The NCAA Tournament field is beginning to take some semblance of a shape as we near the downslope of the college basketball season. As things sit entering the home stretch, Purdue, Virginia and Villanova all have cleared their own paths to snagging No. 1 seeds in the postseason, while Duke, Michigan State, Xavier and Kansas are also very much still in the mix to be on the top line of a region in March.
But if you're a hardcore fan in the weeds of the sport (and if you're reading this, then the answer is yes), the real question you want to know if you're looking to wager a little cheddar on the sport is simple: which team (or teams) are the best value to bet on? There are 351 teams in college basketball, but perhaps only 20 or so realistic, well-known title contenders, along with a handful of teams everyone thinks about when pondering favorites.
You know, teams like Duke and Michigan State.
But which teams, based on SportsLine's latest analysis, net good value for gamblers? That's the heart of the issue we will address with seven teams -- the only seven -- that are statistically a good value when you break down the latest odds to win the title from Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and compare them to SportsLine projections of the latest projected bracket from CBS Sports Bracketology Expert Jerry Palm.
Before we get to the best values, here are the two worst: Duke and Michigan State.
The Blue Devils have 5-1 odds to win it all, but only won 8 percent of SportsLine simulations for a nehative value of -8.7 percent.
The Spartans were the most over-valued team carrying 4-1 odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but only winning 7.9 percent of SportsLine's projections for a negative value of -12.1 percent.
Here are the seven teams with value, followed by the latest odds to win the national title from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
| 1 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 8-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 16.1% Value: 5.0% Purdue took two early L's against Tennessee and Western Kentucky in the Battle 4 Atlantis, but hasn't lost since. The Boilermakers (21-2) are on a 17-game winning streak dating back to late November, and only three teams -- Duke, Villanova and Michigan State -- have better odds of cutting down the nets in April according to Westgate. Sportsline's projections give Purdue a 16.1 percent chance of winning it all in 2018, second best behind Villanova. So couple in Purdue's overall greatness with its slightly undervalued stock in Vegas, and it's why this team has the best overall betting value -- 5 percent -- in the NCAA. | |
| 2 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 4-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 22.5% Value: 2.5% Phil Booth's hand injury hasn't stopped Villanova on the hardwood yet, nor has it slowed the momentum it has in Vegas. At 4-1 odds, the Wildcats still have the best odds (4-1) of winning the trophy, and still have the second best value overall. A testament that 1.) Villanova is great and 2.) Somehow Villanova is still extremely undervalued. SportsLine gives the Wildcats a stunning 52.4 percent chance to make it to the Final Four and the best odds of any team, to win the NCAA championship. A title would give Nova its second in a three-year span. | |
| 3 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 60-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 2.7% Value: 1.1% With no Austin Wiley or Danjel Purifoy, Auburn has outperformed expectations. Heck, with them, it would still be incredible to see what the Tigers have done this season. As things stand, they are the sole leader in the SEC standings, a projected No. 2-seed in Jerry Palm's Bracketology, and boast 60-1 odds to win the whole thing. Their net value of 1.1 percent is third best among NCAA teams, which suggests that at 60-to-1, Auburn is a great value. | |
| 4 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 15-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 7.1% Value: 0.9% Kansas has once again emerged as the Big 12 regular-season title favorite after a bumpy start, and once again all signs point to the Jayhawks being a tough out in March. According to Westgate, only four teams have better odds to win the title. SportsLine gives KU a value of 0.9 percent, which suggests KU might be slightly undervalued in Vegas. Interestingly, the Jayhawks have a 27.7 percent chance of making it to the Final Four -- only slightly better odds Villanova has of winning it all. | |
| 5 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 40-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 3.0% Value: 0.6% It's hard to find a team that has been more consistent than Xavier with less publicity. Quietly, the Chris Mack-led Musketeers are 19-3, No. 6 in the latest AP poll, and nearly a lock to win multiple games in the Big Dance. According to SportsLine's projection model, Xavier has a 57.8 percent chance of making it to the Sweet 16 and a 7.7 percent chance of making a run to the title game. Its overall net value is fifth best, because despite 40-1 odds of winning the NCAAs, Xavier's value at SportsLine gives it a 3 percent chance of doing so. So the value is there if you're looking for a bit of a sleeper. | |
| 6 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 500-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 0.6% Value: 0.4% Clemson's odds have plummeted from 100-1 to 500-1 over the past two weeks, mostly due to the Tigers losing their second leading scorer Donte Grantham for the season. For that reason, Clemson's a tough gamble. It is 1-1 without him in the lineup already, and moving forward it will be difficult to see them improve after losing a player of Grantham's quality. However, right now Clemson still is good value in Vegas; its 500-1 odds of winning it all is slightly lower than SportsLine's projection of 0.6 percent, giving them good value overall. But again, this is a tough sell. | |
| 7 | |
Odds to win NCAA Tournament: 300-1 Percentage of SportsLine NCAA Tournament-winning projections: 0.6% Value: 0.3% Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey. Those two players, the stars of Marquette's vaunted backcourt, are why Marquette is an absolute steal at 300-1. Will they win the NCAAs? Probably not. But are they lethal enough to make a deep postseason run? Absolutely. Between the two backcourt buddies, they shoot a scorching 40.1 percent from the 3-point line. And as we've seen time and again in the tourney, guards -- and specifically those who can get en fuego in March -- have the ability to win big ball games as underdogs. That equation doesn't even factor in sophomore Sam Hauser, who is shooting 49.6 percent from 3-point range this season, which ranks third in the NCAA. | |
Odds to win 2018 NCAA Tournament (via Westgate)
| Team | Open | Current |
| Villanova | 12 /1 | 4 /1 |
| Michigan State | 20 /1 | 4 /1 |
| Duke | 12 /1 | 5 /1 |
| Virginia | 30 /1 | 8 /1 |
| Purdue | 60 /1 | 8 /1 |
| Kansas | 12 /1 | 15 /1 |
| Arizona | 20 /1 | 18 /1 |
| Kentucky | 10 /1 | 20 /1 |
| Wichita State | 20 /1 | 20 /1 |
| Gonzaga | 12 /1 | 25 /1 |
| Oklahoma | 30 /1 | 25 /1 |
| North Carolina | 12 /1 | 30 /1 |
| Florida | 20 /1 | 30 /1 |
| West Virginia | 30 /1 | 30 /1 |
| Cincinnati | 80 /1 | 30 /1 |
| Xavier | 80 /1 | 40 /1 |
| Saint Mary's | 40 /1 | 60 /1 |
| Auburn | 300 /1 | 60 /1 |
| Arizona State | 300 /1 | 60 /1 |
| Louisville | 12 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Michigan | 20 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Florida State | 40 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Seton Hall | 60 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Texas Tech | 300 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Ohio State | 300 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Tennessee | 300 /1 | 80 /1 |
| Butler | 20 /1 | 100 /1 |
| Miami | 50 /1 | 100 /1 |
| Creighton | 80 /1 | 100 /1 |
| Alabama | 80 /1 | 100 /1 |
| Texas A&M | 100 /1 | 100 /1 |
| TCU | 300 /1 | 100 /1 |
| USC | 60 /1 | 200 /1 |
| SMU | 80 /1 | 200 /1 |
| Nevada | 100 /1 | 200 /1 |
| Rhode Island | 300 /1 | 200 /1 |
| Texas | 300 /1 | 200 /1 |
| Missouri | 300 /1 | 200 /1 |
| Houston | 500 /1 | 200 /1 |
| NC State | 500 /1 | 200 /1 |
| UNLV | 1000 /1 | 200 /1 |
| Indiana | 20 /1 | 300 /1 |
| UCLA | 40 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Baylor | 50 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Virginia Tech | 100 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Syracuse | 100 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Marquette | 100 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Arkansas | 100 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Kansas State | 300 /1 | 300 /1 |
| Oregon | 60 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Notre Dame | 80 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Georgia | 200 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Clemson | 300 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Penn State | 300 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Nebraska | 300 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 500 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Boise State | 500 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Vermont | 1000 /1 | 500 /1 |
| New Mexico State | 1000 /1 | 500 /1 |
| Wisconsin | 60 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Iowa State | 80 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Vanderbilt | 80 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| VCU | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Maryland | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Minnesota | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Northwestern | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| South Carolina | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| San Diego State | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Utah | 100 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Providence | 200 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Oklahoma State | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Dayton | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Wake Forest | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| BYU | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Colorado | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Stanford | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| UCF | 500 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| LSU | 500 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| St. Bonaventure | 1000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Old Dominion | 1000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Belmont | 1000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Buffalo | 1000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| East Tennessee State | 1000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Western Kentucky | 1000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 2000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Bucknell | 2000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Washington | 2000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 2000 /1 | 1000 /1 |
| Illinois | 100 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Georgetown | 200 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Mississippi State | 300 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Davidson | 500 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Georgia Tech | 500 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Oregon State | 500 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Charleston | 1000 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Georgia State | 1000 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Boston College | 1000 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| Pennsylvania | 2000 /1 | 2000 /1 |
| UConn | 100 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| Ole Miss | 300 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| Memphis | 500 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| La Salle | 500 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| Fresno State | 500 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| Wyoming | 500 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| Princeton | 1000 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| UNC Greensboro | 5000 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| South Dakota | 5000 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| South Dakota State | 5000 /1 | 5000 /1 |
| St. John's | 300 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Iowa | 300 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Illinois State | 300 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| California | 300 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Richmond | 500 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Pittsburgh | 500 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Colorado State | 500 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| George Washington | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| George Mason | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Saint Louis | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| UNC Wilmington | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Harvard | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Yale | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Texas Arlington | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Arkansas State | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Oakland | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Valparaiso | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Northern Iowa | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Akron | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Ohio | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| New Mexico | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Utah State | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Washington State | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Chattanooga | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Grand Canyon | 1000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Louisiana Tech | 2000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| NC Central | 2000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Monmouth | 2000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Troy | 2000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| UTEP | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Mount St. Mary's | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| San Francisco | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Wright State | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Jacksonville State | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| North Dakota State | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Fort Wayne | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| IUPUI | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Texas State | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| Albany | 5000 /1 | 9999 /1 |
| FIELD (All others) | 300 /1 | 1000 /1 |