2026 Winter Olympics: How would a Russian Olympic hockey team impact the competition in Italy?

While most of the international hockey superpowers will be competing in Italy for the 2026 Olympics, there will be one notable absence. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) upheld sanctions that prevent Russia from participating in team events, like ice hockey, at the Olympics.

Although the IOC is permitting some individual Russian athletes to compete under a neutral flag, that won't be the case for the hockey team. As a result, some of the best players in the world will be watching from home.

Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin will miss what will likely be their last chance to compete for a gold medal. Other stars, like Kirill Kaprizov, Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy, will have to wait at least four more years until they can take part in the Olympics.

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If the Russians were allowed to compete, they would field one of the most skilled rosters in the tournament. They would have the offensive firepower to hang with teams like Canada and the United States, and they would have a goaltending battery capable of slamming the door on even the most potent offenses.

So, what would a Russian Olympic roster look like? What would the strengths and weaknesses be? What would be the Russians' odds of capturing a gold medal? Let's dive into all of that with our hypothetical roster projection.

What would a Russian Olympic hockey team look like?

Forwards: Elite on the wing, lacking at center

• Ivan Demidov, Canadiens
• Pavel Dorofeyev, Golden Knights
• Kirill Kaprizov, Wild
• Nikita Kucherov, Lightning
• Evgeni Malkin, Penguins
• Kirill Marchenko, Blue Jackets
• Roman Kantserov, KHL
• Vladislav Namestnikov, Jets
• Valeri Nichushkin, Avalanche
• Alex Ovechkin, Capitals
• Artemi Panarin, Rangers
• Andrei Svechnikov, Hurricanes
• Dmitri Voronkov, Blue Jackets
• Danila Yurov, Wild

It's hard to beat this collection of wingers, and Canada is probably the only team that can come close to matching it. Kucherov, Kaprizov, Panarin and Ovechkin are all legitimate superstars. Marchenko, Dorofeyev and Nichushkin are all underrated impact players. This Russian roster is oozing with firepower on the wings, but this forward group also showcases a clear shortcoming.

However, the Russian team would be sorely lacking talent at the center position. The 39-year-old Malkin would probably take first-line responsibilities, and the rookie Yurov would anchor the second line. Behind them, you have Namestnikov and a KHLer in Kantserov. That's less than ideal in a best-on-best tournament like the Olympics. That said, Kucherov, Kaprizov and Panarin hardly need an elite center to drive play. That trio could carry the forward group on their own.

Russia would be able to light up the scoreboard, but could it outscore teams with far better center depth? That would be an uphill battle.

Defensemen: A solid group, but who is the true No. 1?

• Vladislav Gavrikov, Rangers
• Pavel Mintyukov, Ducks
• Alexander Nikishin, Hurricanes
• Dmitry Orlov, Sharks
• Ivan Provorov, Blue Jackets
• Mikhail Sergachev, Mammoth
• Nikita Zadorov, Bruins
• Artem Zub, Senators

Here we encounter another key weakness in this hypothetical Russian roster. There are some solid players here -- Sergachev, Gavrikov, Provorov and Zadorov among them -- but are there any true No. 1 options in the mix? 

Sergachev would be the most likely candidate, but he's produced mixed results as a top-pairing defenseman for the Mammoth. He's below water at five-on-five, and I doubt that would improve against tougher competition in Italy. Gavrikov and Zadorov would fit more of the shutdown mold, but I still think they would be on the wrong side of a mismatch against the very best forwards in the world, though that duo would bring plenty of physicality.

The most interesting player in this mix would be Mintyukov, a former first-round pick who hasn't achieved that potential in Anaheim yet. He has the most upside of all the Russian defensemen, but his floor is also quite low. In this instance, I think the Russians would take him because he's capable of making some superstar plays, something the rest of this blue line lacks.

Goalies: Better than Team USA?

• Igor Shesterkin, Rangers
• Ilya Sorokin, Islanders
• Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

The only country that could remotely approach this level of goaltending would be the United States, and I still think the Russians would have a slight advantage. Russia has three true stars in goal, and this roster doesn't even include back-to-back Stanley Cup champion and two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky.

The only problem the Russians would have is determining which goalie would be their No. 1 in Italy. Perhaps that would go to the elder statesman in Vasliveskiy, who has a pair of Stanley Cup wins and a Vezina Trophy on his resume. All Vasilevskiy has done this season is post an .918 save percentage while leading the Lightning to the top of the East.

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Sorokin is having one of the best seasons of his entire career -- and that's a pretty high bar to clear. His .871 high-danger save percentage is through the roof, and Sorokin has pulled that off behind an Islanders roster that often doesn't stack up against its competition on paper.

Assuming he would be healthy in time for the Olympics, Shesterkin is another decorated goaltender from Russia. The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner is one of the few things that's been working for the Rangers this season, and he is next to unbeatable when he's at his best.

This trio has combined to save 44.2 goals above average in 2025-26, per Natural Stat Trick, and each one is in the top 10 of that category with Shesterkin and Sorokin topping the list at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. No other team has that kind of support in goal, and it's one of the biggest reasons why the Russians would be capable of taking down Canada, Team USA and other international hockey superpowers for the gold medal.

How Russia would impact the hockey gold medal odds

Frankly, other top contenders are fortunate that Russia won't be participating in 2026. The Russians would be fully capable of making a gold medal run, and that's reflected in the odds.

I sent my roster projection to the experts at SportsLine, and they calculated gold medal odds. As things stand now, Canada and Team USA are the clear favorites to win gold at +120 and +190, respectively. The addition of Russia would change that balance of power a bit.

The Russian roster above would be +250 to win the gold medal, and it would also ding they odds for Canada (+150) and the United States (+210). That's not exactly a small shake-up, and the path to Olympic gold would be much harder for every team if Russia was making the trip to Italy.