Why Texans can bounce back from 0-3 start for second straight year, return to playoffs in 2026

If the Houston Texans are to return to the NFL playoffs for the fourth consecutive year, they need to dig themselves out of a hole. Three losses to open the season put them well behind pace and made them one of five winless teams in the league. For most teams, this kind of early-season slump would be cause for panic. In fact, the four other 0-3 teams are lumped into a group widely considered the lowest tier in the NFL pecking order.

The Texans are not part of that conversation. The reasons they avoided the same discourse tied to the Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and other bottom dwellers are that one, they are far more talented and boast an elite defense. Two, it was just last year that they climbed out of a 0-3 rut to reach the postseason.

That monstrous defense did not play up to expectations in Weeks 1-3. Houston's offense sputtered, as well. Still, there is room to believe they will reverse their fortunes and get back on the road to the playoffs.

Here is why coach DeMeco Ryans can make his fourth divisional round appearance in as many years to open his career.

Bad luck will regress to the mean

Last year's 0-3 start was a product of bad offense and poor luck. Those factors played similar roles through the first three games of this season. The Texans stand in a tie with the Los Angeles Chargers for the worst luck rating in the NFL, per TeamRankings, and it is not hard to see why. Coin-flip plays and flukes have gone strongly against them.

Take Kamari Lassiter's dropped interception in Week 1, for example. The standout cornerback had a chance to seal a victory over the Buffalo Bills but could not hang onto a straightforward takeaway opportunity, and the Bills capitalized with a game-winning touchdown. Had he held onto the ball, the Texans would have opened the year at 1-0 with a win over the team most agree is the best in the league.

Even with that dropped pick taken out of the equation, the Texans are essentially in a league of their own in the bad luck department. Tom Bliss (NFL senior manager, football operations data scientist) shared eye-opening metrics that display how opponents' dropped passes, opponents' field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries make the Texans an unbelievably unfortunate squad. The Texans have the worst luck in each category, according to win probability, added by a factor of nearly three.

According to Bliss' data, the 53-yard, go-ahead field goal Spencer Shrader made for the Indianapolis Colts last week was the second-most-impactful play of the season from a luck perspective. It was the difference in the Texans' 19-17 loss.

Nico Collins should revitalize the offense

Houston's offense was a liability in each of the last two losses. A six-point effort against the Cincinnati Bengals and a 17-point outing in Indianapolis were never going to get the job done, even with the defense beginning to round back into form. Because the unit on the other side of the ball will keep opponents in check, all the offense needs to do is be somewhat competent. A combined 23 points with no more than 70 rushing yards in either of those games is not a competent offense.

How much of that was because Nico Collins was not in the lineup, though? The star wide receiver sustained a hamstring injury in practice during Week 2, which forced the Texans to change their entire offensive approach. He was by far the top target on the roster in Week 1 and led the way with seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Collins on the field, Houston put up 31 points against the Bills and nearly topped the Super Bowl contenders.

Texans' 2026 offense

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has totaled more than twice as many completions and yards when targeting Collins downfield as when targeting any other receiver, despite Collins playing on just 60.4% of the Texans' offensive snaps over the past two seasons combined, per Next Gen Stats. Collins' absence is undoubtedly largely to blame for Stroud's struggles. Stroud is the second-worst passer in the league while under pressure, so once his safety valve returns, perhaps he will both get the ball out of his hand more quickly and accurately.

Collins returned to practice this week and seems on track to play against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

Favorable schedule creates opportunities

For a team that finished second in its division last year, Houston drew a highly manageable schedule in 2026. Two of the toughest tests are already out of the way. The remaining slate is tied for the third-easiest by opponent win percentage and seventh-easiest by ESPN FPI rating. Underperformance from the Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and multiple others make the schedule more favorable than it initially seemed.

On record alone, the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers all qualify as three of the Texans' six toughest remaining foes. While each holds more wins than losses, few would consider them to be strong postseason contenders.

• Remaining opponents above .500: Jaguars (x2), Giants, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles
• Remaining opponents below .500: Cowboys, Titans (x2), Chargers, Colts, Commanders, Packers

If the Texans play more like their 2025 selves once Collins returns to action, there are stretches on the schedule conducive to producing win streaks. While it would be difficult to close the season on a nine-game heater as they did a year ago, they should be favored more often than not.