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The New York Mets are having a disastrous season, but a strong showing against the Yankees in the Subway Series at Citi Field could kickstart a major turnaround. It's a terrific pitching matchup in Friday's opener between AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler of the Bombers and former Yankee and potential trade candidate Clay Holmes for the hosts.

Yankees-Mets DraftKings parlay (-120)

  • Mets +2
  • Alt Under 9

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Note that this game is an Apple TV exclusive at 7:10 ET, and it also will be broadcast on a display spanning a city block in Times Square. On the series line, the Yankees are -165 and the Mets are +130. The Yankees taking two of three is the +130 exact result favorite.

The Mets haven't lost a Subway Series since 2017 but many have been split since then, including the clubs splitting six in 2025. Each went 2-1 in its own ballpark. The Mets are at Yankee Stadium for three in mid-September when the Mets will probably be long eliminated from playoff contention and the Yankees fighting for seeding and the AL East title.

Both teams are having some issues right now. We've talked plenty previously about the injury-ravaged Mets, who remain without All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor for the foreseeable future. This week, No. 1 catcher Francisco Alvarez was lost for up to eight weeks after undergoing right meniscus surgery. Juan Soto already spent time in the IL this season and fouled a ball off his ankle Wednesday, necessitating X-rays. Those were negative and he played Thursday. The former Yankee is batting just .174 this month with two homers but was 2-for-5 with a dinger Thursday, so maybe he's waking up. 

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The Yankees have lost five of six to fall to second in the AL East. The offense has gone quiet with 14 total runs scored and two shutouts (all away), and ace lefty Max Fried had to leave Wednesday's loss in Baltimore after three innings because of elbow soreness as the team awaits MRI results. It was the first time in 10 starts this season that the 32-year-old Fried failed to reach the sixth inning. He leads the majors with 61 2/3 innings pitched.

Offensively, the issues can partly be attributed to injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Domínguez. Spots 5-9 in the lineup are now all easy outs with hitters like Jazz Chisholm and Austin Wells massively disappointing, whereas no team has gotten a better combined wRC+ from its Nos. 1-4 hitters than the Yankees. Aaron Judge is being pitched around lately with a single homer and RBI in the past six games.

"Overall, we've had a good offense," said manager Aaron Boone. "But we gotta get some more guys contributing regularly. And look, you see it around the league. There's a lot of really good players out there scuffling to this point, so it's part of it. We've had some guys flash it and start to pull themselves out a little bit, but we're obviously looking for a little more consistency."

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Judge has 16 homers, having fallen behind Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber (18) for the big-league lead. DraftKings has a cool prop on "Race to 20 Home Runs" and Schwarber is now the -500 favorite with Judge at +350. To hit at least one in this series, Judge is -200, while for at least two he's priced +230. To lead all players in the series in homers, Judge is +350 with teammate Ben Rice at +650 and Soto at +800.

Judge has never managed to face his one-time teammate in the Mets' Holmes (4-3, 1.86 ERA), who played for the Yanks from 2021-24. On a very team-friendly contract of three years and $38 million, Holmes is all but a lock to be dealt by the trade deadline if the Mets don't turn things around. They are still +335 to make the playoffs but have been playing somewhat better, also having won five straight series openers.

The 33-year-old Holmes has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his eight starts. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him for 5.5 innings pitched, 5.1 strikeouts, 4.9 hits allowed and 2.7 earned runs. He is +285 to get the win at DraftKings.

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The Yankees counter with one of the surprises of the American League in 25-year-old righty Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.35 ERA, 0.81 WHIP). He is the +220 favorite for the AL Cy Young Award and deservedly so – probably the leader to start the All-Star Game as well. Schlittler has caught a couple of breaks in that top contenders Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Fried both got injured. Fried had been right there with Schlittler for the Cy Young but is off the board now.

Friday will be Schlittler's first-ever look at the Mets. He's allowed just one home run to 202 total batters faced in 2026 and has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of his nine starts, including five in a row. The model has Schlittler at 6.1 innings, 6.4 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.8 earned runs. He is +130 to earn a win. 

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The weather is not conducive to many runs being scored with winds blowing in about 10 mph in Flushing and high temperatures only about 65. I think the Mets play up to their level of competition, but if either leg of the parlay pushes it just falls off. 

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