NFL futures 2026: Which teams are most likely to win division after finishing last in 2025?
Here's a look at the teams that finished last in each division during the 2025 NFL season and their chances at winning the division in 2026
Since the NFL adopted its current divisional structure in 2002, there have only been four seasons in which a team that finished in last place in its division did not go on to win that division the following year. We nearly had two teams pull off that feat in 2025, with the Chicago Bears capturing the NFC North after finishing last in the division in 2024 and the San Francisco 49ers coming up one game short of winning the NFC West. San Francisco ultimately finished third thanks to a heated battle with the eventual Super Bowl champions Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams.
It's never too early to look ahead to next year when it comes to football, so here's how each of the teams that finished last in their respective divisions are set up for the 2026 NFL season. DraftKings Sportsbook has released futures odds for division winners, so I'll rank the teams from most to least likely to continue this trend.
1. Detroit Lions (+160 to win NFC North)
Everyone gets a bit fortunate here with the Lions, who finished last in the division thanks to a five-game winning streak by the Minnesota Vikings to close the year. The Vikings swept the head-to-head series with the Lions and also had a better divisional record, so Detroit finished fourth despite going 9-8. Even with the coordinator losses and decline in performance in 2025, the Lions are our best bet for this worst-to-first trend.
Despite losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions still ranked fifth in points per game. David Montgomery's situation is in flux, but Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-ra St. Brown are still there. Sam LaPorta should be back after missing most of the year. Detroit's defense, at some point, is going to make it through a season without substantial injuries. This is a team that won the division in back-to-back seasons before faltering in 2025. It's more likely it gets back to that level of success as opposed to a continued decline.
2. New Orleans Saints (+340 to win NFC South)
I don't necessarily buy the surge New Orleans had at the end of the 2025 season or Tyler Shough as a franchise quarterback. That being said, Kellen Moore is a great offensive mind and should be able to build on the late push. Alvin Kamara's health will be a big question mark, but the Saints do have a path to adding impact players through free agency and the draft. However, that's not the primary reason for ranking New Orleans this high.
The rest of this division is a mess. The Buccaneers looked like they would ease to the title before collapsing down the stretch. There were plenty of injuries Tampa Bay had to sort through, but even one result changes the entire season for the Bucs. The Panthers and Falcons surged late in the season as well, and it was Atlanta's win over New Orleans in Week 18 that gave Carolina the postseason berth. This is a true toss-up division from a competition standpoint and if Shough is the real deal, the Saints have a path to the top.
3. Tennessee Titans (+750 to win AFC South)
The Titans were a disaster in 2025. They were 30th in scoring offense, 28th in scoring defense and 25th in turnover margin. New head coach Robert Saleh went 20-36 during his first head-coaching stint with the New York Jets. Tennessee has had back-to-back 3-14 seasons and the fan base is starting to express apathy. And yet, the Titans find themselves ranked here because of quarterback Cam Ward and the nature of this division. Ward was bad for most of his rookie season, but he started to figure some things out late in the year. The Titans are surely going to improve their skill group over the offseason, and Saleh alone will give the defense a boost.
This is one of the most confusing divisions in football heading into 2026. We had the hottest offense, hottest defense, biggest surprise turned dumpster fire and the Titans. You can believe the Jaguars and Texans continue their form from 2025 and the Colts figure things out at quarterback, or you can believe all those things are fluky. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, but if Ward shows why he was the No. 1 pick, the Titans could potentially have the best quarterback in the division. That's usually enough to turn things around.
4. New York Giants (+700 to win NFC East)
Say what you want about John Harbaugh's postseason failures with Lamar Jackson, but he knows how to win games. The Giants had to deal with their fair share of injuries but this team is not without talent. Jaxson Dart looks like a franchise quarterback, Malik Nabers should return healthy as a star receiver and this defensive line is capable of wreaking havoc on any given Sunday.
The primary concern? While the Giants are talented, so are the other teams in their division. The Eagles looked like shells of themselves and still managed to win the East. The Cowboys have a high-powered offense and can't get much worse defensively, while the Commanders made the NFC Championship Game when Jayden Daniels was healthy. It's a tough hill to climb, but New York's talent level puts it here.
5. Las Vegas Raiders (+2800 to win AFC West)
Now we're starting to get into the organizations you'd expect to be finishing last. The Raiders were a disaster in 2025 and the attempted quick fix with Pete Carroll and Geno Smith did not go as planned. Klint Kubiak steps in as the new head coach after serving as offensive coordinator for the Seahawks, who finished 2025 with the league's third-best scoring offense. Las Vegas is not exactly loaded with talent but Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer are solid. If the Raiders can add a big-time receiver, they may have something cooking for incoming quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He's expected to be the No. 1 pick after winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to the national title.
On paper, this looks like an impossible division for the Raiders to win. However, the Broncos are likely to regress as their underlying metrics didn't line up with a 15-win season. The Chiefs missed the playoffs in 2025 and could be without Patrick Mahomes for the beginning of the 2026 season. The Chargers, who are the current AFC West favorites, have not won the division since 2009. If Mendoza is the real deal from the jump, Kubiak and the Raiders have a shot to create some chaos.
6. Cleveland Browns (+1200 to win AFC North)
The Browns have an elite defense, which is something the Raiders cannot say. They've also got decent draft capital and can bolster the skill group offensively. Even if you believe the competition in the AFC North is easier than the AFC West, Cleveland's quarterback situation is unlikely to be materially different from what's going on in Vegas. Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel were both inconsistent, and we don't need to delve much into Deshaun Watson's decline since joining Cleveland.
Todd Monken comes in as the new head coach after the Browns let Kevin Stefanski, a two-time Coach of the Year winner, go. Monken went 13-25 in three seasons as the lead man at Southern Mississippi, and he's not bringing Lamar Jackson with him in this move. I expect plenty of struggles for Cleveland offensively, even if Sanders or Gabriel show improvement, and more frustration for a Browns defense that ranked fourth in yards allowed per game but finished 14th in points allowed per game.
7. New York Jets (+2000 to win AFC East)
New York does have some first-round picks to play with, but what's the plan here? Breece Hall might leave in free agency, Garrett Wilson could demand a trade at any moment and the defense finished 31st in points allowed per game. This is one of those situations where we are unlikely to see significant improvement for at least a couple more seasons, especially if the quarterback position can't be addressed. If the organization can exhibit patience, perhaps Aaron Glenn will be around to see this team actually achieve success. For 2026 though, it's highly unlikely the Jets come anywhere close to the Bills or Patriots.
8. Arizona Cardinals (+5000 to win NFC West)
There's an assumption Kyler Murray won't be with the franchise in 2026, though it's less of a foregone conclusion than people might think. If Murray does return, Arizona's offense doesn't look terrible on paper. The real problem is the opponents. The Seahawks are likely to bring back most of their Super Bowl-winning roster, the Rams are continuously pushing to win another championship and the 49ers won 12 games despite a litany of injuries to key players. Forget about winning the division; it's hard to find a path for the Cardinals to avoid another last-place finish in 2026 even if they look better than they did in 2025 because of the other teams in the division.
