World Baseball Classic picks: Expert shares best bets for Team USA vs. Brazil on Friday
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca offers up the best wagers you can make for United States vs. Brazil in the World Baseball Classic
The United States opens up its 2026 World Baseball Classic campaign on Friday when it faces Brazil in a Pool B matchup at Daikin Park in Houston at 8 p.m. ET. Team USA, which will send Giants ace Logan Webb to the hill, is a prohibitive -6000 favorite (wager $6,000 to win $100) at DraftKings Sportsbook and is favored by 9.5 on the run line. Brazil, which will start Bo Takahashi, is a +1900 money-line underdog (wager $100 to win $1,900).
The money-line odds might be too steep for many bettors, but each WBC game offers dozens of other sports betting options. Before locking in any picks for Team USA's opening game of the World Baseball Classic, you have to check out what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has to say about it.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for Team USA vs. Brazil on Friday:
United States vs. Brazil best bets
- Team USA -2.5 Runs First 3 Innings (+115 Caesars, 0.5 units)
- Roman Anthony 1+ Home Run (+450 DraftKings, 0.25 units)
- Roman Anthony Home Run in First Plate Appearance (+1200 FanDuel, 0.25 units)
The Team USA money line is -6000 or worse at the major sportsbooks, and this game should almost be over before the first pitch is even thrown. Team Brazil enters the WBC through the qualifiers after not being in the tournament for more than a decade, and without even one active MLB player, it should be one of the teams that's on the outside looking in after pool play.
This roster does have some talent from the Japanese league, such as Game 1 starting pitcher Bo Takahashi, as well as some players with MLB ties, including Lucas Ramirez (Manny Ramirez's son) and Dante Bichette Jr. Still, the lineup that team USA will put out there should overwhelm most teams, especially those like Brazil that entered through the qualifying stage.
We all want to bet on this game and support the USA as we watch tonight, but the money-line price, high total set around 14, and the -9.5 or worse spread are not making it easy. Here are a few plays worth taking a shot on, but keep an eye on the lines for this game, since more options opened up as we got closer to game time in the first few games of the WBC.
Bet on Team USA at Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get a first-bet match up to $250, win or lose
With how potent the USA offense is, and the lack of experience and/or success of the Brazilian pitching staff against this level of talent, it won't be surprising to see the USA jump out to an early lead by multiple runs. Full game lines are set around -9.5 on the spread, but we get -2.5 here in the first three innings at +115 odds, so I'm going to take my shot there.
We'll likely get Logan Webb for the entire bet, and the Brazilian pitching staff is coming off a qualifying performance that saw it allow 15 runs in 33 innings. Bo Takahashi allowed five hits and was lucky to allow just one run in 2.1 innings during his only appearance of the qualifiers, which doesn't set him up for success here. Plus, Team Brazil isn't going to burn one of its top arms against the USA when it knows there is little chance of winning.
At worst, if we lose this bet, we'll be in a spot for a live betting opportunity on the full game spread, as it likely falls if the USA isn't up by at least a few runs after three innings.
Roman Anthony is one of the brightest young stars that the USA brings to this tournament, and he was recently confirmed by manager Mark DeRosa as the starting left fielder. That came after Anthony hit a long home run during an exhibition matchup earlier this week, positioning him to get the starting nod.
The Red Sox outfielder had picked up five hits in six spring games already, but the home run for Team USA was his first long ball of the year and should have him feeling good now. Coming off that performance, I'm going to back the 21-year-old to go deep in his first official game for Team USA, and with the +1200 price out there, we should at least take a shot on the first plate appearance homer, as well.
Takahashi doesn't scare me for Brazil, and whoever comes out of the bullpen should still give Anthony the advantage. There could be some substitutions here if Anthony as a lefty hitter sees left-handed relievers, but this is his first game with the team against an opponent it could beat by the mercy rule, so it's probably not the time to be playing matchups.
Playing time splits in a tournament like this are always tough to predict, mercy rules exist here and games can be cut short, so be aware of what you're betting on. For that reason, we'll lay out just a half unit between these two bets and look to hit one deep!
