FRISCO, Texas -- The 2024 season could not be going more differently entering Week 9 for the Dallas Cowboys (3-4), losers of two in a row, and the Atlanta Falcons (5-3), winners of three of their last four and in first place in the NFC South.
Remarks from players of both teams make that juxtaposition incredibly clear. It's sunshine and rainbows in Atlanta.
"Just the confidence in what the guys have now and just vibe around the building," Falcons running back Bijan Robinson told CBS Sports this week. "Obviously there's been some changes with ... Coach [Raheem] Morris being there, with [offensive coordinator] Zac [Robinson] being there. We had the quarterback change (to Kirk Cousins) and just a lot of new pieces added to the team. It's been very good for us, but I think we're coming in and just knowing that every game is a championship game. ... I know for me individually just the confidence level has grown a lot from year one to year two. I'm super excited to share that with my teammates."
And now in Dallas...
"I've got to be better. Simple as that," Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said when asked about having eight interceptions in seven games. "Take it for how it is, look at those plays independently, look at the other ones that probably could have been or could've turned out a different way than they did. But you're never going to knock my confidence. Some of them, the majority of it is decision-making, so I go back to ... risk vs. reward. That's something just watching the film this week, it's just heavy on my mind. I think from that comes being able to, as I've said, get out of the picket, make other plays happen when you're weighing that risk. You know, when I've got the ball in my hands, it's not just about that play, it's about the team, the game, the momentum of it and just got to be better."
Can the visiting Cowboys overcome injuries, youth and their inefficient start to secure an upset road victory? Or will the host Falcons and their much improved offense power them to another dub? Let's take a closer look at this matchup and predict a winner.
Cowboys vs. Falcons where to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 27 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta,)
Channel: FOX | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Falcons -3, O/U 52.0 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Cowboys have the ball
Dallas' 2024 offense has been a far cry from what its 2023 attack looked like. The Cowboys led the entire NFL in scoring offense (29.9 points per game) with Prescott pacing the league in passing touchdowns (36), and 2023 first-team All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb leading the NFL in receptions (135) en route to a third consecutive 12-5 season. The start of 2024 hasn't been nearly as explosive, with the Cowboys averaging 21.4 points per game (22nd in the league) in the midst of a 3-4 stumble to start the season.
The drop-off is understandable since the offensive environment is significantly different. Dallas is starting two rookies at arguably the two most crucial offensive line positions in first-round left tackle Tyler Guyton, who predominantly played right tackle at Oklahoma, and third-round center Cooper Beebe, who didn't take a snap at center in a single game at Kansas State.
Growing pains in pre-snap communication, and the team choosing to spearhead its running game with veteran undrafted free agent Rico Dowdle and past-their-prime versions of Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, have resulted in the Cowboys possessing the worst run game in the league, averaging 74.1 rushing yards per game. The inability to have an even slightly threatening run game and the inexperience upfront are major reasons why Prescott has struggled thus far. He has registered just 10 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions, his most interceptions through seven games in his career. Prescott ranks bottom 10 in the NFL in completion percentage (63.7%, 22nd in the NFL), touchdown-to-interception ratio (10-8, 24th) and passer rating (84.5, 24th) this season.
His chemistry with Lamb has improved after an uncomfortable start to the season in which there were multiple instances of he and his top target not being on the same page with Lamb running a route one direction and Prescott's pass going another. The early issues can certainly be attributed to Lamb's offseason holdout before receiving his new deal at the end of August, after training camp. Dallas' dynamic duo recovered their chemistry in Week 8 at the San Francisco 49ers in a 30-24 defeat that was made much closer after Prescott hit Lamb for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. He finished with 146 receiving yards and those two touchdowns with 13 catches on 17 targets.
"Yeah, I found CeeDee," Prescott said when reflecting back on Lamb's breakout in the Bay Area. "He did a good job of getting open, running all of his routes hard no matter where he was, if he was the one or if he was back side on a concept. Loved his intentionality in the game. He kind of said something like that to me during the game, midway through the game, like 'Yeah, we're back.' And that was before, I think, his two touchdown drives. So just him even playing with that confidence, communicating that, it gives me a lot of confidence."
"We found our rhythm, we caught our stride, and I was definitely getting open and getting the ball, so I feel like it goes hand and hand and look to continue to do that," Lamb said.
Prescott will have to navigate one of the most star-studded secondaries in the entire league when Dallas heads to Atlanta to face the 5-3 Falcons, the current NFC South division leaders. They have Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates III, Pro Football Focus' 10th-highest graded cover safety (73.8 coverage grade) and two-time Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons, whose 31 career interceptions are the most in the NFL since both he and Prescott entered the NFL in 2016.
Lamb is also preparing to face a fellow 2020 first-round draft pick in Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell despite not matching up against him in their two previous meetings. Terrell lined up against Lamb on five of his 60 routes in those two meetings, per NFL Pro Insights. Lamb racked up 200 yards and two touchdowns with catches on 12 of 16 targets in these matchups. Atlanta had him lining up at the left cornerback spot on 85% or more of his snaps in those two games, but in 2024, he has been more versatile in his fifth NFL season with an almost 50-50 spit at both right corner (51.1%) and left corner (48.7%), per NFL Pro Insights. Variety in the 26-year-old's game has yielded strong, early-season results: Terrell's 54.1 passer rating against as the primary defender in coverage is the ninth-best in the NFL among 60 players with at least 35 passes thrown their way.
When the Falcons have the ball
Atlanta's offense has soared to new heights under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who spent five years as an assistant on Sean McVay's Los Angeles Rams coaching staff. Running back Bijan Robinson is already up to six games with at least 100 yards from scrimmage in 2024, which tied for the second-most in the NFL with only Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (six) having more such games thus far this season. Robinson only had five such performances in all of 2023. Wide receiver Drake London has already registered a career-high five receiving touchdowns and counting in 2024 after having just six combined receiving scores in 2022 and 2023. On Sunday, tight end Kyle Pitts registered 91 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns on four catches in the win against Tampa Bay, marking his first career game with multiple touchdown receptions. His three receiving touchdowns have already tied a career high, and his 36-yard and 49-yard receiving touchdowns at the Buccaneers in Week 8 make Pitts the first Falcon with multiple receiving touchdowns of 35 yards or longer since retired four-time Pro Bowl receiver Roddy White did so back in 2012. Pitts is also the first tight end in Atlanta to accomplish the feat.
| Falcons offense (NFL ranks) | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
PPG | 18.9 (26th) | 24.3 (12th) |
Total YPG | 334.3 (17th) | 371.6 (7th) |
Drive score percentage (rate of drives that end in TD or FG) | 32.1% (25th) | 43.2% (9th) |
Pass YPG | 207.3 (22nd) | 250.9 (6th) |
Red zone TD percentage | 46.8% (29th) | 52% (22nd) |
Sack rate allowed | 7% (20th) | 5.2% (7th) |
Passer rating | 80.5 (27th) | 97.6 (13th) |
| Motion rate | 56.4% (7th) | 65.3% (5th) |
Offensive expected points added/play | -0.09 (26th) | 0.06 (7th) |
The Cowboys defense created a reputation of being an elite defense on the strength of their ability to generate takeaways. During Dallas' three consecutive seasons with 12 wins from 2021 to 2023, they led the NFL in takeaways (93), interceptions (59) and quarterback pressure rate (41.4%). The Cowboys metrics have taken a nose dive in 2024 without both three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (sidelined since Week 4) and 2023 NFL interceptions leader DaRon Bland (out since the end of training camp with a stress fracture in his foot). Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs (calf) is officially questionable. Dallas' five takeaways in 2024 are tied for the fifth-fewest in the NFL, while the defense is slightly below average (17th in the league) in quarterback pressure rate (34.8%).
The lack of takeaways can be attributed to injures and roster attrition from Jerry Jones' "all in" offseason, but the focus of new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's defense is a lot less geared toward splash plays, which include takeaways, than Dan Quinn's scheme was from 2021-2023. Dallas played man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL from 2021-2023 (33.8%), but in 2024 that figure was dropped to 26.3%, about middle of the pack -- 15th-most in the league.
Through eight games, Robinson ranks fourth in the entire league in yards from scrimmage (784) and fourth in receiving yards (238) among running backs. Dallas is the NFL's second-worst run defense (154.6 rushing yards per game allowed), just mere decimal points ahead of the 1-7 Carolina Panthers, and it specifically struggles against what Robinson excels at: under center runs. Robinson has registered a 57.6% success rate on under center runs this season, the highest rate among 36 running backs with at least 30 such carries, per NFL Pro Insights. The Cowboys have allowed the most touchdowns on under center runs (11) and surrender the second-highest success rate (49.3%) against under center runs in the NFL this season.
Prediction
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins helps lead Atlanta to victory over Zimmer, his former Minnesota Vikings head coach, with plenty of help from Robinson and his young, high-flying cast of playmakers as the Cowboys simply can't keep pace.
Pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys 20