The 2024-25 season is underway, and that means the first NHL Power Rankings are here. There have been a few surprises in the early going, and that means there may be a lot of volatility in these first few weeks.
Before we get to the rankings, it's important to note that I'll also be factoring in preseason expectations for teams through the first month of the season. For example, I don't think the Oilers and Avalanche are two of the worst teams in hockey, and I doubt the Flames are a Western Conference juggernaut.
Early-season hockey can often be deceiving, but I do still want to reward teams for winning and punish teams for losing. Otherwise, why do we play the games? Having said that, I'll need teams like the Flames to keep proving that they're for real before I fully buy-in on what they're selling.
There are at least a few teams that have looked as advertised so far, and one of them is my Stanley Cup pick. The Dallas Stars are off to a perfect start, and their stingy defense has already been on display, allowing just five goals through four games.
With the Stars shining and some other contenders floundering, here are the first NHL Power Rankings of the new season.
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All expected goals data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Biggest Movers
| Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -- | 12-6-0 | |
Logan Stankoven has picked up right where he left off last season. The Stars rookie has five assists in his team's first four games, and he is already blossoming into a key playmaker for this lineup. After posting 14 points in his 24-game audition last season, Stankoven is adding to the embarrassment of riches up front in Dallas.
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| 2 | -- | 12-5-1 | |
Igor Shesterkin reportedly turned down an $11 million per year contract offer from the Rangers, and it looks like that might've been the correct call. Shesterkin posted a shutout in the team's season-opener against the Penguins, and he's posted a .921 save percentage through three starts. That's made even more impressive by the fact that only Sam Montembeault has faced more expected goals against.
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| 3 | -- | 13-7-2 | |
Just as everyone suspected, Paul Cotter has been the most impactful offseason addition for the Devils. The former Golden Knights depth forward leads New Jersey with four goals, and the team is controlling 58.7% of the high-danger scoring chances with him on the ice. It's still very early, but Cotter looks like an excellent fit for the Devils' forward group.
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| 4 | -- | 12-7-1 | |
The Panthers avoided potential catastrophe when it was announced that Aleksander Barkov's injury would keep him out for weeks instead of months. Still, Florida will have to weather the storm without its captain, but the team proved last season that it was fully capable of overcoming early injury issues. The silver lining is that Anton Lundell has the chance to make an even bigger impact for the Panthers.
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| 5 | -- | 12-6-2 | |
In order for the Golden Knights to rebound after an early playoff exit last season, they need their stars to produce at a high level because they have some holes down the lineup. So far, those stars are shining. Jack Eichel and Mark Stone have combined for four goals and 12 assists in the first three games, and Alex Pietrangelo is off to a strong start on the back end.
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| 6 | -- | 12-6-2 | |
In his first season as the Maple Leafs' captain, Auston Matthews has yet to record a single point through three games. Is it time to give the "C" back to John Tavares? Hang with me here, but I think Matthews is suffering from some poor shooting luck. His 15 shots on goal are first on the team, so it's only a matter of time before the flood gates open for the reigning Rocket Richard Trophy winner.
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| 7 | -- | 16-3-0 | |
In case you were wondering, Connor Hellebuyck is still very good at keeping the puck out of the net. He's already posted 6.54 goals saved above average, which is first in the NHL by almost two full goals. Hellebuyck has also stopped 100% of the 18 high-danger shots he's faced. He might be on a revenge tour after a disastrous first-round series against Vegas last spring.
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| 8 | -- | 10-9-2 | |
It's deja vu all over again for the Oilers. They currently rank fourth in five-on-five expected goals share, and only five teams have more scoring chances in all situations. Despite that, Edmonton is 0-3-0 because Stuart Skinner has been a mess in goal, and the team's 3.2% shooting percentage ranks dead last. I doubt this continues, but the Oilers need to get things turned around before mid-November this time around.
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| 9 | -- | 7-9-3 | |
In the offseason, Utah bet on Dylan Guenther with an eight-year, $7.14 million contract. That looks like an incredibly smart gamble right now. Just days after scoring the first goal in Utah Hockey Club history, Guenther scored the overtime winner in New York to beat the Rangers. He now has five goals in four games, and that leads the NHL.
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| 10 | -- | 14-5-0 | |
The question for the Hurricanes this season -- as has been the case for several years now -- is whether they can find a little more pop in the goal-scoring department. It could come internally from the likes of Andrei Svechnikov or the newly-paid Seth Jarvis. Maybe Carolina eventually swings another blockbuster like the one it pulled off for Jake Guentzel last season. Either way, it feels like this team needs more finishing talent to finish the job in the postseason.
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| 11 | -- | 9-6-3 | |
The Canucks ran hot to start the 2023-24 season, outperforming some rather poor underlying metrics at five-on-five. The opposite is true roughly a week into this season. Vancouver has controlled nearly 54.0% of the expected goals at full strength, and yet the team has been outscored 7-4 in those situations. The results should eventually turn in the Canucks' favor, but the goaltending needs to hold up in Thatcher Demko's absence.
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| 12 | -- | 9-9-3 | |
Boston spent serious money trying to bolster its roster in anticipation of another battle with Florida this season. Through the first four games, the Bruins have lost to the Panthers twice in regulation. At least Elias Lindholm seems to be settling into his new digs. The former Canuck has two goals and three assists thus far, and gives Boston a much more formidable option at the No. 1 center spot.
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| 13 | -- | 10-6-2 | |
After putting up 144 points last season, Nikita Kucherov is on track to surpass that number in 2023-24. In the Lightning's season-opener, Kucherov had a hat trick and an assist, contributing to each of the team's four goals. Tampa suffered some key losses in the offseason, but as long as Kucherov remains elite, the Bolts will be a dangerous team to play against.
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| 14 | -- | 6-11-3 | |
The Predators spent a dump truck full of money to upgrade their finishing talent this summer, and they have a 4.62% shooting percentage at five-on-five through three games. Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault have combined for 23 shots on goal without any of them going in, and that probably won't continue for much longer. I would anticipate an offensive breakout for Nashville in the coming weeks.
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| 15 | -- | 11-9-0 | |
Coming into the season, goaltending was one of the biggest questions for the Avalanche, and there are already serious red flags at that position. Alexandar Georgiev has started all three games, and he's allowed 6.62 goals above average, which is far and away the worst number in the league. In his two brief relief appearances, backup Justus Annunen has allowed 2.25 goals above average.
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| 16 | -- | 7-8-5 | |
Goaltender Ilya Sorokin underwent back surgery this offseason, so it was tough to know what to expect from him in his first start of the season. All Sorokin did was stonewall the Avalanche, making 32 saves on 34 shots again in a winning effort. It was good to see that Sorokin wasn't feeling any ill effects from the surgery, and he once again looked like an elite netminder.
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| 17 | -- | 8-10-1 | |
The importance of keeping Linus Ullmark healthy was underscored in the Senators' 8-7 win over the Kings on Monday afternoon. Anton Forsberg and Mads Soogard combined to allow 4.33 goals above average while posting a .731 save percentage. I can see why they decided to pony up and give Ullmark a relatively hefty contract extension.
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| 18 | -- | 13-3-3 | |
After his goalie goal on Tuesday night, Filip Gustavsson now has more goals this season than Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane and Brad Marchand. The Wild might want to think about getting that guy on the power play unit.
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| 19 | -- | 7-10-4 | |
The 38-year-old Evgeni Malkin just keeps producing in the late stages of his NHL career. Malkin already has six assists, which is tied for the NHL lead, and he's strung together three straight multi-point games. If the Penguins are going to get back to the playoffs, it's going to take performances like that from their aging core.
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| 20 | -- | 10-7-3 | |
Anze Kopitar proved he's still got it with a hat trick in the Kings' season-opener. Then he posted three assists in Monday afternoon's 8-7 overtime loss to the Senators. The perennial Selke Trophy candidate is showing that he still has plenty of offensive pop left at the age of 37.
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| 21 | -- | 11-6-3 | |
The Flames have been the most surprising team to start the 2024-25 season. I expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league, but instead they are tied with the Stars as the only 4-0-0 clubs in the NHL. At least some of this fast start can be attributed to Jonathan Huberdeau, who has six points already. He may never hit the heights of his 2021-22 season, but Huberdeau might finally be finding his footing in Calgary.
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| 22 | -- | 13-5-1 | |
The Capitals got their first win of the season on Tuesday night, but more importantly, Alex Ovechkin has yet to light the lamp this season. If he's going to catch Wayne Gretzky this season, Ovechkin needs to fill the net early and often. I know Washington is trying to challenge for a playoff spot again this season, but let's start feeding No. 8 a little more often.
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| 23 | -- | 10-9-1 | |
Ryker Evans, the No. 35 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, looks like he might be a future star on the blue line. He has one goal and two assists in four games, and he has been dynamic for the Kraken. Seattle has controlled a jaw-dropping 60.9% of the expected goals with Ryker on the ice at five-on-five. Not bad for a 22-year-old blueliner.
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| 24 | -- | 9-11-1 | |
St. Louis started the season with a pair of thrilling comebacks, but it hasn't been able to claw its way back in the last couple of games. The Blues' top players are producing offense, but the rest of the roster has yet to get going, and I suspect that might be a problem throughout the entire season.
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| 25 | -- | 8-9-2 | |
I predicted the Red Wings to take a step back this season due to how wildly they outperformed their five-on-five metrics this season, and they've shown no improvement in that area through three games this season. Detroit has controlled a miserable 44.3% of the five-on-five expected goals, and it will be hard to overcome those types of numbers for the second season in a row.
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| 26 | -- | 9-9-1 | |
The Sabres were a trendy preseason pick to finally break out and get back to the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Through four games, it looks like the same old story all over again. Buffalo got hammered by the Devils in the Global Series and dropped its home-opener to the Kings a few nights later. There's plenty of time left, but it was a very familiar start in Buffalo.
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| 27 | -- | 8-10-2 | |
Rookie sensation Matvei Michkov scored his first two career goals against the Oilers on Tuesday night, and his Calder Trophy campaign just got a jump start. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft has plenty of offensive skill, which is something this Philadelphia roster needed badly. He'll get plenty of opportunities to make an impact, and he's made the most of them so far.
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| 28 | -- | 7-10-2 | |
As much promise as the Canadiens have shown on offense, their defense has been much worse. They're allowing scoring chances and expected goals at an alarming rate, and they're relying on goaltender Sam Montembeault to bail them out far too often. Martin St. Louis has his work cut out for him when it comes to correcting his team's defensive issues.
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| 29 | -- | 7-12-1 | |
Chicago made it a point to get Connor Bedard more help in the offseason, and the addition of Teuvo Teravainen has helped in that regard. He and Bedard have combined for four goals in six assists, and that duo has earned 60.3% of the expected goals at five-on-five. That duo might be a lot of fun to watch this season.
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| 30 | -- | 8-8-2 | |
Something worth monitoring this season is whether Lukas Dostal is the long-term answer in goal with John Gibson toward the end of his career. So far, so good. In his first start of the season, Dostal stopped all 30 shots he faced in a shutout win over the Sharks.
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| 31 | -- | 8-9-2 | |
The Blue Jackets had a fantastic and gut-wrenching tribute to Johnny Gaudreau on Tuesday night, and I encourage everyone to go watch that. Columbus didn't beat the Panthers in the ensuing game, but Sean Monahan scored his first as a Blue Jacket, and the team held its own with the Stanley Cup champs.
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| 32 | -- | 6-11-5 | |
It's a shame that Macklin Celebrini is already on IR, but the good news is that it took less than a full period for him to show that he belongs at the NHL level. Celebrini recorded a goal and an assist in his debut, and his elite vision and playmaking were on full display.
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