Buccaneers at Saints -- Week 15
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans (indoors, FieldTurf)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Spread: Saints by 3 ½
Records: Saints (5-8; NFC South 2-2); Bucs (6-7; NFC South 2-2)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Oct. 21, 2012: Saints 35, Bucs 28 in Tampa Bay; Nov. 6, 2011: Saints 27, Bucs 16 in New Orleans. Series record: They have split their series in each of the last four years.
What matters: Pride. It is myth that teams stop caring the second they are eliminated from playoff consideration, or in the Saints’ case, anything but a mathematical possibility. Philadelphia won at Tampa Bay last week even though the Bucs were chasing a wild card spot, and the Eagles had nothing tangible on the line. The Saints can deal a death blow to the Bucs’ hopes, and they should play with more freedom than they have in consecutive losses to San Francisco, Atlanta and the New York Giants. Interim coach Joe Vitt said the Saints were pressing after the latest defeat, and he’s right. Players tried to do too much and made mistakes as a result. The last time New Orleans played in a meaningless game, it scored six TDs and rolled up 532 yards at winless Detroit in 2008. Tampa Bay is far better than that, but don’t look for the Saints to come out flat in front of their home fans.
Who matters: Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith. It will be interesting to see how the Saints’ two bounty-affected players perform now that their suspensions finally have been overturned on appeal. Smith, in particular, talked this week about a burden being lifted. He didn't have a sack in the Saints’ three-game losing streak and made only four tackles combined in the last two games. Vilma, playing out of his normal comfort zone at weakside linebacker instead of the middle, has made exactly four tackles in six of eight games since coming back from a knee injury. He still has a pending defamation lawsuit against NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, and he might want to send a message with a big performance against the Bucs that he’s not going anywhere. The Saints gave up a whopping 513 yards in the teams’ first meeting. With inspired performances from Smith and Vilma, they can fare much better in the rematch.
Key matchups: Saints LBs vs. Bucs RB Doug Martin. Martin, a rookie from Boise State, had his coming-out party with a 36-yard TD run in the first meeting. He followed with 135 yards vs. Minnesota and 251 vs. Oakland in his next two games, then gashed Philadelphia for 128 yards last Sunday. Tampa Bay was 3-0 when he rushed for 100 or more yards before losing on a last-play TD to the Eagles. Vilma, Curtis Lofton, David Hawthorne and Jonathan Casillas need to keep him in check, preventing long cutback runs, and force QB Josh Freeman to beat the Saints. After a torrid stretch earlier in the year, Freeman is back to his erratic ways. He has completed only 51 percent of his passes in the last four games and 44 percent in the last two. ...Drew Brees vs. the Bucs banged up secondary. Brees torched Tampa Bay for 377 yards and four TDs the first time. He will be itching to post similar numbers coming off one of the worst three-game stretches of his career.
Injuries of note: The Saints will be without five players, including starting OT Zach Strief and FS Malcolm Jenkins. William Robinson will start for the first time in his four-year NFL career in place of Strief. Isa Abdul-Quddus will start for Jenkins.
Inside stuff: Travaris Cadet will continue to return kickoffs despite a tepid performance against the Giants, when he had a long of 26 yards on six attempts and made no one miss. Special teams coach Greg McMahon says the Saints are trying to protect Darren Sproles from re-injuring the left hand he fractured earlier this season vs. Denver. Sproles averages 28.7 yards to Cadet’s 26.7 yards but has not returned a kickoff since that Denver game.
Connections: Saints offensive line coach Aaron Kromer was an offensive assistant with the Bucs from 2005-07 before going to New Orleans … Tampa Bay guard Carl Nicks, who left the Saints as a free agent this past offseason, is out for the year with a toe injury. He has not played since October.
Stats you should know: The Saints have not swept the Bucs since 2006, the first year of the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era. …Tampa Bay is the only NFL team giving up more than 300 passing yards per game (311.6), but the Bucs lead the league in rushing defense (78.2) and average per carry allowed (3.3). … New Orleans has not had two four-game losing streaks in the same year since 2005.
Bulletin board quote: “The only thing that has been a shortcoming on this team has been me.” -- Vitt when asked about Brees’ struggles in the last three games.
Looking ahead: The Saints travel to Dallas in a game that could cause a dilemma for fans. If they lose, it increases the chance of the Cowboys making the playoffs and of embattled coach Jason Garrett keeping his job, preventing Jerry Jones from pursuing Sean Payton. If the Saints win, well, they won a game that won’t ultimately matter.
Prediction: Saints 31, Tampa 23
Follow Saints reporter Guerry Smith on twitter @CBSSaints.