CBS Sports will be showing six NFL games on Sunday in Week 2. I'm not about to sit here and say Cleveland at Tampa Bay is even in the top five of those, but we have an interesting storyline nonetheless in Baker Mayfield going against his former club that has continued to be snakebitten under center since the Heisman Trophy winner left town.
It's a 1 p.m. ET kick in the Bucs' home opener from Raymond James Stadium. At -8.5, Tampa Bay is taking 94% of handle and 83% of tickets at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the low total of 41.5 is getting a sizable double-lean on Over. It's a typical Tampa afternoon forecast for this time of year: Variable clouds with thunderstorms. High 88F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
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Cleveland took Mayfield at No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Oklahoma â the year after the team went 0-16. Mayfield helped lead the club to seven wins as a rookie, although he didn't start until Week 3, and then 11 wins and the playoffs in 2020, including a Wild Card victory in Pittsburgh.
Mayfield played through a severe left shoulder injury during the 2021 season and his production sharply declined. That led the Browns to trade for Deshaun Watson from Houston and ship Mayfield to Carolina in July 2022.
Here's what Bucs senior offensive assistant/pass game specialist Ken Zampese said this week about Mayfield's time ending in Cleveland as Zampese was the Browns' QBs coach in 2018: "The year we were there, we were one of the best offenses in the NFL the second half of that season, 5-3, in a place that was -- before that season started -- 1-31. The script got flipped and the city came alive because they finally drafted a quarterback that worked out for them and they mucked it up. They mucked it up."
Browns-Bucs NFL same-game parlay
- Tampa Bay money line
- Both teams with TD & field goal
DraftKings SGP price: +109
Mayfield still holds the most wins (29), passing yards (14,125), and passing touchdowns (92) by a Cleveland quarterback since Bernie Kosar from 1985-93 and is the only Browns QB with a playoff win this century. In fact, Mayfield, Kosar and Vinny Testaverde are the only Cleveland QBs with a playoff win since 1970. Mayfield lost to the Browns in the 2022 season opener while with Carolina in his only other game against the franchise. Jacoby Brissett was the Cleveland QB at the time.
Since that trade, Cleveland quarterbacks combined are last in the NFL in completion percentage (59%) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (79:77). The team has used 10 different starting quarterbacks, tied with the Raiders and Jets for the most. The Browns are 26-43 in that stretch.
Mayfield, meanwhile, has the seventh-most passing yards and fifth-most passing TDs in the league since then. And he just got a long-term extension on the eve of the season. Don't expect him to have a huge game Sunday as the Browns have gone 46 straight games without allowing a 300-yard passer, the NFL's longest streak since the Colts from 2005-08. Mayfield is a whopping +1020 for a 300-yarder on Sunday. That's actually tempting.
Tampa Bay is looking to avoid its first 0-2 start since 2014, which is the league's third-longest active streak of avoiding, and is 3-0 in home openers under Mayfield. He had quite the unusual Week 1 game in a 33-27 loss in Cincinnati, going 23-of-28 for 216 yards and three lost fumbles. It was his 11th career game completing at least 80% of his throws with at least 200 passing yards, which is the most in the NFL since 2018.
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Cleveland will surely be taking a quarterback in the 2027 draft because neither Watson nor Shedeur Sanders is the answer. The Browns were nothing short of embarrassing in Week 1, losing 34-10 in Jacksonville. In his first start since Oct. 20, 2024 due to injury, Watson was 16-for-22 for 205 yards with a TD and pick and five sacks taken.
A lot of those good numbers came in garbage time -- the Browns trailed 24-0 at halftime, tying their worst halftime shutout in the past 35 years -- and first-year coach Todd Monken (Mayfield's offensive coordinator in Cleveland in 2019) didn't name Watson as his Week 2 starter right away over Sanders but it will be Watson.
Watson could have a very short leash, especially with the team playing its home opener in Week 3. Watson would get so much vitriol from those fans that it might be better to go with Sanders then, but that's none of my business. Watson is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS in his past six starts.
One bright spot in the opener was rookie second-round pick Denzel Boston catching a 46-yard TD pass from Watson in the fourth quarter. Boston became the first Cleveland rookie with a Week 1 receiving score since Andre Davis in 2002. Rather hilariously, this marks a 30th straight season without a 2-0 start for the franchise, the NFL's longest active streak by far. The Bucs haven't started 0-2 since 2014.
In its past 11 road games as at least a 6-point dog, Cleveland is 1-10 ATS, losing by a margin of 17.9 points. But Tampa Bay is on a 10-game ATS losing streak, tied for the second-longest in the NFL since the merger behind the Houston Oilers' 11-game run in 1983-84.
My Week 1 three-leg NFL parlay on Dolphins-Raiders cashed at +171, so I'm feeling confident. I'm not really doubting a Tampa Bay win, and I'd sure think Cleveland can get a TD and a field goal -- Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is pretty kicker-friendly if the weather is not crazy. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Browns at 18 points. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
