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The NBA Play-In Tournament kicks off Tuesday, April 14, as four teams are vying to reach the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs. The action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET with the upstart Hornets taking on the struggling Heat. The winner advances to Friday to face the loser of Wednesday's 76ers vs. Magic matchup, while the loser goes home. In the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers and Suns face off up at 10 p.m. ET with the winner facing the Spurs in the first round and the loser facing the winner of Wednesday's Clippers vs. Warriors contest.

We're taking a look at the latest Heat vs. Hornets and Blazers vs. Suns odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and making picks with recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2026 NBA Playoffs on a 38-17 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. It has returned well over $10,000 in NBA betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. 

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NBA Play-In Tournament picks for Tuesday, April 14

  • Heat-Hornets Under 228.5
  • Brandon Miller Over 23.5 Points + Assists
  • Suns money line vs. Trail Blazers
  • Deni Avdija Over 6.5 Rebounds

Heat-Hornets Under 228.5

Charlotte is a strong defensive team, ranking 10th in the NBA in points allowed (113.7 per game). The Heat are not, as they allow 117 points per contest (20th) while scoring 120 (second in NBA). In a game of such importance, the Hornets will be looking to slow things down and lock in on Miami's shooters. Charlotte's games went Under the total in 51 of 82 contests this season, including 27 of 41 at home. The SportsLine model has the Under hitting in 58.6% of its simulations, even as the total has dropped a few points from open.

Brandon Miller Over 23.5 Points + Assists

Miller is the Hornet's top scorer and is averaging this exact total at 20.2 points and 3.3 assists per game. All it will take is just a small bump to get Over this number. Miller had 22 points, five assists and 13 rebounds in his lone regular season home meeting with Miami, though the Hornets lost 128-120. The SportsLine props model projects Miller for 26.4 Points + Assists.

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Suns money line vs. Trail Blazers

The model gives an "A" grade to the Suns on the money line, as they are winning in 71% of its simulations. The Suns have won two of three meetings this season, but key players were missing for all three. Portland has to put up a lot of shots to win as they are 28th in the NBA in field-goal percentage and three-point shooting. The Suns have the NBA's fifth-best scoring defense, allowing less than 112 points per game. The model has the Blazers barely cracking 100 points and Phoenix winning easily.      

Deni Avdija Over 6.5 Rebounds

If the Blazers are going to win, Avdija is probably going to need to have a big game. He is averaging 6.9 rebounds per game, to go with 24.2 points and 6.7 assists. The All-Star has at least six rebounds in six of his past eight games, pulling down at least seven four times. With the adrenaline boost he should get from a game like this, the model is projecting Avdija to grab 8.1 rebounds Tuesday.

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