It's finally here everyone: Welcome to the opening day of the 2024 NFL season!
After 207 days of waiting, football is finally back. I started getting antsy after 14 days without football, so I'm not sure how I even survived going 193 more days after that.
The last time we saw an NFL game came all the way back on Feb. 11 when the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. As you may or may not know, the team that wins the Super Bowl gets to host the Thursday night opener in the following season, which is why the Chiefs are once again hosting this game for the third time in four years. The Thursday night opener has basically become the Chiefs invitational.
With the opener just hours away, we'll obviously be covering the game extensively in today's newsletter. Also, after giving you predictions all week, I hope you're not filled up on them yet, because we have even more for you today.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. NFL opener is here: Previewing Ravens at Chiefs
The 2024 NFL season kicks off tonight with a rematch of last season's AFC Championship game with Baltimore facing Kansas City. The last time we saw these two teams play, the Chiefs punched their ticket to the Super Bowl by winning a defensive struggle over the Ravens, 17-10.
The Ravens will be out for revenge tonight in a game where they're a 3-point underdog.
My good buddy Jared Dubin put together CBS Sports' deep-dive preview for this game, and here's how he sees the game playing out:
- Why the Ravens can win: During the the AFC title game, the Ravens offense essentially gave up on running the ball after the first quarter, even though they averaged 5.3 yards per carry in that quarter. Don't look for the Ravens to make the same mistake tonight. The addition of Derrick Henry, who finished second in the NFL in rushing last season, is a game-changer for the Ravens. The Ravens went 12-1 last season when they rushed for 130 yards last season and if they can hit that number tonight, it should give them a chance to win. If the Ravens are able to run the ball, that means they'll be chewing up the clock, which means less time on the field for Patrick Mahomes, and that would be a good thing for Baltimore.
- Why the Chiefs can win: This one is simple: They have Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback has been nearly unstoppable in Week 1. Over the course of his career, he's gone 5-1 in openers, and a big reason for that is because he puts up huge numbers: Mahomes has averaged 294.7 passing yards per game while throwing 20 touchdowns and just one interception in Week 1 games. The Chiefs won't have Hollywood Brown tonight, but Mahomes will have his two top pass-catchers from last season on the field in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Mahomes will be going up against a Ravens defense that lost some notable players from 2023, including linebacker Patrick Queen, safety Geno Stone, and pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney.
You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props I like:
- ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Derrick Henry OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115): Henry has played against the Chiefs four times in his career and he's averaged 111.8 yards per game against them, which is the most he's averaged against any team. Henry has made a career out of streamrolling the Chiefs defense, and if that happens against tonight, he should hit this over with ease.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Justin Tucker OVER 6.5 total points (-130): The Ravens kicker went over this number in 11 of his final 13 games last season. John Harbaugh definitely isn't shy about using his kicker and it won't be surprising at all if Tucker comes close to scoring in the double digits tonight, and if that happens, this prop would hit easily.
Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight:
Dubin's pick: Chiefs 27-23 over Ravens
My pick: Ravens 27-24 over Chiefs
Over on our CBS Sports picks page, all eight of us are taking the Chiefs to win, but only four of us are picking them to cover. You can see our picks for this game, along with all of our Week 1 picks, here.
2. Super Bowl predictions: 13 different NFL analysts give 13 different predictions
With just a few hours to go until the start of the NFL season, we finally got everyone here at CBS Sports to turn in their Super Bowl predictions. After going through all the votes, I have found that everyone has agreed to disagree on who's going to make the Super Bowl this year.
Our 13 voters are predicting 10 different teams to make it to the Super Bowl and nine different teams to win it. Also, our 13 voters somehow voted on 13 different outcomes (Two of our voters have the same Super Bowl, but they didn't pick the same winner).
Alright, let's get to the predictions:
- Amy Trask: Ravens over Rams
- John Breech: Bengals over Lions
- Cody Benjamin: Eagles over Bengals
- Will Brinson: Bills over Rams
- Jordan Dajani: Lions over Chiefs
- Bryan DeArdo: 49ers over Chiefs
- Leger Douzable: Jets over Lions
- Brock Vereen: Chiefs over Rams
- Jared Dubin: Chiefs over 49ers
- Jeff Kerr: Chiefs over Lions
- Garrett Podell: Packers over Ravens
- Kevin Steimle: Chiefs over Packers
- Tyler Sullivan: Packers over Jets
With six votes, the Chiefs were the most popular team picked to get to the Super Bowl.
If you want to check out our entire prediction page, which includes all 13 of us predicting the winners of each award, then you're going to want to click here.
We also had six writers predict the final standings for every division along with the 14 playoff teams. If you want to see those predictions, just head here.
3. NFL MVP picks: Here's who we're predicting to win
Now that we've made our Super Bowl picks, it's time to move on to our MVP picks. We had eight writers weigh in on this and after going through all the votes, I noticed that the only position we voted for was quarterback, which I guess makes sense since the MVP has been won by a quarterback for 11 straight years. (Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to take home the award and that came all the way back in 2012.)
With that in mind, here's a look at who three of us voted for to win MVP:
- Tyler Sullivan: Patrick Mahomes (+450). "Yes, it's chalk, but Mahomes is coming off a season where he still threw for over 4,000 yards despite horrendous play at receiver. Kansas City has since revamped that wideout room, which could result in a bonkers statistical season from the face of the league."
- Jordan Dajani: Tua Tagovailoa (+2000). "Tua has gotten better and better each season, and he's been in the 'MVP conversation; over the last two years. Why not take him at 20-to-1?"
- John Breech: Jared Goff (+2500). Goff put up huge stats last season and his numbers could shoot even higher in 2024, thanks to a schedule that will see the Lions play 13 of their first 14 games indoors.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Jordan Love also received at least one vote. If you want to see our fully tally of votes, be sure to check out our story here.
4. Five bold predictions for the 2024 season
At this point, you probably thought we were done giving you predictions, but guess what, we're not. We asked CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan to come up with five bold predictions for the 2024 season, and Mr. Sullivan definitely came through.
Here's a look at three of his bold predictions for the year:
- 1. Aaron Rodgers faces the Packers in the Super Bowl. "We're starting with a BANG! Not only does Aaron Rodgers return to form after missing his entire first season with the New York Jets in 2023, but he brings the downtrodden franchise to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. And which team does he find waiting for him on Bourbon Street? The Green Bay Packers. This matchup would set the NFL on fire considering Rodgers spent the first 18 years of his career with the Packers, won a Super Bowl with the franchise along with four MVP awards."
- 2. Raiders trade Davante Adams. "There was plenty of smoke surrounding the Las Vegas Raiders possibly trading Davante Adams this offseason, but it never came to fruition. However, that doesn't mean that the book is closed on a blockbuster that sends the star wide receiver out of Sin City. In fact, I predict that the Raiders stumble this season to the point that when they get to the trading deadline they elect to move on from Adams (possibly at his request) and recoup assets to further a rebuild."
- 3. Derek Carr gets benched for Spencer Rattler. "New Orleans can get out of Carr's contract after this season and if they fall out of the playoff race in the NFC South, it'd be wise for them to see what they have in Rattler before possibly jumping back into the quarterback market next offseason. The Saints have a Week 12 bye this season, which would be an ideal time to get a full picture of Carr and possibly make the swap to Rattler, who impressed this preseason, to close out the year."
Sullivan had a total of five bold predictions and you can see his full list here.
5. Predicting the five worst teams in the NFL
Since everyone spends all their time trying to predict who the best teams are going to be this year, we thought we'd go the opposite route and try to predict who the WORST teams are going to be. When we get to Week 18 in January, who will be the bottom-five teams?
Cody Benjamin tried to answer that question this week and he came up with expected names along with at least one surprise.
Let's take a look at the five teams Cody is predicting to be the worst:
- Patriots. "Patriots fans can at least look forward to 2025, when the team is projected to have plenty of cap space to outfit Maye with proper protection and weapons."
- Raiders. "In the AFC West, where the Kansas City Chiefs are a juggernaut and the Los Angeles Chargers should be improved, wins could be particularly hard to come by in Sin City."
- Browns. "By several key measures, the Browns boasted the No. 1 defense in the NFL in 2023. That'll help. What won't is an offense that may well be worse off than it was a year ago. ... Kevin Stefanski's otherwise encouraging staff will have to overcome injuries across the offensive line, as well as to ground-game centerpiece Nick Chubb. Throw in the unpredictable chemistry between Watson and new wideout Jerry Jeudy, who wore out his welcome with the Denver Broncos, and the combustion potential is real. That's not even accounting for a tough AFC North featuring two popular Super Bowl picks in the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals."
- Giants. "Electrifying rookie Malik Nabers certainly adds juice, and Brian Burns helps rounds out an underrated front seven. The secondary is another story entirely, as is Jones' track record as a protector of the football. Throw in the star power of rivals like the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, and another 'reset' could soon be in order."
- Saints. "If their banged up and shuffled O-line doesn't hold up, and Dennis Allen's perennially feisty 'D' starts to show its age, their already-modest expectations could plummet in a hurry."
You can check out Cody's full story here.
6. Extra points: Ja'Marr Chase actually practices
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Ja'Marr Chase returns to practice. It's still not clear if he's going to play on Sunday against the Patriots, but the Bengals got some good news on Wednesday with Chase returning to practice. The receiver is still looking to get a new contract, but the fact that he was willing to practice is definitely a good sign for the Bengals when it comes to his availability for the opener.
- Damar Hamlin to start for Bills The Bills safety, who went into cardiac arrest on the field back in January 2023, is finally making his return to the starting lineup. Hamlin hasn't started a game since the 2022 season, but that will change on Sunday when he starts at safety in Buffalo's opener against the Cardinals.
- Bo Nix named Broncos captain. The Broncos rookie is already making history in Denver. Nix has been voted a team captain for 2024, which marks the first time in 57 years that a rookie has been voted a Broncos captain. The last rookie to get that honor in Denver turned out to be a future Hall of Famer (Floyd Little).
- Commander executive fired after ripping NFL players, fans and Jerry Jones. The Commanders vice president of content, Rael Enteen, has been fired after making some wild comments about the NFL. Enteen thought he was going on a date, but instead ended up going out with an undercover reporter, who recorded his comments. Enteen was caught on video saying he thinks that Jerry Jones hates "gay people" and "black people" among other things. You can read more about the situation here.
- Bill Belichick is on Instagram. After making fun of social media for years, Belichick has finally joined the parade. The seven-time Super Bowl winning coach is now on Instagram and if you're wondering what he's going to do on IG, you can find out by following him here.
