The Saints are off to one of the best offensive starts in NFL history. J.K. Dobbins leads the NFL in rushing and the Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense. The Vikings lead the NFL in sacks. The Commanders are tied for first place in the NFC East.
There are some farfetched things going on in the NFL right now, as always, at the beginning of the season. So, how do we know if they are real, or just a flash in the pan, perhaps a product of a small sample size or the schedule? We need to look at the underlying reasons behind the surprises.
With that in mind, here are seven big changes fueling hot starts across the NFL. Most have to do with shifts in scheme or tendencies.
1. Saints (motion/play action)
The Saints have 91 points this season, tied for the fourth most in NFL history through two games. They scored on each of Derek Carr's first 15 drives this season. Absolutely astounding considering their mediocre season in 2023.
And it could be real. They have the largest increases in motion (plus-38 percent) and play-action usages (plus-11 percent) in the NFL this season. It's certainly been effective so far. The Saints are averaging 7.9 yards per play with motion and 4.5 without it this year. Plus, they are at 12.5 yards per attempt with play action, and 9.4 without it.
As our Chris Trapasso beautifully laid out earlier this week, the Saints' hot start comes with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak bringing Kyle Shanahan's schemes to New Orleans.
I love how Chris pointed out two identical plays the Saints ran in Dallas for massive gains. Both involved motion, play action and max protection to neutralize the pass rush and create big plays downfield.
From this article, I love how Klint called this play, which led to a 39-yard catch-and-run by Chris Olave *then* went back to it later in the same quarter.
— Chris Trapasso 🏈 (@ChrisTrapasso) September 16, 2024
The second time, Carr threw it to the other WR option on the play, Rashid Shaheed, for a 70-yard TD. https://t.co/lWlrO9UVmu pic.twitter.com/eFBhUQovvM
2. Chargers (rushing/personnel)
We knew Jim Harbaugh was going to bring intensity and physicality to the Chargers. We just didn't know it was going to translate this soon. Los Angeles has the second-best rushing offense and best scoring defense in the NFL this season. They are doubling their rushing total from last year, the largest increase in the league, and changing up the team's personnel in the process.
They are using two-plus running backs on 37 percent of their plays this season, the third highest rate in the league. The Chargers had ONE play with two running backs on the field last season. Their secret weapon this year (besides J.K. Dobbins and his 9.9 yards per rush) has been 300-pound, three-way player Scott Matlock, who Harbaugh converted from defensive tackle to fullback right before the start of the season, even changing his jersey number from No. 99 to No. 44 to boot.
The Chargers have run the ball on 40 of Matlock's 45 offensive snaps this year. It's not just window dressing either. Check out Matlock leading the way on Dobbins' 43-yard touchdown last week. I love the unconventional personnel by Los Angeles, too. Dobbins, Matlock and Gus Edwards were all on the field. This was the only play by any team all season with three-plus running backs on the field.
the flip into the endzone is crazy, j.k.
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 15, 2024
📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/qijU6qo6bZ
This is nothing new for Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. They gave defenses a heavy dose of the run when they were in San Francisco together. Plus, we've seen Roman have a toy like Matlock before in the form of another 300-pounder, Patrick Ricard in Baltimore.
It's not sexy, but it's winning football. It also may not thrill Justin Herbert Fantasy owners. He has as many games with under 150 passing yards this year as his first four seasons combined (two). We'll see how real the rushing outburst goes when they face the Steelers and Chiefs in the next two weeks. I think it's here to stay.
3. Seahawks (11 personnel)
The Seahawks are doing something smart during their 2-0 start. They are spreading the field and playing their best weapons more around Geno Smith, who has a great arm. What a concept. Week 2 was the first game in Seahawks history featuring a duo with 10-plus catches and 100-plus receiving yards each (D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba). It was also a game that saw Smith-Njigba get 16 targets.
This wasn't so obvious to former Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron last year. The Seahawks used 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) at the 17th-highest rate last year, compared with the seventh-highest mark in 2024. It amounts to the fourth-largest increase in the NFL and the beneficiary has been Smith-Njigba, whose playing time has gone up significantly (64 percent to 82 percent).
If the payoff of putting your best players on the field wasn't obvious enough, there's this: The Seahawks are averaging 6.7 yards per play with Metcalf, Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett all on the field this year. When any of them is off, that drops to 3.7 yards per play.
Seattle is in first place in the NFC West right now and that could be for real. The Seahawks have a better defense with former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald as the head coach. Plus, last year's first-round pick, Smith-Njigba, might be emerging as one of the best slot receivers in the NFL.
4. Vikings (blitz)
Minnesota leads the NFL with 11 sacks this year, its most through two games in franchise history. It'd be easy to assume the Vikings are dialing up a crazy amount of exotic blitzes like last year when they had the highest blitz rate in the NFL. That's not the case, though. The blitz rate is down from 50 percent to 33 percent, the second-largest decline in the NFL.
That's definitely a good thing. The Vikings pass defense was fourth worst in yards per attempt allowed when blitzing last year (8.0), and fifth best when they did not blitz (6.1). Clearly, DC Brian Flores got the memo. Minnesota has the fourth-best natural pressure rate (pressure without a blitz) this year, thanks in part to a group of new pass rushers that includes Dallas Turner, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel.
The addition of Sam Darnold and dialing back the blitz in Minnesota could make this 2-0 start for real.
5. Steelers (natural pressure)
The Steelers are the third team in the Super Bowl era to start 2-0 despite scoring one offensive touchdown, joining the 1988 Bills and 2000 Lions (hat-tip to my teammate Zach Pereles).
You only get that type of company with a defense like the "Steel Curtain." Similar to the Vikings, the vaunted Blitzburgh defense has also dialed back the blitz this year with positive results. They have the third-largest decline in blitz rate this season (minus-17 percent), but are the only team in the NFL that ranks top five in pressure rate and bottom five in blitz rate. It's a perfect combination when a defense can create pressure on a quarterback while still leaving extra defenders in coverage.
The scatterplot below illustrates that no team is threading the needle there quite like the Steelers.
6. Jets (offensive line)
Few teams overhauled their offensive line quite like the Jets this offseason. They added three new starters between Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson. So far the results have been very positive. Entering Week 3, the Jets have allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (20 percent) and had the largest decline in pressure rate allowed from last year. Perhaps no team's offensive line play is more important than the Jets as they need to protect 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a torn Achilles.
So is it real? To a degree. Entering Week 3, Rodgers is getting rid of the ball at the quickest rate in the league and the Jets are seeing one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL, so it makes sense that Rodgers is being pressured less. Defenses just don't have time to get home, especially with a standard pass rush.
For a better idea on how strong the line has been I looked at ESPN's win rate metrics, which using NFL Next Gen stats technology to show very simply, how often an offensive lineman keeps the pass rusher in front of him. Entering Week 3, the Jets had the 13th-best pass block win rate in the NFL this year, up from 30th last year. So, it's more of an average pass blocking unit than one of the league's best, but that's still a huge upgrade from last year and will be good enough to get the job done.
7. Commanders (no huddle)
Kliff Kingsbury's spread, uptempo attack is intriguing so far in Washington. The Commanders have used 63 no-huddle plays this season -- 30 more than any other team -- and more than the Commanders used all of last year (51). That includes 37 no-huddle plays in Week 2, more than any team in any game over the last two seasons.
The results speak for themselves. The Commanders are tied for first place in the NFC East and fourth in the league in EPA per play. They are also getting some positive early results from Jayden Daniels. He is the only player in NFL history to have a completion rate of at least 75 percent, 100-plus rushing yards and no interceptions in a two-game span (minimum 50 attempts). With all the early rookie quarterback struggles it's got to be comforting for a Commanders fan to hear at stat like that.
It's only two games, though, and the Cardinals consistently produced mediocre results on offense despite a similar scheme with Kingsbury and a talented quarterback in Kyler Murray. I'm not banking on Washington continuing to play like a top-10 offense despite all the glitz and glamour.
