One of the most unthinkable head-to-head home winning streaks in the major American professional sports leagues is on the line Sunday in a battle for first place in the AFC North as major surprise Cleveland (5-2) visits Pittsburgh (5-2) in one of the marquee matchups of NFL Week 8. Sign up to wager on NFL games using the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
CBS has the telecast at 1 p.m. ET. Can't say I've been in Pittsburgh in late October previously but seems like crazy-good weather, per Weather.com: Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Warm. High 69F. Winds light and variable. Not shocked the Browns are taking moderate leans ATS on tickets and handle over that key number of 3. I am a little surprised the Over is getting hammered but it is quite low. By combined winning percentage, this is the third-best matchup between the rivals in Week 8 or later in the past 50 years.
Browns vs. Steelers same-game parlay
- Pittsburgh money line
- Alt Under 44.5
FanDuel SGP price: +104 (subject to change)
A Cleveland loss would make history as the Browns have lost 22 straight regular-season road games in Pittsburgh, one shy of tying the 1992-14 Packers vs. Lions for longest losing streak in any NFL head-head matchup all time. The Steelers have covered the spread in the past eight.
That's not to say the Browns haven't won in the Steel City in a couple of decades. You may remember they pulled off a 48-37 upset there in the Wild Card Round following the 2020 season. But keep in mind that fans weren't allowed back then due to COVID restrictions.
In addition, Cleveland eyes its first regular-season sweep vs. Pittsburgh, the longest drought (34 seasons) in any NFL divisional matchup since the 1970 merger. In Week 1 at home, the Browns were 2.5-point underdogs (total of 38.5) and won 27-24 to perhaps foreshadow this surprising campaign and Todd Monken's impact on the club. The first-year coach is the +425 second-favorite to be named NFL Coach of the Year behind the Giants' John Harbaugh (+300).
Monken has worked wonders on Deshaun Watson, who is +1600 to win Comeback Player of the Year â that award is likely going to Patrick Mahomes (-150). Watson has been Mr. Clutch as Cleveland has become only the second team since 1970 with the game-winning score in the final four minutes, the fourth quarter or overtime in each of its first five wins. The other club was the 2016 Lions, who started 5-4 and finished 9-7.
The Browns are the first team ever to have three straight wins in a season all come on game-winning field goals in the final 10 seconds of regulation. That streak began with the win over Pittsburgh on Andre Szmyt's 56-yard winner. Cleveland is only the fourth team to have each of its five wins come by four points or fewer.
Watson has joined Troy Aikman (1990) and Matthew Stafford (2016) as the only QBs since 1970 with a game-winning drive in each of his team's first five wins of a campaign. The last Cleveland signal-caller with more in a given season was Bernie Kosar with six in 1986. Watson has at least three completions and a minimum of 30 passing yards on all five of those-game winning drives. He has four touchdowns and zero picks in the final two minutes of halves this year and two TDs and two picks the rest of the time.
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I'm not sure if the Browns are lucky or good -- or both. Their preseason win total was just 5.5 and they were +2200 to win the AFC North and +600 to make the playoffs. Now those numbers are 8.5, +650 (still longshots) and +142. An upset Sunday would give Cleveland a massive tiebreaker over Pittsburgh and improve the team's playoff chances from 35.5% to 57.2%, per the SportsLine Projection Model.
The Browns' only start of 6-2 or better in the Super Bowl Era was in 1994. That 28-season such drought is tied for the second-longest in league history, ironically enough with the 1966-93 Browns.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has found the Fountain of Youth of late with the Steelers as he eyes his first personal four-game winning streak since 2022 with Green Bay. Rodgers' 12 touchdown passes from Weeks 3-7 are tied for most in the NFL and Pittsburgh is averaging 26.0 PPG in the past five after 11.5 PPG from Week 1-2.
Tailback Jaylen Warren leads the league with 705 yards from scrimmage since Week 3. Just don't expect Rodgers to throw for 300 yards as the Browns have gone 52 straight games without allowing 300-yard passer. Pittsburgh could be a bit rugged early on as they played the NFL's first-ever regular-season game in Paris in Week 7. Rodgers is a whopping +660 for 300 yards.
Pittsburgh has been money of late in all AFC North home games, going 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in the past 11. That's tied for the second-longest cover streak in home divisional games in league annals. The 1971-75 Rams had a run of 13 in a row.
Nice that 44.5 was the highest total I could get to still make this a plus-money play. You know, 24-20 or something. The model has the Steelers winning 27-17. That would be great -- and in line with the 44 key number. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
