Sunday afternoon's showdown in Cleveland between the Dallas Cowboys and the host Browns in Week 1 is historic.
It's the only the second Week 1 matchup between the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense and the NFL's No. 1 total defense since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger. The Cowboys' led the league with 29.9 points per game, and the Browns led the league in total defense allowing 270.2 total yards per game, the fewest since the 2014 Legion of Boom Seattle Seahawks. Sunday will assuredly be a strength versus strength matchup when the 2023 NFL passing touchdowns leader Dak Prescott and 2023 NFL receptions leader CeeDee Lamb take the field against 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward.
Let's break it all down and predict a winner.
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
Where to watch Cowboys vs. Browns
Date: Sunday, Sep. 8 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
Channel: FOX Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Browns -2.5; O/U 42
When the Cowboys have the ball
Obviously, Dallas' No. 1 scoring offense starts and ends with the Prescott-to-Lamb connection. What they do well is in direct conflict with what the Browns do well. No receiver in the entire NFL had more targets (70), catches (49) and receiving yards (734) against man coverage in 2023 than Lamb. Prescott averaged the NFL's best completion percentage (66%) and the second-most yards per pass attempt against man coverage (8.8) in the entire league.
On the flip side, no defense ran more man coverage in 2023 than the Browns, who did so on 40.9% of their of their snaps. The key to who has the edge when Prescott drops back to pass is Dallas' pass protection. It is rolling out two rookies as starters on its offensive line in 2024: third-round pick Cooper Beebe at center and first-round pick Tyler Guyton at left tackle.
Guyton will specifically be tasked with protecting Prescott's blind side and holding his own against Garrett. He has been using sparring sessions all training camp-long with Dallas' three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to prepare for the matchup.
"I had a conversation with Micah early in training camp. Just the work he was going to have against Tyler," McCarthy said. "It benefits both ways. obviously, he's going to be playing against some tackles that's Tyler's body type (6-foot-7, 322 pounds). That's the whole component of iron sharpens iron. So that part has been good. Myles is a tremendous player. He's been doing it for quite some time. He just has it all. He has the physical gifts, the motor, the know how, they do a really good job of moving him around. He's not a stationary target. Different looks, things they do to him, things they do away from him. It will be a big challenge on Sunday."
"You get to gauge yourself as a player," Guyton said Wednesday of facing Garrett. "I've played against Micah (in practice). Got Maxx Crosby (in the preseason). Now I get to block Myles Garrett. I feel like I'm just gauging myself and seeing what I can do and what I can't do. ... I definitely got my feet wet. I feel like he's [Parsons] the best pass rusher in the league, possibly ever. So losing to him is also a win and figuring out what you like and what you don't like about reps is good."
If Guyton can avoid getting regularly punked by Garrett, Prescott and Lamb will be in a position to pick up where they left off in 2023.
When the Browns have the ball
New defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is taking over a Cowboys defense that led the NFL in quarterback pressure rate (41.4%), interceptions (59), takeaways (93) and defensive touchdowns (15) under now-Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn from 2021-2023.
Parsons, the NFL's 2023 quarterback pressures (103), quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and pass rush win rate (35.3%) leader last season, will be licking his chops facing a Browns offensive line that is missing left tackle Jedrick Wills (knee) and may have right tackle Jack Conklin (knee) playing at less than 100%. Wills wasn't cleared to suit up in Week 1 after he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in December that knocked him out for the latter portion of the 2023 season.
That's bad news for Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who himself is returning from a season-ending shoulder injury that required surgery in 2023. Cleveland has yet to see the Houston Texans three-time Pro Bowl version of Watson when he has played as the Browns starting quarterback since acquiring him via trade in 2022.
Watson as a Cleveland Brown (since 2022)
| Watson | NFL Rank* | |
|---|---|---|
Completion percentage | 59.8% | 41st |
Pass yards/attempt | 6.5 | 36th |
TD-INT | 14-9 | 31st |
Passer rating | 81.7 | 37th |
* Among 45 QBs with 300-plus pass attempts
If Watson doesn't get overwhelmed by Parsons and fellow Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence, his top target (and former Cowboys wide receiver) Amari Cooper could thrive Sunday. The Cowboys will be without 2024 NFL interceptions leader in cornerback DaRon Bland after he underwent surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot during the final week of the preseason. That means Dallas' outside corners Sunday will be two-time Pro Bowler Trevon Diggs, who is returning after suffering a torn ACL in the lead up to Week 3 last season, and 2024 fifth-round rookie Caelen Carson out of Wake Forest. McCarthy revealed Diggs is now healthy enough to play a full amount of snaps Sunday.
"He's healthy. Yeah, I see him healthy, ready to go," McCarthy said Thursday. "Standing here today, I see him slated as a full-time player. But once again this is Thursday, this is our first full padded practice. But yeah, I think Trevon's been right on schedule as far as how much he'll play."
The Cowboys head coach said he is "confident" with the rookie Carson as a starter in Week 1. Cooper, who has recorded more than 1,000 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons despite quarterback turmoil in Cleveland, still has the respect of his former Dallas coaches and teammates.
"I think with Amari, No. 1, all the individuals that have worked with Amari and against Amari, I think the biggest thing is his route-running ability is top notch, his ability in releases and tracking the ball," McCarthy said. "It's definitely things we've discussed long before last week when we put the plan in. I think clearly, too, the players that have been here too, obviously, and the group working against him. I feel like we have a good idea. We all definitely know what he's capable of doing for sure and that's part of the game plan process.
"It's going to be fun, it's going to be challenging. He's one of the most explosive receivers in the league right now," Cowboys starting nickel corner Jourdan Lewis said on Monday. "So, it's going to be a good challenge. We're going to throw some different things at him and hopefully we can contain him. It's definitely going to be fun getting to compete with him out there on the actual football field and not just practice."
Cowboys vs. Browns prediction
The Cowboys shored up their biggest defensive weakness, their run defense, late in the offseason by adding depth pieces at defensive tackles in Linval Joseph and Jordan Phillips. Third-year running back Jerome Ford is a nice backup/spot starter, but he's no Nick Chubb, who will miss at least the first four games of 2024 as he recovers from his gruesome knee injury he suffered at the Steelers last season.
Cleveland's offensive tackle injuries, plus Watson shaking off the rust from shoulder surgery, puts their offensive in a precarious position against Parsons and Dallas' front seven. On the flip side, Guyton held his own in a joint practice against Rams first-round pick edge rusher Jared Verse and secured a few wins in practice against Parsons. It's more likely Parsons is able to outperform Garrett, which means Prescott and Lamb will have a little more time to let it rip against the Browns' man coverage than Watson will against the Cowboys' defense.
Dallas wins by double digits as Watson and Garrett can't keep up with Prescott and Parsons.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Browns 16
Powell likes the Cowboys to beat the Browns, but what does the SportsLine Projection Model -- up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception -- think of this matchup? Check out that prediction, as well as picks for all of the Week 1 games, right here.