Don't look now, but the defending AFC champions have started to look more like themselves lately. After a tumultuous first three weeks of the 2026 campaign, where it looked like Mike Vrabel's club was enduring a hangover from the success they had a year ago, they've stabilized over the past two games and sit at 3-2 on the year. More than that, they seem primed to once again vie for the conference crown and make a bid for the Super Bowl.
The biggest change, of course, has been Drake Maye. He was at the crux of New England's early-season struggles and has seen a night-and-day difference in his play over the past two weeks, especially when it comes to the turnover department. He's also coming off his first career back-to-back games with three-plus passing touchdowns.
| Drake Maye this season | Week 1-3 | Week 4-5 |
|---|---|---|
Team PPG | 12.0 | 37.0 |
Pass YPG | 195.0 | 321.5 |
Total TD | 1 | 8 |
Turnovers | 7 | 2 |
If you dig a little deeper into what's changed with Maye over these past two games, it's been the return of his deep ball. Last year, Maye was arguably the best deep-ball thrower in the NFL, but that effectively vanished at the start of this season — that sort of bled over from the offense's struggles last postseason.
From Week 1-3, Maye was just 9-of-23 passing (39%) on throws of 15-plus air yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions. More recently (Week 4-5), Maye is 11-of-18 (61%) on those throws with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
That efficiency has him right back to the range of where he was during the last regular season, where he completed 58% of such throws. If you remember, Maye finished second in MVP voting largely because of that prolific play down the field. If he's truly returned to that level, it makes his current odds to win MVP this season at +1700 quite tasty.
While Maye is the straw that stirs the drink of the entire organization, the Patriots' climb back up to their ceiling goes beyond his improved play over the past couple of weeks.
The road ahead gets much easier
Coming into the year, the Patriots were facing a gauntlet out of the gate. New England had the hardest Week 14 strength of schedule by any team entering a season in the last 40 years. When you zoom out and look at it from 10,000 ft., the fact that they emerged from that at 2-2 is pretty solid.
Of course, how they played in those games — and losing to a Seattle team that lost Sam Darnold after the opening drive — raised red flags, but from a record standpoint, it could've been much worse. They also picked up a key divisional win in Buffalo over that stretch, which is a valuable feather in their helmets as they look down the barrel of a schedule that does soften up.
| Patriots' remaining schedule | Opponent |
|---|---|
Week 6 | vs. New York Jets |
Week 7 | at Chicago Bears (Thursday Night Football) |
Week 8 | |
Week 9 | |
Week 10 | vs. Detroit Lions (in Munich, Germany) |
Week 11 | BYE |
Week 12 | |
Week 13 | vs. Buffalo Bills |
Week 14 | vs. Minnesota Vikings (Thursday Night Football) |
Week 15 | at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday Night Football) |
Week 16 | at New York Jets |
Week 17 | vs. Denver Broncos |
Week 18 | vs. Miami Dolphins |
This week, they take on a 2-3 New York Jets team at home and are a touchdown favorite. Then, the Patriots head to Chicago on a short week, where they'll face a Bears team that is currently depleted. Caleb Williams (hamstring) is still sidelined, but could be back for that contest. However, standout running back Kyle Monangai (toe) is on the shelf, and defensive end Montez Sweat has been suspended for two games (including the matchup against New England) for violating the league's performance-enhancing substance policy.
After their mini bye week, the Pats will visit the currently 0-5 Dolphins in Miami before a home matchup with a flawed Green Bay Packers team. Then, they will head off to Munich to face the Lions in Week 10. Detroit has one of the worst defenses in the NFL so far this season, so Drake Maye's affinity to chuck it deep could be on full display for the German fans.
Given that path, it's conceivable that the Patriots enter the Week 11 bye on a seven-game winning streak, putting them at 8-2. Even if they drop a game or two, sitting at 7-3 or 6-4 at the well-positioned bye gives them a strong chance at double-digit wins. That would put them well within range of Buffalo in the AFC East race.
For those wagering at home, the Patriots' win total currently sits at 10.5, with the Over priced at +120 on DraftKings. They're also +160 to win the AFC East and -370 to make the playoffs, so the oddsmakers are backing up what our eyes have been telling us these past two weeks. They're firmly in the mix.
Looming return of A.J. Brown
Lost in the haze of Maye's resurgence is that he could be getting some massive reinforcements in the form of A.J. Brown. New England has yet to truly see any returns from their offseason prize after he suffered a high ankle sprain during the early portions of the team's Week 1 loss to Seattle. However, Brown is eligible to return from injured reserve as early as Week 6 against the New York Jets. Whenever he does come back, it adds a massive boost to an already emerging offense.
Throughout the summer, the Patriots seemed to make a concerted effort to build the chemistry between Maye and Brown. I would theorize some of the early-season struggles we saw from Maye were due to him not having the best rapport with his other pass catches (notably free agent signee Romeo Doubs) because the team was focused on him working with Brown. Nevertheless, Brown brings a true No. 1 presence to the Patriots' passing attack, and the other weapons in the offense should now fit in quite well around him as he draws the eyeballs in coverage.
Even in that brief window in Week 1, you saw the big play potential of Maye and Brown, with the wideout breaking loose on a flea-flicker. Maye wasn't able to put it on a streaking Brown, but the receiver was able to draw the DPI penalty to set up their lone touchdown of the game.
The #Patriots get a 1st & GOAL after a flea flicker-deep pass to A.J. Brown draws a pass interference from the #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/5jUFcmhtG5
— New England Sports Fellow (@_JosephManning) September 10, 2026
Given Maye's rekindled mastery of the deep ball, injecting Brown into the equation could be like hitting the NOS to the offense.
Pass rush gets surprising boost
One of my biggest concerns for the Patriots entering the season was their perceived lack of high-caliber play off the edge. That was particularly true after losing K'Lavon Chaisson in free agency and Harold Landy III beginning the year on injured reserve, where he still sits. Those were the top two sack leaders on the team a year ago, so it was a legitimate question as to where that production would come from.
Well, through five weeks, the Patriots are ninth in the NFL in pressure rate thanks to the emergence of 2025 undrafted free agent Elijah Ponder and second-round rookie Gabe Jacas. Ponder has 4.5 sacks so far this season, which has him tied with T.J. Watt for the fifth-most in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Jacas, who was slowed through the offseason due to injury and contract issues, has steadily started to ramp up as a legit presence off the edge.
| Gabe Jacas this season | Pressures | Pressure rate | Time to pressure |
|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | 1 | 10% | 3.3 seconds |
Week 2 | 3 | 9.4% | 2.8 seconds |
Week 3 | 3 | 10.3% | 2.6 seconds |
Week 4 | 3 | 21.4% | 2.9 seconds |
Week 5 | 4 | 17.4% | 2.7 seconds |
Their ability to pressure the quarterback has been instrumental in that unit arguably improving from the one we saw last year.
Injuries are the biggest concern
The elephant in the room when it comes to New England truly reestablishing itself as a player in the AFC is, of course, injuries. While A.J. Brown going down in the opener was the headliner to begin the season, the injury bug has continued to take bites out of the team. Top cornerback Christian Gonzalez has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, while fellow corner Carlton Davis also missed time with a neck ailment.
On top of those hits to the secondary, the offense has had a number of injuries as well. Starting right guard Mike Onwenu suffered what is believed to be a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 against the Steelers. The Patriots also recently placed wide receiver Mack Hollins (calf) and fullback Reggie Gilliam (ankle, knee) on injured reserve.
Then, coming out of Week 5, starting left tackle Will Campbell suffered a knee injury, and running back TreVeyon Henderson went down with an ankle injury. Campbell reportedly sprained his MCL and is expected to miss some time. As for Henderson, he's expected to miss multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain.
Those are some heavy hitters going down for New England, who will see its depth tested as it tries to continue making waves in the conference.
