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USATSI

The 2023 NFL season is nearing the midway point, and there isn't a clearer MVP candidate than Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who for the second year in a row has exploded out of the gate to help Miami light up the scoreboard. But is Tagovailoa still underrated as the captain of Mike McDaniel's historic offense? Or is he really just a product of the Dolphins' electric system?

Let's start with the basic facts: When healthy, Tagovailoa has easily ranked among the game's most productive QBs since the start of 2022. He of course missed time last year due to multiple concussions, but in his last 17 starts, or the equivalent of a full season, he's thrown 4,685 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 107.0 passer rating. For reference, Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes won MVP in 2022 while throwing 41 TDs and 12 INTs with a 105.2 rating.

Now here's why some are still hesitant to crown Tagovailoa as "legitimately" elite: Basically all of his NFL stardom has come under coach Mike McDaniel and alongside an all-star cast of characters. Critics reason that in McDaniel's 49ers-inspired schemes, alongside the otherworldly speed of play-makers like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, any half-decent QB could be guiding 50-point wins and making MVP bids.

It's certainly true that Tagovailoa enjoys a pristine setup, at least in terms of play-callers and passing outlets. Hill is all but uncoverable, and McDaniel is a dynamic leader for the entire program. But it shouldn't be ignored that Tua's also gone from conservative afterthought to confident gunslinger behind a far less vaunted offensive line. Left tackle Terron Armstead has missed eight games and counting since 2022. Center Connor Williams is banged up. And new left guard Isaiah Wynn is grading out poorly to open 2023. For a smaller QB (6-1, 227) who understandably carries a reputation as medically troubled, Tagovailoa has shown a natural ability to navigate -- and thus preserve himself within -- pockets as of late.

We also might give credence to the reality that QBs develop at different rates. Take Tua's former Alabama teammate Jalen Hurts as an example; it wouldn't have been ludicrous after Hurts' first full season as the Eagles' starter to suggest Philly seek an upgrade. Mobile as he was in 2021, Hurts simply did not appear to possess the adequate passing acumen to compete with the best of the best. And yet, even accounting for the massive addition of receiver A.J. Brown, Hurts far exceeded all expectations in 2022, running and throwing his way all the way to a Super Bowl shootout with Mahomes.

Just as in Philly, where Hurts' growth and Hurts' improved help aren't mutually exclusive, Tagovailoa deserves credit for becoming the kind of QB who can capitalize on the pieces around him. His best attributes have always been fairly obvious -- pinpoint accuracy, quick decision-making. They also didn't just "come out of nowhere" once McDaniel and Co. arrived; let's remember this kid went No. 5 overall in the draft just three years ago. What if McDaniel and Co. just enhanced the QB's latent strengths?

Tua's full track record suggests as much. Including his first two years in a pre-McDaniel, pre-Tyreek Hill setup, here are his ranks among current, active starting QBs with at least 30 starts since 2020:

  • 5th in yards per attempt (7.8), tied with Mahomes
  • 7th in completion percentage (66.5)
  • 7th in passer rating (97.9), better than fellow 2020 first-rounders Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert

Obviously his work since 2022 has done the heavy lifting. But if his 2023 pace keeps up, he'll have improved his passer rating, yards per attempt and touchdown percentage every single year he's been in the NFL.

For the sake of the argument, let's say none of what he accomplished prior to 2022 even matters. Again, the question becomes, why can't Tagovailoa be considered part of the Dolphins' winning equation, as opposed to a mere beneficiary of it?

The same discussion is happening in San Francisco, where -- perhaps uncoincidentally -- McDaniel's former mentor, Kyle Shanahan, tends to receive most of the credit for young QB Brock Purdy's success. You'll hear some folks say something like, Anyone could do that in his offense! Anyone could do that with those weapons! And to that, we say: Really? Why did the 49ers' offense look more erratic on the rare occasions Trey Lance was under center? Why is Purdy controlling the ball and extending plays better than longtime Shanahan favorite Jimmy Garoppolo ever did? Like Tagovailoa in Miami, Purdy obviously benefits from his surroundings -- put the kid in Chicago, and it's probably a different story. But in his respective system, he's maximizing his role.

Consider these words from former 49ers and Chiefs starter Alex Smith, who spoke with CBS Sports about Purdy prior to the 2023 season: "He's just built (for this). It's not a fluke. You know, at the combine, we love the measurables. We love to measure height, weight, 40 times. But in the end, if you can't process information and you're not accurate, you're not gonna make it in the NFL. Brock has both those things." You know who else does? Tua Tagovailoa.

So, at the end of the day, is he a "system QB?" Maybe the better question is, what defines "system QB"? And are there levels to "system QBs"? Because if it boils down to solely surroundings -- this QB is good because his setup is good -- then something like 90% of the NFL's 32 starting QBs are "system QBs." Only a select few -- Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson among them -- have the unteachable arm talent or mobility to consistently transcend dire circumstances.

Is Tua part of that class? Probably not. But guess what? Neither are most QBs, even consistently good ones. And, dare we say, neither was the most accomplished QB in NFL history; Tom Brady didn't win seven Super Bowls with a cannon of an arm or lightning-quick legs so much as unmatched poise, precision and dedication to the craft. Of course not everyone can be Brady, but Tagovailoa doesn't necessarily have to be when the team around him is so well-constructed. A final comparison: Jared Goff in Detroit, another sometimes-maligned QB whose best attribute is throwing pretty precision passes. Put him on the Giants and he's probably not going to bail you out the same way a freak athlete like Allen or Mahomes might. But give him a decent line, a couple of play-makers and a coach who believes in him, and he'll give you consistent top-10 production and playoff contention.

All this to say, Tagovailoa may not be a Mahomes-level athlete. He may not even be a Brady-level technician. He has weapons most QBs would pay dearly to have at their disposal. And yet, when you watch him confidently feed the speed around him, when you see how efficient he's become even while attacking downfield, when you witness the composure he displays even while guiding potential comebacks, and when you see how quickly McDaniel and Hill and every title-chasing Dolphins companion rushes to defend his rise, it's not hard to call him what he is: a guy climbing right to the upper echelon of whatever "QB tier" to which he belongs.

Could Daniel Jones or Justin Fields or Derek Carr or Geno Smith or Jordan Love or Kirk Cousins do what Tagovailoa's doing in Miami? As McDaniel recently said, it really doesn't matter. You know why? Because Tua's actually doing it.