I always enjoy "karma" games in Major League Baseball, and by that I mean a well-known player facing a team he just recently was jettisoned from via trade or the like. That's certainly the case tonight when the Mets visit the AL East-leading Rays with Tampa Bay's Freddy Peralta on the hill against his ex-New York club. It's a 6:40 ET first pitch from Tropicana Field. Bet $5+ on any of Monday's games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:
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How much of a setback will the failed Peralta trade be for the Mets organization? They have money to burn thanks to MLB's richest owner in Steve Cohen, but no doubt the farm system got worse because of Peralta. The Mets landed the veteran Milwaukee right-hander, who was coming off a spectacular 2025 season with the Brewers, for New York's No. 3 overall prospect at the time in position player Jett Williams and No. 5 in pitcher Brandon Sproat
Some guys just can't handle pitching in the stressful environment of New York, and apparently Peralta is in that group with some dudes like Carl Pavano, Hideki Irabu and Sonny Gray. I personally loved that deal for the Mets, because Peralta was going to be duly motivated this year as a pending free agent and still squarely in his prime at age 30.
But he was 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA 1.48 WHIP in 22 starts with the Mets -- from May 23 through July 20, he produced a 6.67 ERA over 11 outings -- before he was traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline. Needless to say, Peralta's value was way down by that point in early August, so New York got three low-level prospects in Tampa Bay's No. 12, 15 and 17 overall guys.
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You should never trade with the Rays, because they seem to always win them as it is. And maybe no franchise knows pitching better. Peralta, who has lost velocity on his fastball in 2026, has gone a not-great 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five starts with his new club, but maybe the Dominican found something last Wednesday. He threw six shutout innings in Detroit with just two hits allowed, four strikeouts and no walks â Peralta's first outing of the year with no free passes.
"Mechanically, I had everything working today," said Peralta afterward. "It gave me more confidence earlier. I know that I'm going to take it from here. I hope to get five or six more [wins]. Why not?" Peralta added that adjusting his arm extension has been "very important" to the mechanical changes he's made under Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder.
Does that mean Peralta is back, or are the Tigers just a poor offensive team? Perhaps both, but Peralta has millions of dollars at stake the rest of the way to boost his free-agent value back up. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 5.0 innings, 5.3 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs.
No current Mets have had much regular-season success vs. their former teammate. Francisco Lindor is 1-for-11 with a homer and five Ks, and Juan Soto, who returned from a long IL stint over the weekend, is 1-for-12 with a homer.
Mets-Rays MLB same-game parlay
- Tampa Bay alt +1
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
- Alt Under 10.5
DraftKings SGP price: +140 (subject to change)
New York is playing out the string â but did pull a 3-2 upset Monday at the Trop, thanks in part to a seventh-inning homer from Mark Vientos in his return from the IL. Its rotation right now is an interesting mix of promising young guys who are part of the long-term future and a few veterans who are not. It's the latter tonight in 34-year-old Sean Manaea (4-6, 4.55 ERA). Manaea is a southpaw, and that means he can probably pitch in the Show until his 40s if he wants and is moderately successful.
But he has been anything but successful of late. Manaea is winless in his past three and has allowed 14 runs over 18.0 innings â and six homers. Some Rays batter is surely going yard today, as Manaea has given up 20 gopher balls overall. Tampa Bay All-Star Yandy Diaz is 2-for-8 off him with a pair of solo homers. The model forecasts Manaea at 5.7 innings, 5.7 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs for this one.
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Good start to the week in this space on MLB parlays, with Monday's Athletics-Rangers play easily winning. Like that one, this is backing a home team with reason to care against a road team playing out the string on a massively disappointing campaign. And what should be a very motivated Tampa Bay pitcher. To avoid disaster on a one-run Rays loss, I went with +1 at a not-terrible price instead of money line. That the Mets emptied the bullpen in Monday's win only helps matters for this play. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
