The Indianapolis Colts' 2024 season hinges on quarterback Anthony Richardson. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft flashed his potential as a rookie in four starts, but a shoulder injury ended his first NFL season prematurely. After an up-and-down performance against vanilla defenses in the preseason, what should Colts fans be expecting in 2024?
The talent Richardson possesses is evident -- and he's 6-feet-4, 244 pounds. The former Florida broke QB athletic records at the NFL Scouting Combine, and became just the fourth player in NFL history to throw three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns in his first four career games. The other players were Daunte Culpepper, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III.
So, is Richardson going to be Newton or RG3? Or maybe something in between? There's considerable hype around Richardson entering his second season, and what happens over the next four months will directly affect how we view him as a franchise quarterback. Should the Colts and their fans have some concern mixed in with that optimism?
Can he develop quick enough?
Despite some of the splashy plays in 2023, Richardson was not the most polished thrower of the football. That's expected from any rookie, but the 22-year-old is one of the most raw first-round quarterbacks we've ever seen. He made six starts in high school, 13 in college and then just four in his first professional season.
Richardson completed just 53.8% of his passes in his final collegiate season and completed 59.5% of his passes in 2023. The issue isn't arm power, but accuracy and consistency on touch throws. Richardson has shown the ability to convert the tough throws every starting quarterback needs to make, but it's clearly a work in progress. He attempted just 84 passes in four games, but Richardson's 21% bad throw percentage ranked second-worst among all quarterbacks who started Week 1 in 2023 (h/t Pro Football Reference).
I'm sure you saw the headlines about the Cincinnati Bengals taunting Richardson during their joint practices. Telling him to stop holding the ball and throw it. Asking if "all he does is run?" and that he "doesn't see his receivers." While joint practices are full of this kind of talk, some of those criticisms ring true.
In Richardson's first preseason action against the Denver Broncos, he completed 2 of 4 passes for 25 yards. On his first drive, Richardson threw a bad pass ahead of tight end Kylen Granson that should have been picked off by Damarri Mathis. On his second drive, Richardson threw another bad pass to Granson on third down, this time behind him on a crossing route, which prohibited the tight end from making it across the sticks for a first down. The Colts picked up 30 yards on the seven plays Richardson ran at quarterback.
Against the Bengals in preseason Week 2, Richardson completed 7 of 8 passes for 65 yards and completed an easy underneath touchdown pass to Adonai Mitchell on his first possession. He came out throwing immediately, completing a nice pass to Alec Pierce downfield for a gain of 18 yards off play action.
Richardson also showed off his quick release with another completion to Pierce for a gain of 13 on a third-and-10, and then a 12-yard completion to Michael Pittman Jr. on the very next play.
Richardson did have a bit of a high throw to Andrew Ogletree on first-and-goal that could have resulted in a touchdown, but he completed the throw he needed to make across the middle to Mitchell for the touchdown on the next play.
However, after that impressive opening drive, Richardson completed just 1 of 6 passes for 21 yards and one interception, which was a pick-six.
We don't have to analyze the interception to death. It was either a bad throw or a miscommunication on the route. But that wasn't the only bad play Richardson had after his opening drive. Following the pick-six, Richardson also missed a wide-open Mitchell on third-and-6 high. This came right as Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit were discussing Richardson's need to improve in the passing game when it came to both accuracy and touch.
The Colts picked up a total of 24 yards on Richardson's final three drives against Bengals backups running vanilla coverages. It was referred to by many people as "the full Anthony Richardson experience."
The question is how much improvement Richardson can make as a passer in 2024. Just because he possesses a rocket for an arm does not guarantee all of the intricacies of the passing game will click for a young player who hasn't played much football.
Injury concerns
This is actually the main reason I have concerns about Richardson moving forward. If real life were like "Madden" and we could turn off injuries, I would feel much better about him as my franchise quarterback.
You know by now that Richardson played just four games in 2023 before the shoulder injury landed him on injured reserve. But did you know he finished just one of those contests healthy? He had to exit the season opener vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a foot injury, and then he suffered a concussion in Week 2 that also cost him Week 3. Richardson finished the 29-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams successfully, but then suffered his season-ending injury vs. Tennessee the following Sunday.
Yes, Richardson needs to be smart about the hits he takes, but he's also going to have to take some hits. Richardson's ability to run and his athleticism are what makes him an X-factor as a quarterback, and with that naturally comes the risk of taking hits. Richardson playing 100% of offensive snaps just one time in his rookie season leads to questions about being injury prone. I'm sure I wasn't alone in being immediately afraid Richardson was going to be injured when he was strip-sacked from behind in the second quarter vs. the Bengals.
In conclusion
Richardson did enough in his first four NFL games to supply enough coal for his hype train to keep rolling all offseason. His stock is so high that all three of our CBS Sports NFL fantasy experts have Richardson as a top-six quarterback to draft this upcoming season. But what exactly are his expectations in 2024? I would argue they are to stay healthy and to do enough to prove that he's the future of the franchise -- that he's clearly making strides as the "Cam clone" fans hope he can be.
Richardson does have one incredible thing going for him in head coach Shane Steichen, whom I believe is an underrated offensive mind. Without his QB1, the first-year lead man took the third-worst scoring offense to No. 10 in the league, and the No. 27 offense in total yards per game to No. 15. He's someone who can get the most out of Richardson's potential. But it remains to be seen how quickly he can develop in this league, and if he can stay healthy.