams QB said Wednesday when asked if it's fun to play in cold weather. "There's something to it. That feels right when football's outdoors, you're playing it late in the year, it's cold, it means a lot. I'm embracing it. I know our team is, too. I'm looking forward to the opportunity. I know it's going to be a great crowd there and it'll be a lot of fun."

Stafford was on the field last year for a snowy playoff game against the Eagles, where the kickoff temperature was 34 degrees before dropping as the game went on. The Rams ended up losing that game, 28-22, but it was the Eagles' closest win during their run to winning Super Bowl LIX.