NFL predictions: NFC North race is wide open entering Week 16

All four members of the NFC North have finished atop the division over the last seven years, with the Green Bay Packers capturing the crown three times and the Detroit Lions accomplishing the feat each of the last two campaigns. With three weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL season, only the Minnesota Vikings have been knocked out of contention for the title.

The Chicago Bears currently occupy first place in the NFC North with a 10-4 record, which marks the first time the team has reached double-digit wins -- and second in 13 seasons -- since going 12-4 and winning the division in 2018. Green Bay is right on their heels at 9-4-1, setting up an epic showdown at Soldier Field in Chicago on Saturday night.

The long-time rivals met at Lambeau Field just two weeks ago and the Packers came away with a 28-21 triumph, ending the Bears' five-game winning streak. Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes -- two to Christian Watson -- and Josh Jacobs rushed for 86 yards and a TD with 3:32 remaining in the fourth quarter that snapped a 21-21 tie.

Green Bay will be without Micah Parsons, who is tied for third in the NFL with 12.5 sacks, after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL in last week's 34-26 road loss to the Denver Broncos. In addition, Watson (chest/shoulder) and Jacobs (knee/ankle) are listed as questionable, while Chicago wideout Rome Odunze (foot) will miss his third straight game and running back D'Andre Swift (groin) is questionable.

Swift had one of his best games of the season in Chicago's 31-3 rout of the Cleveland Browns last Sunday as he ran for a pair of touchdowns and finished two yards shy of his fourth 100-yard rushing performance of 2025. His absence would be damaging for a Bears ground attack that is second in the NFL with an average of 151.9 yards per contest.

Chicago also is fifth in the league in total offense (369.1 yards), and on the other side of the ball, it can cause major problems for Love and the Packers' offense as it leads all teams in turnover differential (plus-20) and interceptions (21). Love went four straight games without an interception before being picked off by C.J. Gardner-Johnson in his first meeting with the Bears this year.

While things currently look somewhat bleak for a playoff berth for the Lions, let alone their third consecutive NFC North title, they can't be counted out just yet. It's difficult to do so to a team that is first in the NFL in scoring (30.6 points), third in passing (248.8 yards) and fourth in total offense (379.9).

Jared Goff ranks second in touchdown passes (29) and third in passing yards (3,672), Amon-Ra St. Brown is second in TD receptions (12) and Jahmyr Gibbs is tied for second with 13 rushing scores. Yes, Detroit has been wildly inconsistent since posting a four-game winning streak early in the season, alternating losses and victories over its last nine contests, but with such a high-powered offense, it certainly is capable of running the table to end the regular season.

Practially, the Lions should have their sights set on overtaking the Packers for the third wild card spot in the NFC. A win by Chicago on Saturday and a victory by Detroit against Pittsburgh the following day would leave the Lions just a half-game behind Green Bay with two remaining.

Detroit plays its final two games on the road against the Vikings and Bears, who visit the San Francisco 49ers after their meeting with the Packers. Green Bay hosts the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17 before closing out the regular season at Minnesota.

The Bears and Packers both have a chance to clinch a postseason berth this week. Whichever team wins their matchup will punch its ticket if the Lions lose or tie their meeting with the Steelers on Sunday. Should the Chicago-Green Bay game end in a deadlock, a loss by Detroit would send both clubs to the playoffs.

Even though the Bears own a slight lead in the NFC North, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently give the Packers the best chance to win the division. But the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, believes the window will close substantially for Green Bay with a loss on Saturday.

The same can be said for Chicago with a Week 16 defeat and, according to the model, Detroit's already extremely thin chances for the crown would completely disappear with a setback against Pittsburgh. A victory would slightly improve its outlook for the division title but considerably increase its prospects for a playoff spot.

The storied all-time series between Green Bay and Chicago is relatively close, with the Packers owning a 108-95-6 advantage in the regular season. The Bears have struggled mightily of late, however, winning only four of their last 30 meetings. Chicago hasn't posted consecutive victories against Green Bay since sweeping the two-game season series in 2007.

Caleb Williams and company obviously can't do that with a win in Week 16, but the Bears can move closer to - and even secure, with help -- their first postseason berth in five years. However, Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite against Chicago in the latest NFL odds at DraftKings, and the model is predicting a 26-23 triumph by the Packers.

The Lions are seven-point favorites at DraftKings in their matchup against the Steelers, with the ITL team's model calling for a 30-22 win by Detroit.