On Tuesday in this space, I talked about how NL wild-card hopeful Arizona saw the season debut of former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and how much that might boost its playoff chances. Then the Diamondbacks went out and won, in part thanks to Burnes. Their main competition for that final NL spot is West Division rival San Diego.
With that in mind, the Padres almost cannot afford to lose today at home against skidding Washington ahead of a long trip. There are a handful of matinees on a getaway day, and this one has the co-latest start at 4:10 ET from Petco Park. It's the final meeting of the season between these clubs, with the Nationals having no shot at extra baseball. The public is smashing Padres money line. Bet $5+ on any of Wednesday's games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:
As things stand entering Wednesday, Arizona has a half-game lead over San Diego for that No. 6 seed, and I don't see either club truly threatening the Phillies or Cubs for one of the top two wild-card spots. DraftKings lists the Snakes as +145 favorites for that No. 6 spot and the Padres at +170, with no one else below +600. It just so happens that they close the regular season against each other Sept. 25-27 in San Diego, so that could be really fun. The series is currently deadlocked 5-5, so it may well come down to that final Sunday.
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Nationals-Padres MLB same-game parlay
- San Diego money line
- Alt Under 10.5
DraftKings SGP price: +114 (subject to change)
Today could be a nice spot for San Diego to regain that No. 6 seed, because obviously I think it wins here. The Diamondbacks are finishing a long road trip in Kansas City tonight, with struggling Merrill Kelly (9-13, 5.06 ERA) on the hill, so that may well be a loss.
I generally have rooted for the Padres to finally win the first World Series in franchise history in recent years, only because I so respect how aggressive general manager AJ Preller has been in terms of shipping out prospects at the trade deadline for veterans on short-term contracts. Preller did it again this year, landing two very good starting pitchers in lefty Robbie Ray from the Giants and righty Casey Mize from the Tigers for more prospects.
Both will be free agents, and frankly both have struggled with their new team. It probably won't surprise you to know that San Diego's farm system now ranks dead last in baseball due to all those Preller deals.
Today, it's another pending free agent in Walker Buehler (8-6, 4.56 ERA). While those numbers don't look that outstanding, if you take away three straight bad starts entering the All-Star break, that season ERA would be about 3.20. The veteran right-hander has been one of the most profitable starters in the majors at plus-$981 because the Padres are 19-9 in his 20 starts.
Buehler doesn't go super deep into games, which is why he has lost out on so many decisions. A handful of times he has failed to go even five full innings, but not since Aug. 6. Buehler hasn't allowed more than three earned in his past nine and has a single loss in that span.
Padres manager Craig Stammen recently shared why he though Buehler has been dialed in since after the break: "I think he smells the postseason. That's one thing that's part of his career is being a part of that every single year. So he smells that. He knows the team needs the quality starts."
Buehler was in five postseasons with the Dodgers earlier this decade and closed out the 2024 World Series win at Yankee Stadium with a Game 5 save. Buehler hasn't seen Washington this year, and the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 4.8 innings (don't agree there), 4.2 strikeouts, 4.9 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs. No current Nationals batter has more than five at-bats off him, and none have homered.
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Washington is playing out the string but at least has topped its 2025 win total, and it is likely to win its most games since 2019, when the franchise captured its only World Series. The Nationals have two stellar position players in second baseman CJ Abrams and DH James Wood, and both are having big seasons. Where did the Nationals get them? By sending Juan Soto to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline, another Preller special. He didn't do well on that deal.
The Nats are poised for a winless West Coast trip and have dropped six in a row overall (first loss of skid was at home). They set an unwanted MLB record for the most blown saves in a season with No. 38 in Tuesday's 5-4 loss despite leading 4-1 in the eighth. The mark for most blown saves had been held by the 2024 White Sox (37).
Washington's No. 9 overall prospect is lefty pitcher Jackson Kent (1-3, 5.55 ERA), who goes today. Many rookie pitchers are not bad at home but get hammered in unfamiliar environs. That's clearly Kent, as he's 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and .162 opponents' batting average in D.C. but 0-3 with a 7.43 ERA and .286 OBA away. The model forecasts Kent at 5.5 innings, 5.0 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. No San Diego batters have seen him in the Show.
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I'm 3-0 and up about +400 in parlays in this space this week (two MLB, one CFB), so let's keep the gravy train going. Yes, the Padres are dead last in the majors in OPS against lefty starters â that should help with the total. Again, though, every possible intangible is in their favor today, and they just have to have it. Maybe the Nats help us by giving Wood and/or Adams a breather. Seems like one of them is due a day off. . Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
