Why teams like the Buffalo Sabres can (and can't) win the Stanley Cup after long playoff absences

The Buffalo Sabres are the best story in the NHL this season, and that story won't end in early April, as is usually the case. The Sabres are the best team in the Atlantic Division, and they're about to end their 14-year playoff drought, which is the longest in NHL history and the second-longest active drought in major American sports.

The last time Buffalo reached the postseason was in 2011, when it lost a seven-game series the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round. For some context, the cinematic masterpiece Fast Five hit theaters a few days after Game 7, and Fast X was released three years ago.

The only major U.S. team with a longer active playoff drought than the Sabres is the New York Jets at 15 years. That's not the kind of company any franchise wants to keep.

So, the city of Buffalo will finally get to experience playoff hockey once again this spring, but how far can the team go? Judging by the Sabres' last 35 games, their playoff return might last a while. They've been the hottest team in the NHL for months now, but the Stanley Cup Playoffs will present them with much bigger challenges.

In fact, the Sabres are one of four teams hoping to do some damage after experiencing a big gap in playoff appearances. The Detroit Red Wings, Anaheim Ducks and Utah Mammoth are all in the same boat to a certain extent. Each team has some of the ingredients necessary to make a Stanley Cup winner, but do any of them have the complete recipe?

Playoff and Stanley Cup chances via MoneyPuck.

Buffalo Sabres | 41-20-6 | 1st in Atlantic

• Last playoff appearance: 2011
• Playoff chances: 99.3%
• Stanley Cup chances: 5.8%

Why they can win the Cup: The Sabres have been the hottest team in the NHL for some time now. On Dec. 9, Buffalo was in last place in the East. Since then, the Sabres have gone 29-6-2, which is the best record in the league. Over that stretch, they lead the NHL in goals scored (141) and goals against (94). Tage Thompson is playing like a superstar, Rasmus Dahlin is a serious Norris Trophy candidate and Josh Doan has emerged as an impact player with a breakout season. Perhaps most importantly, the Sabres are getting the kind of goaltending they haven't been able to get for much of the previous 14 years. Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have been rock solid in goal, giving Buffalo two reliable options.

Why they can't win the Cup: As hot as the Sabres have been, a peek under the hood reveals they might be in danger of overheating. Over the course of this magical 35-game run, Buffalo ranks 24th in expected goals shared at five-on-five (47.6%) and first in five-on-five PDO (1.052), per Natural Stat Trick. PDO simply adds a team's shooting and save percentages, and it serves as a loose measurement of puck luck. Right now, the Sabres are getting every bounce. If any franchise deserves some good fortune, it's Buffalo, but that's not a sustainable strategy in the playoffs. This is a very good team, but it's probably not nearly as good as it's looked over the last couple months. I wouldn't feel good about the Sabres' chances against the true Cup contenders.

Detroit Red Wings | 37-23-8 | WC1 (East)

• Last playoff appearance: 2016
• Playoff chances: 69.7%
• Stanley Cup chances: 3.1%

Why they can win the Cup: No team will go very far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs without its stars, but the Red Wings don't have to worry about that. Moritz Seider has reached superstar status on the blue line, posting a plus-14 five-on-five goal differential in tough minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. Up front, Lucas Raymond has hit his stride too, and he's become a strong two-way player capable of posting 80-plus points. Alex DeBrincat is on track for a 40-goal season, and everyone saw what Dylan Larkin can do with a gold-medal effort at the Olympics. In goal, John Gibson got off to a miserable start, but he's turned his season around in a big way. He's now saved 11.3 goals saved above average. The Wings have some key ingredients for a deep playoff run.

Why they can't win the Cup: The supporting cast around those stars, especially at forward, really underwhelms. Detroit leans too heavily on aging veterans in Patrick Kane (37) and James van Riemsdyk (37), and David Perron (37) just re-entered the fold. Plus, younger players like Marco Kasper aren't quite ready for prime time yet. That all adds up to an offense that generates five-on-five expected goals at the 16th-highest rate in the NHL and turns them into actual goals at the 29th-highest rate. The Wings probably don't have the firepower to go the distance.

Anaheim Ducks | 37-27-3 | 1st in Pacific

• Last playoff appearance: 2018
• Playoff chances: 96.6%
• Stanley Cup chances: 2.7%

Why they can win the Cup: When the Ducks' offense is humming, which is pretty often, it's a thing of beauty. Young stars are flying around the ice, making creative plays and finishing them. Leo Carlsson is an elite player on the rise, and he's averaging a point per game this season. Cutter Gauthier has emerged as a lethal scorer, and Beckett Sennecke would be the Calder Trophy favorite if not for Matthew Schaefer. On the blue line, Jackson LaCombe's strong season was rewarded with a spot on the U.S. Olympic roster, and the addition of John Carlson gives the defense experience and a bit more offensive pop. Anaheim already creates expected goals at the fourth-highest rate in the NHL, and Carlson will only help drive that number upward.

Why they can't win the Cup: While that young core creates a lot of offense, it also gives it back to the other team in equal measure. Anaheim ranks 31st when it comes to expected goals allowed, and that won't get it done in the playoffs. Many of those young forwards I mentioned above haven't been able to find consistency in the defensive zone, and the blue line isn't equipped to shut teams down without some help. Lukas Dostal can be an eraser when he's at the top of his game in goal, but he's been rather streaky in a terrible defensive environment. While that combination of porous defense and full throttle offense makes the Ducks fun to watch, it's not a recipe to win the Cup.

Utah Mammoth | 35-27-6 | WC1 (West)

• Last playoff appearance: 2020
• Playoff chances: 94.6%
• Stanley Cup chances: 3.9%

Why they can win the Cup: Unlike the other three teams featured in this piece, Utah has some very good five-on-five metrics, which indicates its success is sustainable. The Mammoth rank fifth in expected goals share (53.0%), per Natural Stat Trick, and their best forwards are reaching their peak. Captain Clayton Keller is having arguably the best season of his career, and he has plenty of support in the top six. Nick Schmaltz has been a menace at five-on-five, and Dylan Guenther has hit 30 goals for the first time. Behind that group of thriving forwards, Utah is getting tremendous support from a couple of unexpected sources in John Marino and Nate Schmidt. Marino is crushing his minutes, and Schmidt has continued the resurgence he started with Florida last season.

Why they can't win the Cup: Unfortunately for the Mammoth, their No. 1 defenseman hasn't played up to that role this season. Mikhail Sergachev has been uneven and teams generally need a bona fide top dog on the blue line to win the Cup. Perhaps the addition of Mackenzie Weegar will help boost Sergachev. Beyond that, the Mammoth have some question marks in net. Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek have been perfectly average. They've combined to break even in goals saved above average, and that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence going into the playoffs. Finally, special teams can have a huge impact on a seven-game series, and Utah's power play is tied for 25th, despite all the talent on that unit.