Arguably the biggest pitching mismatch â on paper, anyway â in MLB on Monday will be in the desert when Tyler Mahle goes for the San Francisco Giants against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been one of the most profitable pitchers for bettors in the majors. It's a 9:40 ET first pitch at Chase Field for the NL West matchup.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks MLB same-game parlay
- Arizona money line
- Alt Under 11
DraftKings SGP price: +121
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With the Mets firing Carlos Mendoza over the weekend, it got me thinking which manager might be the next to go. While I don't see any active odds on that prop, I would probably favor Kansas City's Matt Quatraro but San Francisco's Tony Vitello would have to be fairly high on the list. Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey, a franchise legend from his playing days, took a pretty big risk making Vitello the first college coach to move directly to MLB manager without previous professional coaching experience.
It hasn't worked in any way, shape or form with the Giants sitting ahead of only the wretched Colorado Rockies and those Mets in the overall National League standings and nine games out of the final wild card spot. The SportsLine Projection Model gives San Francisco a 1.5% chance to make the playoffs, which may be generous. But Posey can't really fire Vitello this quickly or he'd look pretty bad, so I'd imagine that Vitello is safe for the season.
But I pretty much fade the Giants whenever they play on the road (17-26), and certainly when the journeyman Mahle (1-7, 5.49 ERA) starts. If you had wagered $100 on the Giants to win each of his 12 starts, you'd be down $340.
The 31-year-old got that lone victory with one of the most surprising results of the season when he tossed seven shutout innings of the Dodgers on April 22. Mahle spent some time on the injured list with a hamstring injury but returned last Wednesday and looked good vs. the Athletics with 5.2 shutout innings in a no-decision to drop his season ERA from 6.04. Mahle was limited to 70 pitches but should go longer tonight unless he gets hammered, which would be great for our purposes.
San Francisco will absolutely be a seller at the trade deadline and would love to dump Mahle for something, but he would need to build value over the next month. He is 0-2 this season vs. the Diamondbacks with an 8.10 ERA and .289 opponents' batting average in 10.0 innings.
I don't play a ton of MLB hitting props but will ponder something on the Snakes' Ketel Marte considering he's 8-for-15 off Mahle with three homers and two doubles. Marte is one hit shy of tying Paul Goldschmidt (1,182) for the second-most hits in franchise history, behind Luis Gonzalez (1,337).
Arizona sits three games out of the final NL wild card spot and can't seem to decide what it is after being swept over the weekend at Tampa Bay, although there's no shame in that. Every time it appears the Diamondbacks have turned a corner, they slide back again. This starts their final homestand before the All-Star break. The model gives them a 10.4% shot at making the playoffs.
Rodriguez (6-2, 2.27 ERA) has a case to be an All-Star for the first time in his career with an ERA that ranks fifth among MLB starters, and if you wagered $100 on Arizona to win each of his 16 starts, you would be up $729. That's seventh-best in the majors. Rodriguez has made nine quality starts this season, almost matching his total from 2024 and 2025 combined (10).
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The 33-year-old took a no-decision last time out after blanking St. Louis over 6.2 innings -- his third straight outing in which he allowed one run or fewer. He won in San Francisco on May 26 (6 IP, 2 ER) but has been much better at home (4-1, 1.84 ERA).
San Francisco's Matt Chapman hits him well, going 8-for-24 with four doubles and a homer, but Willy Adames might get the night off at 1-for-18 with seven strikeouts against Rodriguez. Adames left Sunday's game with back troubles so I doubt he plays. He's among team leaders in homers (14) and RBI (32).
Arizona has swept both of its three-game series vs. San Francisco this season and has taken nine of the past 10 overall vs. its rival, outscoring the Giants 59-31. The lone defeat came in 11 innings. The model has the Diamondbacks winning 4.8-4.6.
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