Thursday's Week 12 game in Cleveland will be somewhat of a full-circle moment for the Steelers. It was almost exactly a year ago when Steelers running back Najee Harris expressed his frustration with Pittsburgh's offense following a disappointing 13-10 loss to the Browns.
The Steelers fired their offensive coordinator less than 48 hours after that game. Changes only continued thereafter, as Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith to run the offense in the offseason. The Steelers revamped their quarterback room, bringing in veterans Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Pittsburgh also drafted two offensive lineman who are now in the starting lineup.
Those changes have resulted in a much better offense -- and team -- coming to Cleveland for Thursday night's prime-time affair. The Steelers (8-2) are hoping to extend their lead in the AFC North with a win. The Browns (2-8) are looking to play the role of spoiler while extending its home winning streak against Pittsburgh to four games.
Here's how you can follow the action in real time, along with a full breakdown and prediction.
Date: Thursday, Nov. 21 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
TV: None | Stream: Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Steelers -3.5, O/U 37 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out the latest DraftKings promo to get in the game.
When the Steelers have the ball
They're still not the "Greatest Show on Turf," but the Wilson-led Steelers offense is vastly better than the unit that has come to Cleveland in recent years. Through 10 games, Pittsburgh is a respectable 15th in the NFL in scoring and has averaged 28.2 points per game during its current five-game winning streak.
Wilson has picked up where Fields left off since taking over the offense in Week 7. While he isn't as accurate as Fields was, Wilson has taken more chances downfield and has often been rewarded with big catches by his receivers, especially No. 1 wideout George Pickens. Like Fields, Wilson has also done a good job taking care of the ball, although he did throw an ill-advised interception in the end zone during last week's win over Baltimore.
Wilson is also getting sacked at a slightly higher rate than Fields. He was sacked four times last week as Baltimore's pass rush often got home (the Steelers didn't give up a sack in the second half, though). Rest assured that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will dial up the pressure on Wilson. He isn't as mobile as Fields, who will likely enter the game for a few plays as he did this past Sunday.
The Browns' defense is led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, who was selected 29 spots ahead of Steelers pass rushing extraordinaire T.J. Watt back in 2017. Garrett will be matched up against Steelers veteran left tackle Dan Moore Jr., although Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin acknowledged this week that Moore will not be left on an island against Garrett. The extra attention on Garrett will lead to more opportunities for fellow defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo, who has had a sack in two of the past three games. He will be matched up with second-year tackle Broderick Jones, who has struggled this year from a consistency standpoint.
Cleveland has a solid secondary, led by three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward (who will likely be matched up against wideout George Pickens on Thursday night). The unit hasn't allowed many touchdown passes (14) but they also haven't created much splash in the form of interceptions (2). The strengths and weaknesses of the Browns' secondary play into what have been Wilson's strengths and weaknesses as far as taking care of the ball but struggling in the red zone.
Running is the biggest discrepancy between the two units. Cleveland is in the bottom 10 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, touchdown runs allowed and average yards per carry allowed. Pittsburgh enters Thursday night's game with the eighth-most rushing yards in football, led by Harris and backup Jaylen Warren, whose production has increased in recent weeks. Expect a large usage rate on Thursday night from both players, with the expected elements (cold, wind and possibly snowfall) to contribute to that.
When the Browns have the ball
Cleveland is second to last in the NFL in scoring as they have scored over 20 points just once (in a upset win over the Ravens back in Week 8). Surprisingly, the Browns' running game has been one of the league's worst so far, but things are looking up there with the steady improvement of Nick Chubb, the Browns four-time Pro Bowler who returned last month following last year's season-ending knee injury suffered in a Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh.
Chubb, who struggled during his initial games back this season, had 50 yards on 11 carries during last week's loss to New Orleans. Like the Steelers, expect the Browns to give their running back duo of Chubb and Jerome Ford plenty of carries on Thursday night. But Cleveland will probably not be as patient with its running game as Pittsburgh's defense has been one of the NFL's best against the run.
The key to Cleveland's offense will be the play of quarterback Jameis Winston and how effective he is attacking Pittsburgh's pass defense, which did not allow Lamar Jackson to complete 50% of his pass attempts last Sunday. Winston, who threw for 395 yards and two touchdowns (with no picks) in last week's loss to the Saints, will likely test the Steelers' defense deep in an effort to get big plays while also opening things up for Chubb and Ford.
The Browns have the weapons to make it happen, led by wideouts Jerry Jeudy (who six catches for 142 yards and a score last Sunday), Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and tight end David Njoku, a 2023 Pro Bowler who set season highs with 81 yards on nine receptions against New Orleans.
Joey Porter Jr. will likely draw the assignment of Jeudy, who has emerged as Cleveland's No. 1 wideout following the trade of Amari Cooper. It'll be up to Donte Jackson and rookie Beanie Bishop Jr. to contain the rest of Cleveland's wideouts. The Steelers inside linebackers (who received monster performances this past Sunday by Patrick Queen and rookie Payton Wilson) will also be tasked with patrolling the middle of the field from a pass defense standpoint.
You can't talk about the Steelers' secondary without talking about multiple-time Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, whose lack of splash plays this year has led to some criticism in Pittsburgh. Thursday night could be the time when Fitzpatrick finally gets a splash play, as Winston's aggressiveness can sometimes get the best of him (he had three picks during the Browns' Week 10 loss to the Chargers).
Pittsburgh's defense continues to be anchored by Watt, who is putting together yet another DPOY-caliber campaign. Watt and fellow pass rushers Nick Herbig (who had a key forced fumble vs. Baltimore) and Preston Smith will look to take advantage of a Browns offensive line that will be without tackles Jedrick Wills Jr. and Dawand Jones due to injuries.
Prediction
The Browns are certainly capable of upsetting the Steelers. As longtime Steelers captain Cameron Heyward said this week, you throw records out the window when it comes to rivalry games. The Browns will put their best foot forward. It'll be up to the Steelers to match that intensity.
From a matchup standpoint, the Browns have a puncher's chance, too, especially with their depth at receiver, their pass rush and their secondary. On offense, Cleveland needs to take care of the ball, hit on some big plays downfield and pick up the necessary short-yardage/goal line situations with Chubb and Ford. Defensively, it's about applying pressure on Wilson, forcing the Steelers into challenging third-down situations and taking advantage of Pittsburgh's less than stellar red-zone offense.
All that being said, I'm betting the visiting Steelers in this one. As noted above, weather may play a factor, so this game could come down to which team is able to possess the ball while dictating the game's tempo. This scenario would give the edge to the Steelers, who have a better running game and a vastly better run defense. This game will be a good test for a Steelers' offense that is looking to have more success in the red zone after not scoring a touchdown against Baltimore.
Score: Steelers 27, Browns 17
Bonus: R.J. White, who is on a 68-36-4 roll on Pittsburgh Steelers games, has released his best bets for the Week 12 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Thursday night matchup. Find out his pick right here at SportsLine.