Why Cowboys are making mistake starting Cooper Rush over Trey Lance in Dak Prescott's absence

FRISCO, Texas -- The Dallas Cowboys (3-5) are bracing for the reality that quarterback Dak Prescott will head to injured reserve with a hamstring injury. 

Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has already anointed longtime backup Cooper Rush, who has been with Dallas for each of the last eight seasons on either the active roster or the practice squad, as the team's starting quarterback in Prescott's absence.  

"We've always invested all the time and energy into the quarterback, Dak, that has the football. So now it's Cooper's turn, and Dak will be part of that process," McCarthy said on Monday. "We'll rally around him and make sure that we do everything we can to make sure that he's prepared. We'll just keep going about it the way we've gone about it."

Sure, Rush has a 5-1 record as the Cowboys' starting quarterback, but let's dive into that a little bit. When Rush filled in for an injured Prescott in 2021 and 2022 things were different. Dallas had a legitimate run game with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way with the Cowboys averaging 129.9 rushing yards per game across those two seasons, the eighth-best mark in the NFL. Dallas also surrendered an average of 20.6 points per game from 2021 to 2022, good enough to rank as the league's sixth-ranked scoring defense. When Rush did start, he wasn't lighting up the scoreboard. He threw for seven touchdowns and four interceptions in addition to averaging 213.5 passing yards per game, 7 yards per pass and a 58.5% completion percentage which all added up to a 83.6 passer rating. Three of those interceptions came in a 26-17 road loss at the Philadelphia Eagles, Rush's last start and the Cowboys' opponent this week. 

The support Rush had in 2021 and 2022 from his run game and defense is nonexistent in 2024: the Cowboys have the second-worst run game in football, averaging 82.0 rushing yards per game and the second-worst scoring defense in football, allowing 28.1 points per game. Yet, his teammates still believe, buying into their head coach's messaging entering the week. 

"I still believe we can make a run. I've seen what Cooper Rush can do. That's a nice, that's a good boy right there," All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons said Wednesday. "Cooper Rush got a lot of talent. He won games for us by just doing the basics, just playing good football. So it's not like he can't do it. I got full faith in him."

Why not start Trey Lance?

Rush simply "just doing the basics" most likely won't get the job done this time around, so that begs the question: "Why not start Trey Lance?" Quick refresher on Lance: he was the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers out of North Dakota State despite only throwing 218 passes in college. For reference, 28 NFL quarterbacks threw more passes in 2023 than Lance did in three seasons of college football at North Dakota State (318) from 2018-2020.

Following a year in the NFL sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021, Lance was groomed to start and take head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense to new heights in 2022. The plan went haywire after he suffered a season-ending fractured ankle that required surgery in Week 2. When he was ready to return, the 49ers morphed into Brock Purdy's team. San Francisco flipped him when Cowboys owner Jerry Jones called and offered to send them Dallas' 2024 fourth-round selection without checking in with McCarthy on the eve of the team's 2023 preseason finale back on Aug. 25. Today, McCarthy sounds like a head coach who didn't sign off on the move. McCarthy also wants the known commodity in Rush since he and his entire coaching staff are in the midst of the final season of their current contract in 2024. 

"He takes all the look team reps. He's great in a room. I'm high on Trey Lance. He's played a different system in college. Went to a little bit of a different system, particularly just like, just take the footwork of what we're teaching the pass game is different," McCarthy said Wednesday. "So we kind of had to start new there. So there's a lot there to work with. And I do enjoy working with him. I'm very, very fond of him. I love his approach. He is just young and needs an opportunity to play. but you know, it's in season. We are competing to win games, and Cooper Rush is up next."

McCarthy is clearly indicating he feels like Lance is still raw, but what does the franchise get out of Rush starting? Almost everyone on the Cowboys' 2024 payroll is on an expiring contract except for Prescott, Parsons, CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs and Rowdy the mascot. It's clear who the eight-year NFL veteran is: a steady caretaker who won't win or lose his team a game. The problem for Rush is that the 2024 Cowboys aren't a team equipped to support that style of play and win ballgames. Lance may be unrefined, but he has the athletic tools to do some things on a football that neither Rush nor Prescott at age 31 can do. See his 46-yard touchdown run against the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2024 preseason finale as Exhibit A. 

Losing games in a similar fashion to five of the first eight games of the season won't save McCarthy's job. McCarthy showing he can coax some semblance of consistent quarterback play out of an athletic marvel who might just need consistent reps would give him some coaching street cred back, which come benefit the head coach greatly in a few months. Lance, 24, also has a much higher ceiling than a soon-to-be 31-year-old Rush.

"Last year was a whole different story, but having gone through the offseason program and this season to this point, [I've got] great coaches, great guys around me," Lance said Wednesday. "So yeah, I do feel prepared if that opportunity does happen at some point."

Lance had a succinct answer when asked if he felt confident in his ability to run the Cowboys offense in a regular season game right now. 

"Yeah, absolutely," he said. "It's [that confidence level] as high as it can get. ... I feel like I'm in a real good spot right now. Having gone through the whole offseason program, training camp and everything. [I] Have a full year and some under my belt now, and being around these guys helps a ton. I think playing in different offenses, I've learned how to see the game in different ways and how different coaches see it. I've kind of taken everything I possibly can from my two teams I've played for and trying to learn as much as I can from it now."

Lance was up-and-down in the preseason, giving credence to McCarthy's claims that he needs more reps. All the more reason to see what he has for a few games before going back to the known commodity in Rush. 

"Trey Lance just needs to play. I've said that probably 20 times during the course of the preseason," McCarthy said Monday. ... "He's a big part of our quarterback room, the way we function. They all have responsibilities throughout the week for game-planning, presentations. Trey does an exceptional job in that area, especially with signals and things like that. He's ready to go to be in the two spot. We trust this quarterback room."  

Lance receiving all of the scout team quarterback reps in practice this week is the perk of him being promoted from third string to second string, but it's time for McCarthy to really see what he has in his uncut gem of a quarterback. In what's shaping up to be a lost season, maximizing Lance could lead to McCarthy finding the spark his team desperately needs in Prescott's absence. At the very least, Dallas won't continue to lose without learning what it has in a former top-five pick quarterback.