Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It took 12 weeks, but the NFL is finally forcing the Cleveland Browns on us. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Browns didn't play a single prime-time game, but that will be changing tonight when they play host to the Steelers.
The Browns have been a train wreck this season and the NFL will clearly be hoping over the next few weeks that we all love watching train wrecks because Cleveland has a total of four prime-time games scheduled over the next six weeks. Although two of those could end up being flexed, it won't be easy. For instance, the Browns play the Bengals on Thursday night in Week 16 and if the NFL wants to flex that game, the deadline is TODAY (The league has to give 28 days notice to flex a Thursday game, which is a big reason why we've still never seen a Thursday night game get flexed).
Anyway, we'll be handing out picks and best bets for tonight's game, plus we'll be taking a look at which coaches are currently sitting on the hottest seat.
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1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Steelers at Browns
If the Steelers (8-2) are going to beat the Browns (2-8) tonight, they're going to have to do something they've never done before: Beat a divisional opponent on the road in a Thursday game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as coach in 2007, the Steelers have faced that situation five times and they've gone 0-5. In franchise history, they're 0-7 in that situation.
The Steelers are also 1-4 in their past five Thursday night games. Overall, Tomlin has a losing record of 9-10 in his 19 career Thursday games (You can read more about their Thurdsay night woes here).
The Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite, but based on their Thursday night track record, this could be a game that goes either way. Also, the weather could end up playing a huge factor tonight with low temperatures, high winds and possible rain that could turn into sleet and/or snow (You can see the full forecast here).
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident about a possible win:
- Why the Steelers can win: The Steelers are 7-0 this year when they hold their opponent under 20 points and it won't be surprising at all if that happens tonight: The Steelers defense has given up the second-fewest points in the NFL this year and it will be going up against a Cleveland offense that has scored the second-fewest points. The Browns have given up the most QB sacks in the NFL this year (46), so it won't be surprising if the T.J. Watt and the Steelers' pass-rush does enough to win this game on their own.
- Why the Browns can win: The Steelers have been one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run this year, but if you are able to run on them, that puts you in a good spot to beat them. The Steelers have only had four games this year where they've surrendered 100 rushing yards or more and they've gone 2-2 in those games. If Nick Chubb can get going on the ground, that could open things up for Jamies Winston to take advantage of a defense that hasn't been great at stopping the pass. If Jameis can put up big numbers without turning the ball over, the Browns should have a fighting chance to pull off the upset.
You can get a full preview of the game from Bryan DeArdo by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Jaylen Warren OVER 54.5 rushing plus receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM): Over the past two weeks, Warren has put up some huge numbers: In Week 10 he finished with 95 rushing plus receiving yards, and then, one week later, he put up 68. He's also finished with at least 59 yards from scrimmage in four straight games, which makes this feel like a good bet.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Chris Boswell OVER 7.5 points (+100 at BetMGM): It's supposed to be cold and wet tonight, which definitely isn't an ideal situation for kickers, but I'm still going to take the OVER here because Boswell has been a scoring machine. Over the past five weeks, Boswell has averaged 12.6 points per game. Not to mention, he's scored at least 13 points in four of his past five games, which makes the over feel like a comfortable bet here.
And in case you're wondering, my props are 27-22 on the season (13-10 on kicker props and 14-12 on all other props). By the way, I went 0-2 in Monday's Texans-Cowboys game and it was so bad that I briefly thought about never gambling again. I missed on Brandon Aubrey OVER 6.5 points because he missed a 40-yard field goal and because he had a 64-YARD FIELD GOAL taken off the board due to a defensive penalty. And then I missed on Nico Collins going over 72.5 yards because he had a 77-YARD TD called back due to holding on the FIRST play of the game. OK, I'm going to stop complaining. No one like a complainer.
Anyway, we also have a full Browns-Steelers betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
DeArdo's pick: Steelers 27-17 over Browns
Prisco's pick: Steelers 20-17 over Browns
My pick: Steelers 27-17 over Browns
We all have Cleveland scoring 17 points, which either means we're lazy or the Browns are actually going to score 17 points.
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. Hot seat rankings heading into Week 12
We've already seen two NFL coaches get fired this season and it won't be surprising if we see at least one more get canned before the end of the year. So which coaches should be worried about losing their job?
Let's check out who's sitting on the hottest seat heading into Week 12 (Rankings by Jeff Kerr):
- Doug Pederson (Jaguars): 2-9
- Matt Eberflus (Bears): 4-6
- Mike McCarthy (Cowboys): 3-7
- Zac Taylor (Bengals): 4-7
- Antonio Pierce (Raiders): 2-8
- Kevin Stefanski (Browns): 2-8
If you want to know why each of these coaches made the list, you can read Jeff's full story by clicking here. Of the six names on this list, it seems feels like a lock that two of them definitely won't be returning in 2025, even if they don't get fired over the next six weeks, there's no way Pederson and McCarthy will be returning to their respective teams. Eberflus is also on a thin ice and he could certainly soon be gone. Taylor probably has the safest job on this list, but crazy things happen every year in the NFL, so you can't completely rule out anything.
3. MVP watch: Josh Allen firmly on top in our first poll
With Week 12 of the season getting ready to kickoff tonight, that can only mean one thing: It's time for our annual MVP watch.
As things stand, the MVP race is currently wide open, so to figure out who has the upper hand right now, we rounded up 16 CBSSports.com writers and had them vote on who they think will win the MVP. Under the new voting rules that were implemented in 2022, the 50 media members who vote on the award will each get to name up to five players on their ballot, so that's exactly how we handled the voting here.
Here's a look at our top five heading into Week 12 along with each player's point total. (A player got five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.)
1. Bills QB Josh Allen (76 points)
2. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (56 points)
3. Lions QB Jared Goff (38 points)
4. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (33 points)
5. Ravens RB Derrick Henry (9 points)
Josh Allen is having a great season and he's fresh off a win over the Chiefs, so it's easy to see why he's on top. I think the most interesting part of the MVP vote this year could come with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is putting wildly impressive stats (25 TD passes, three INT), but Derrick Henry is also having a huge season, so that could lead to a situation where voters put both on their ballot, but not in the top spot since they complement each other.
Overall, a total of 12 players received at least one vote. If you want to see a full list of every player who got a vote, then be sure to click here.
In our first ballot last year, we had Lamar Jackson at the top and he ended up winning it.
4. Chiefs might have supplanted Cowboys as America's Team
The Dallas Cowboys have long been known as America's Team, but it might be time for them to hand that title over to the Chiefs, because based on the television ratings from this season so far, that's the team that America is most interested in watching.
The NFL released the viewership numbers for the five most watched games through the first 11 weeks and FOUR of them involved the Chiefs.
Let's check out the numbers:
1. Bills 30-21 over Chiefs (Week 11 -- CBS): 31.2 million viewers
2. Chiefs 27-20 over Ravens (Week 1 -- NBC): 28.0 million viewers
3. Chiefs 26-25 over Bengals (Week 2 -- CBS): 27.9 million viewers
4. Ravens 28-25 over Cowboys (Week 3 -- Fox): 27.3 million viewers
5. Chiefs 28-18 over 49ers (Week 7 -- Fox): 27.1 million viewers
Of the top three most watched games, two of them have been on CBS, which is definitely the best place to watch the NFL.
As for the Chiefs, even if they are America's Team, I don't think they'll be drawing 30 million viewers for their game this week and that's mostly because they're playing the Panthers.
5. Hall of Fame semifinalists: Eli Manning headlines list of modern-era players
The Pro Football Hall of Fame has officially named its 25 modern-era semifinalists for the class for 2025. The list includes several big names who are eligible for the first time.
Here are a few of those names:
You can check out the entire list of nominees by clicking here.
The biggest debate this year will probably revolve around Manning. From a purely numbers standpoint, the former Giants quarterback probably didn't have a Hall of Fame career, but when you factor in that he won two Super Bowls, that might be enough to earn him a nod.
The announcement of the semifinalists gets us one step closer to learning who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2025. The next step in the process will come at some point in the next few weeks when this group of 20 is trimmed down to 15 finalists. After that, the Hall of Fame Selection Committee will get together during Super Bowl week in February to vote on the players who will be getting in. Under HOF bylaws, the committee can select a minimum of three modern-era players and a maximum of five for induction.
If you include the seniors category along with the coaches and contributors category, there will be a total of 20 finalists and out of that group, the Hall of Fame's selection process stipulates that between four and eight new members will be selected.
6. Extra points: Fallout from benching of Daniel Jones
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Giants star not happy with Jones' benching. Dexter Lawerence definitely doesn't agree with the team's decision to bench Daniel Jones. "To me, he's the best quarterback on the team," Lawerence said. "But they see things differently. I guess that's all that matters." You can read his full comments here.
- Drew Lock not happy that Tommy DeVito is starting. Just when you thought there couldn't possibly be anymore drama coming out of the Giants' locker room, we have more drama. Drew Lock thought he should have been named the starter after Jones was benched, but instead, the Giants are turning to DeVito. "That's a question I might still have for myself," Lock said when asked when he's not the starter (via SNY). "It was expressed to me that I was going to be the two [quarterback]. I don't know, it's an interesting situation." Apparently, no one on the team is happy right now. If you want to check out Lock's full comments, you can do that here.
- George Kittle says he's playing on Sunday. After missing San Francisco's Week 11 loss to the Seahawks, Kittle says he'll definitely be on the field this week for the 49ers' showdown with the Packers. That's good news for the 49ers, because Kittle has been a scoring machine this year with four touchdowns in his past four games. Also, the 49ers are 0-2 when he doesn't play, so Kyle Shanahan will surely be thrilled to have him on the field in Green Bay.
- Mark Davis selling another minority stake in the Raiders. Tom Brady recently bought a minority stake in the Raiders, and now, Davis is selling another minority stake. This time around, the Raiders owner is selling 15% of the team with 7.5% going to to two different businessmen (Egon Durban and Michael Meldman), according to the Athletic.
