It's the last Thursday of the 2026 MLB regular season, so this will be my last parlay of the year in this space. I will be back with even more picks in the playoffs, though perhaps not daily. Maybe it's because I'm a bit burned out by baseball, but tonight I'm doing something I almost never recommend: Betting on the road team. That would be Houston, which opens a series in Sacramento. Bet $5+ on any of Thursday's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
It's a 9:40 ET first pitch from that minor-league launching pad that is Sutter Health Park, hence the total of 11. Winds are usually blowing out at SHP and will be at about 10 mph tonight. On the money line, Houston is taking better than 93% of handle and tickets, while the Under 11 is taking decent action.
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Astros vs. Athletics MLB same-game parlay
- Houston money line
- Alt Under 14
DrafKings SGP price: -110 (subject to change)
I will start quickly with the Athletics and quote Lt. Frank Drebin from The Naked Gun: "Nothing to see here!" They will finish well under .500 for a fifth straight season, and it seems highly unlikely that fifth-year manager Mark Kotsay is back in 2027. That is, unless ownership is so cheap it doesn't want to pay Kotsay not to manage next season â which is the last the team will play in Sacramento before moving to its permanent Las Vegas home.
No doubt the Athletics have been pummeled by injuries in 2026, with the likes Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom all missing significant time, and that's not on Kotsay. This team was around .500 in May before all those injuries became too much and it fell off a cliff. Sacramento has been MLB's worst team since July 1.
It's expected to be Mason Barnett (1-4, 7.16 ERA) on the mound tonight, but it might be a pseudo-bullpen game. The Athletics have lost the past 11 times he has taken the mound in any form. Barnett was sent down in late August but recalled last week and allowed three runs and seven hits over 3.1 innings in a loss at Cleveland.
The 29-year-old has faced the Astros once this year, throwing four shutout innings in Houston way back on June 5 in only his second outing of the season, and that was in relief. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 4.6 innings, 4.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.6 earned runs.
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The AL West title will come down to the final weekend between rivals Houston and Texas â both at 78-80 -- and now the loser will not have the backup plan of earning the AL's final wild card spot. Note that the Astros won the season series 9-4, so they hold the tiebreaker over Texas and are the -280 favorites with the Rangers at +230. Both lost Wednesday.
Texas plays its final road home today against the New York Mets and then finishes with three at eliminated Minnesota, while the Astros have this four-game set. It seems to be common knowledge around MLB that Houston manager Joe Espada will not return next season barring a long playoff run. He doesn't have a contract past this season.
This is the worst Astros team since 2014 even with Yordan Alvarez putting up an AL MVP season, although he will surely not win the Triple Crown trailing AL RBI leader Pete Alonso of Baltimore by eight. Alvarez is tied for the home run lead with 41 and has the solo batting average lead at .316.
That lineup could against be missing shortstop and usual leadoff hitter Jeremy Pena tonight. He took a pitch off his wrist Tuesday and didn't start Wednesday, although the former World Series MVP stole a base as a pinch-runner.
Houston isn't in position to win the AL West without the contributions of 29-year-old Peter Lambert (8-10, 3.70 ERA), who was utterly terrible from 2019-24 with Colorado and didn't pitch at all in 2025. But he leads Astros starts in most categories. Lambert is 0-3 this month despite a decent 3.93 ERA and hasn't personally won since July 11 â a total of 12 starts in which he is 0-5 with a 4.43 ERA.
Lambert won his lone 2026 outing vs. the Athletics on June 5 in Houston, giving up one run over 5.1 innings. The model forecasts him at 5.7 innings, 5.5 strikeouts, 5.0 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. This is no doubt the biggest start of his MLB career.
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Note that stellar Astros closer Josh Hader surely isn't available after throwing a whopping 41 pitches in Wednesday's loss to the Mariners. That's not ideal, certainly, but everything else points Houston's way. And it's not like the A's have much of a home-field advantage. The model has Astros by a score of 5.1-4.8. If they combine for 14 runs, so be it and I'll just take the money line win. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
