Bracketology stock watch: Michigan State, Florida trending up while Kansas and SMU struggle
Here's the rundown of who is trending up and who is trending down in college basketball as conference tournaments approach
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee isn't supposed to treat what happens in February and March any differently from what happens in November and December. A marquee Quad 1 win is a marquee Quad 1 win, regardless of whether it happened in a Caribbean hotel ballroom around Thanksgiving or in a March rivalry game with a huge TV audience.
The same goes for a bad loss. But as Selection Sunday approaches and as your office bracket pool nears, it makes sense for those of us not on the selection committee to take a look at who is trending up and who is trending down.
All hope is not lost for those going in the wrong direction. Take 2024 Alabama as an example. The Crimson Tide dropped four of six games entering the NCAA Tournament but proceeded to reach the first Final Four in program history.
On the flip side, teams currently surging aren't immune to problems in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia was on an eight-game winning streak that included an ACC Tournament title when it became the first No. 1 seed to ever lose against a No. 16 seed (UMBC) in the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
Now that we've cleared all that up, let's take a look at who is trending up and who is trending down in college basketball as the March action begins ramping up.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
📈Trending up📈
Florida
Record: 24-6 (15-2 SEC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 2 seed
Florida doesn't have the same elite resume as the sport's Tier 1A trio of Duke, Michigan and Arizona because it picked up a series of close losses early in the season against quality opposition. But the Gators are playing every bit as well as those three. With guards Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and Urban Klavzar finding a rhythm, a national title repeat is within reach.
Michigan State
Record: 24-5 (14-4 Big Ten)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 2 seed
Michigan State picked the right time to go on a four-game winning streak. As many of the other teams in the 2-4 seed range accumulated losses, the Spartans surged and are now in a great position on the No. 2 seed line entering Thursday's Senior Night game against Rutgers. Is it March? Yes. Is Tom Izzo still Michigan State's coach? Yes. Deep run incoming? Probably.
Saint Mary's
Record: 27-4 (16-2 WCC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
Saint Mary's entered the final week of the WCC's regular-season schedule without a single victory over a top-50 KenPom team, which made the Gaels' resume a little hollow. They remedied that in a forceful way by closing with victories over Santa Clara and Gonzaga. Sophomore guard Mikey Lewis is looking like a made-for-March star.
Ohio State
Record: 19-11 (11-8 Big Ten)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 9 seed
Ohio State is getting healthy and playing better at the right time. Those two things are probably related. The Buckeyes finally secured a marquee victory on Sunday against Purdue and backed it up with a 94-62 road beatdown of Penn State on Wednesday. This team can reach 20 victories and dramatically reduce any lingering doubt about its at-large credentials by holding serve against Indiana on Saturday in the regular-season finale
Georgia
Record: 21-9 (9-8 SEC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 7 seed
Georgia reached "lock" status for the NCAA Tournament by surging into the top 30 of resume metrics with a win over Alabama on Tuesday night. The Bulldogs have won four of their past five over a stretch that also includes victories over projected tourney teams Kentucky and Texas. The guard grouping of Jeremiah Wilkinson, Blue Cain and Marcus Millender could be a problem in the NCAA Tournament, and Somto Cyril is one of the nation's top rim protectors. When versatile forward Kanon Catchings also gets going, look out.
Cincinnati
Record: 17-13 (9-8 Big 12)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Next Four Out
It might be too little, too late, but Cincinnati is figuring things out. The Bearcats have won six of their past seven games and are making a late push for at-large consideration. The stretch includes wins over projected at-large teams UCF, Kansas and BYU. With a road win over TCU on Saturday and a nice stay in the Big 12 Tournament, Cincinnati may be able to resurrect a season that once appeared lost.
TCU
Record: 20-10 (10-7 Big 12)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
TCU added some gold plating to its NCAA Tournament resume by knocking off Texas Tech 73-65 on the road Tuesday night. The Horned Frogs also own neutral-site wins over Florida and Wisconsin, as well as a home win over Iowa State. With four wins over top-25 KenPom teams, TCU is a serious threat to make noise in the NCAA Tournament. This squad has won seven of eight games and should feel confident about its selection chances.
South Florida
Record: 21-8 (13-3 American)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 11 seed (auto-bid)
South Florida didn't do enough in nonconference play to build an at-large resume as the program scrambled to find a footing under first-year coach Bryan Hodgson. But the Bulls found their stride in American play and could be a nightmare matchup if they reach the Big Dance as a No. 11 or No. 12 seed. This is a great rebounding team with a couple of highly dangerous 3-point shooters in Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion.
Akron
Record: 25-5 (16-1 MAC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Out
There is more attention than usual on the MAC, but most of it is being directed toward Miami (Ohio). Don't sleep on the Zips. They lost 76-73 at Miami on Jan. 3 but have won 15 straight league contests since then. Akron is comfortably the league's highest-rated team in predictive metrics and has designs on making a third straight NCAA Tournament under coach John Groce, who is the half-brother of Miami coach Travis Steele. This looks like the best team of Groce's 9-year tenure.
📉Trending down📉
SMU
Record: 19-11 (8-9 ACC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
A year after missing the 2025 NCAA Tournament with a 23-10 record on Selection Sunday, SMU is in danger once again. Wednesday night's 77-69 loss to Miami was the Mustangs' third straight defeat and effectively eliminated whatever margin for error they may have had. Saturday's game at Florida State is a must-win, and an early exit from the ACC Tournament should be avoided.
BYU
Record: 20-10 (8-9 Big 12)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 7 seed
BYU is 1-4 since a season-ending injury to senior guard Richie Saunders in mid-February. But the Cougars' slide actually began in mid-January. BYU is just 4-8 since a 16-2 start, and it appears to be in a full tailspin following Tuesday's 90-68 loss at Cincinnati. This team is in no danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, but the visions of a deep run fueled by freshman star AJ Dybantsa have dissipated.
NC State
Record: 19-11 (10-7 ACC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
NC State has dropped five of its past six games and was embarrassingly uncompetitive in lopsided losses to Louisville, Virginia and Duke. This is coach Will Wade's first season, and that context is important since he inherited a 12-19 program. But it's nonetheless a little surprising to see the Wolfpack living life on the bubble after an 18-6 start.
Clemson
Record: 21-9 (11-6 ACC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
After falling short on the road against North Carolina on Tuesday, Clemson has dropped five of its past six games. A 20-4 start now feels like a distant memory. Though the Tigers don't appear to be in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, a home loss to a horrible Georgia Tech team on Saturday, followed by an early exit from the ACC Tournament, would make things interesting.
Iowa State
Record: 24-6 (11-6 Big 12)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 3 seed
Iowa State was the fourth No. 1 seed in the March Madness bracket preview less than two weeks ago. Since then, the Cyclones have gone 1-3. The stretch includes a rare home loss against a Texas Tech team playing without leading scorer and rebounder JT Toppin. The Cyclones are still a strong team, but they aren't looking like a realistic national title contender.
Kansas
Record: 21-9 (11-6 Big 12)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 4 seed
Kansas has dropped four of its past six games and is barely clinging to a No. 4 seed after an ugly 0-2 trip through Arizona. Darryn Peterson has logged 30+ in four straight games for the first time this season, but that hasn't translated to team success. Coach Bill Self is one of the greatest to ever do it, and he has a fascinating March project on his hands.
Louisville
Record: 21-9 (10-7 ACC)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 6 seed
Louisville is heading into a challenging regular-season finale at Miami on Saturday, having dropped three of its past five games. The Cardinals are a dispiriting 0-8 in "Quad 1A" games, which suggests this team has a lower ceiling than its top 15 rating in predictive metrics would indicate. A big run in the ACC Tournament could alter the perception, but this doesn't look like a team that can be trusted to last in the Big Dance.
Iowa
Record: 20-9 (10-8 Big Ten)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
Iowa's resume metrics have quietly been leaking oil the past few weeks. With four losses in their past six games and a brutal finishing stretch against Michigan and Nebraska ahead, the Hawkeyes are in danger of heading to the Big Ten Tournament riding bad vibes. Even a split with the Wolverines and Cornhuskers would positively flip the script.
Purdue
Record: 23-7 (13-6 Big Ten)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 3 seed
Purdue needed a late surge to overcome lowly Northwestern on Wednesday night and avoid a three-game losing streak. Still, the Boilermakers are just 2-3 over their last five as they head into Saturday's regular-season finale against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers are 6-6 over their past 12 and should no longer be viewed as a Tier 1 national title contender. Tier 2? Maybe.
San Diego State
Record: 19-10 (13-6 Mountain West)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Out
After losing four of its past five games, San Diego State's only hope of going dancing might be to win the Mountain West Tournament. The Aztecs have been slipping a bit defensively, and they don't have the perimeter firepower to overcome it. As a result, their streak of five straight Big Dance appearances is in serious jeopardy.
