Year by year, miss by miss: An NFL draft audit explains the Minnesota Vikings' surprise GM firing

The Minnesota Vikings fired general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah on Friday after four years at the helm, and just eight months after signing him to a contract extension last offseason. 

"Following our annual end-of-season organizational meetings over the last several weeks and after careful consideration, we have decided it is in the best interest of the team to move forward with new leadership of our football operations," co-owners Mark and Zygi Wilf said in a statement. "These decisions are never easy. We are grateful for Kwesi's contributions and commitment to the organization over the past four years and wish him and his family the best in the future."

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The Vikings said the firing wasn't about any one decision Adofo-Mensah made, but looking at his tenure cumulatively. When you take that cumulative look, though, it's hard not to start with the Vikings' failures in the NFL Draft. It's worth walking through the draft history year by year, because it's pretty ugly -- and that ugliness has to have played a role in Adofo-Mensah's losing his job.

Early in his tenure, Adofo-Mensah seemed to value pick volume above all else. He even made what many viewed as a negative-value trade with his first-ever draft pick, sending the No. 12 overall selection to the division rival Detroit Lions, along with the No. 46 pick, in exchange for Nos. 32, 34 and 66. 

He then traded 34 for 53 and 59, then traded 53, along with 77 and 192, for 42 and 122, then traded 122 for 126 and 227, then traded 126 for 165 and 169) In the end, he turned Nos. 12, 46, 77 and 192 into Nos. 32, 42, 59, 66, 165, 169 and 227, netting Cine, Booth, Ingram, Asamoah, Otomewo, Chandler and Muse -- none of whom became long-term contributors for the Vikings. 

Ingram was probably the most integral of the bunch, and he was eventually traded for just a sixth-round pick last offseason. The Lions, meanwhile, got Jameson Williams (and Josh Paschal) out of the deal. 

Addison has been a hit for the Vikings when he's been on the field, working as a very strong complement to Justin Jefferson and even posting nearly identical numbers to Jefferson down the stretch of the 2024 season, but he's also had issues off the field, including a suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy and a benching for violation of team rules this past season. 

The Vikings traded their 2023 second-round pick, along with a 2024 third-rounder, to the Lions for T.J. Hockenson and a 2024 fourth-round pick. Hockenson excelled for his first season and a half in Minnesota and signed a big new deal, but hasn't been the same since suffering a knee injury and slumped to career lows across the board this past year, in the middle of what should be his prime.

And really, Addison and Hockenson was all the Vikes got out of the 2023 draft. Ordinarily that would be a pretty damn good haul, but when you combine it with whiffing almost entirely on the previous class, it's not that great. 

Minnesota traded up twice in the first round of the 2024 draft, moving from No. 11 overall up to No. 10 by including Nos. 129 and 157 to slide up for McCarthy and land the No. 203 pick, which the Vikings then used on Reichard. The Vikes then sent their second 2024 first-rounder (which they had acquired for second- and sixth-round picks in 2024, plus their 2025 second-rounder), plus a fifth-rounder in 2024 and third- and fourth-round picks in 2025, to Jacksonville to move up and take Turner at No. 17 overall. 

This continued the trend of not valuing picks as highly as they did in Adofo-Mensah's first draft. It's one thing to give up draft capital to move up for your presumed quarterback of the future, but another to do it and miss as badly as the seemingly Vikings did while also allowing Sam Darnold to leave in free agency and lead his next team to the Super Bowl. That sequence of events, more than anything else, is likely what led to Adofo-Mensah's ultimate demise. 

The Vikes sent their second- and fourth-round picks in the deals mentioned above, which left them with only a scant few picks in this draft. Only Jackson was a contributor during his rookie season, which probably isn't surprising considering where the other players were selected. 

When you look at just the top-100 picks, which are supposed to be the major contributors for teams, Adofo-Mensah landed Cine, Booth, Ingram, Asamoah, Addison, McCarthy, Turner and Jackson. How many of those players were hits? Addison is a definite hit. Turner had eight sacks during his second NFL season but wasn't much of a contributor in Year 1. We probably still need to see him keep it up for at least another year before declaring him a hit. Jackson was a starter at guard during his first season and has a chance to develop into a nice player. 

But that's just eight top 100 picks in four drafts (you'd ordinarily have 12 but the Vikes had fewer than that thanks to Adofo-Mensah's various trades) and only one of them is a definitive hit. That's simply not good enough. And Minnesota didn't really hit on any late-round picks to mitigate the damage. Of the 20 picks the Vikings made outside the top 100, how many of them turned into contributors, let alone hits? Not that many.

You simply can't have a four-year draft run like this and expect to come out on the other side with your job -- at least not unless you do a lot of work in free agency or trades to overcome it. And the Vikings certainly didn't do that. In fact, their biggest free agency decision was likely the one that drove the final nail into the coffin that was built through their draft failures.