Two division leaders in the AFC South face off on Sunday night, as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has won its last five matchups, although that winning-streak is very much in danger. Not only are the Chiefs at home in primetime coming off of the bye week, but Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is questionable to play due to an ankle injury.
Henry carried the Titans to victory over the Houston Texans last week with 219 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and while he has rushed for over 150 yards in two of five career games vs. the Chiefs, Kansas City currently has the third-best run defense in the league, allowing an average of 92 rushing yards per game.
The Chiefs' last outing was an impressive one, as they blew out the San Francisco 49ers in The Bay, 44-23. Mahomes threw for 423 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, and Kansas City's new-look wide receiving corps finally put together an impressive showing, as JuJu Smith-Schuster caught seven passes for 124 yards and one touchdown, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught three passes for 111 yards.
Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Monday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 6 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
TV: NBC| Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -12.5, O/U 46
Injury report
- Titans: FB Tory Carter (neck), S Amani Hooker (shoulder) OUT; DT Jeffery Simmons (ankle), DL Kevin Strong (ankle), QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle), OLB Bud Dupree (illness) QUESTIONABLE
- Chiefs: TE Jody Fortson (quad, illness) OUT
Tannehill was able to practice in limited fashion on Friday but head coach Mike Vrabel noted that the quarterback will be a game-time decision. Tannehill suffered an ankle injury in Week 7 and missed Tennessee's 17-10 win over the Texans. If he cannot go, that would thrust rookie Malik Willis into his second career start. Derrick Henry, who was held out of Thursday's practice, was back as a full participant on Friday and carries no designation.
Kansas City is remarkably healthy heading into Sunday night's showdown with Tennessee. Jody Fortson is the lone player listed on the final injury report as every other player was able to practice fully.
Line movement
This line reopened at KC -10.5 on Tuesday, Oct. 25. It received a full-point bump to KC -11.5 last Sunday, but ended the day at KC -11. Monday, it began to climb again, ending Halloween at KC -12.5.
The pick: Chiefs -12.5. Early in the week, I was pretty sold on taking the Titans to cover the large number, but I thought Tannehill would be 100 percent ready to go at this point. Tannehill is a tough son of a gun. I didn't think he should have returned after being injured vs. the Indianapolis Colts a couple weeks ago, and he could barely move around after the snap. It wouldn't shock me if Tannehill plays Sunday night, but I don't see how he can be as effective with this ankle injury -- especially considering the wide receiving corps he's working with.
If the rookie Malik Willis starts again, he will surely bring eyes to the broadcast, but the Titans' chances of winning the game and/or covering the spread go down. He's an intriguing dual-threat quarterback, but needs some time to develop. The third-round pick out of Liberty struggled against the Texans, completing 6 of 10 pass attempts for 55 yards and one interception. The Titans didn't even have him attempt a pass in the third quarter last week. He's just someone that needs some time to develop.
The Titans are a team that's live to win any given Sunday, but we all saw what happened when they faced a loaded offense on the road in primetime earlier this year against the Buffalo Bills. It's hard to not take the Chiefs in this spot.
Over/Under 46
The total opened at 47 on Tuesday, Oct. 25. Last Wednesday, it was bumped up to 47.5, but fell to 46.5 on Sunday night. This Thursday, it fell all the way to 45. From there, it began to rise, hitting 46 on Friday.
The pick: Under 46. The total is not something I'm eager to gamble on with quarterback uncertainty and Chiefs blowout potential. The Titans are 2-5 to the Over while the Chiefs are 4-3. Tennessee is 1-3 to the Over this year when the line is between 45 and 48 points, and the Chiefs are 1-2 to the Over when the line is between 45 to 48 points. I'm just going to lean to the Under.
Patrick Mahomes props
Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +114, Under -157)
Passing yards: 277.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 36.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Passing completions: 25.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
Rushing yards: 19.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdowns in four of seven games played this season. A blowout could hurt the Over, but I'm going to bet it at plus money. I don't have a great read on his passing yards, but the lean is to the Over. I will say I like the Under on Mahomes' passing attempts, and I also will bet him to throw an interception at plus money.
Player props
Harrison Butker made extra points: Over 2.5 (-160). Obviously juicy, but throw it into a same-game parlay. This prop is "will the Chiefs score three touchdowns where they don't have to go for two points." Butker has played in just three games this season, but has made at least four extra points in two of them. He went an incredible 6 of 6 on extra points in Kansas City's last outing against San Francisco.
Isiah Pacheco rushing attempts: Over 9.5 (+114). The rookie Pacheco got his first career start in the Chiefs' last game, but he rushed just eight times for 43 yards. Still, he's cleared 10 carries twice this season, and if this is a blowout, I like his chances to go Over.
