There are mad scientists everywhere in the beautiful game of basketball trying to find that next wrinkle to stump the competition. When that occurs, it will get plagiarized and regurgitated. By the time that happens, the basketball Einsteins are already cooking up something new.
Let's dive into 11 basketball trends – a splash of offense, a smidge of defense and a shred of roster-building – that could become major needle-movers during the 2024-25 campaign.
1. It's raining tacos (and treys)
We may be on the verge of the most prolific 3-point-happy shooting season in history. The record was set in 2018-19 when 38.7% of shots came from downtown.
Bold prediction: we eclipse 40% in 2024-25.
One big uptick comes in transition. Ten years ago, just 15 teams averaged four or more transition 3-point attempts. Last season, 77 teams fired at least four transition treys per game.
Drastic changes are coming for big-name programs across the sport. Louisville's 3-point rate was a measly 31.2% last season under Kenny Payne, but the Cardinals' brass hired Pat Kelsey who has long led teams who rate near the top of the sport in 3-point rate. Louisville may shoot more 3-pointers than 2-pointers next season. Kentucky could join 'em after hiring Mark Pope who had BYU shooting treys on 50.4% of its attempts.
It's not just a handful of teams who have made it a point to shoot more 3-pointers. It's everywhere.
Wisconsin casually shot 32 3-pointers in Wednesday's exhibition game against UW-River Falls. No big deal, right? Wrong. The Badgers had attempted more than 32 treys in just three games over the last five seasons combined.
"We're gonna shoot 3s because that's where the game is," Badgers coach Greg Gard told reporters in the postgame presser.
Adapt or die.
2. Switch it up
Defensive coordinators are scurrying to find solutions after offenses exploded in 2023-24 to post historic numbers. One point of emphasis in roster-building is finding enough defenders who can switch quickly to douse potential fires.
"There's a bigger emphasis on shooting, spacing the floor and people are getting more analytical with 3s and layups," Notre Dame coach Micah Shrewsberry told CBS Sports. "The hardest stuff now is you need to take away the advantages of playing team basketball. You have to force people to play one on one. As you start to move on, you'll see more switching. I think you'll see more mobility defensively with guys where they can guard multiple positions. As we recruit, that's what we're getting to bigger, longer, more athletic across the board. If you're able to switch more and guard guys one on one, I think it slows down offenses and forces you to play more of a one-on-one game, instead of a team game. I think you'll see people trending back that way with more switching to slow teams down."
Of course, switching is nothing new. Last December, Kansas used a switch-everything defense to hold UConn to one of its lowest offensive marks of the season in a 69-65 non-conference victory. Four days later, North Carolina tried to do a similar switch-everything gameplan against UConn's layered offense and promptly got eviscerated to the tune of 1.23 points per possession.
Having a plan is awesome. Executing said plan? Whole different story.
USC, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Arizona and Providence are some teams that have built rosters that look more than capable of switching everything at four spots, at least. Don't be surprised if it becomes more common for defensive coordinators across the landscape.
3. Finding a trusty 5-out option could tilt the scales
Shooting 3-pointers is great and all, but layups (or dunks) are still the most efficient shot in basketball. Those offenses that have a true 5-out center who can stretch the floor, drag that shot-blocker away from the rim and keep the paint open for rim pressure can hit different gears in 2024-25.
Just having that 5-out option might be a separator for a college basketball landscape that feels so wide open.
Having frontcourts who can shoot (and maybe pass a little bit) just opens up numerous different avenues to find cracks in the armor. Villanova has had it for a hot second with Eric Dixon. Louisville will have that when Kasean Pryor and Noah Waterman are on the floor together. Marquette can do it with David Joplin and Ben Gold. Illinois will lean on it often thanks to Ben Humrichous and Tomislav Ivisic. Ole Miss has numerous five-out options. So does Auburn, Ohio State and UCLA with Johni Broome, Aaron Bradshaw and Tyler Bilodeau, respectively.
Just having changeups in the holster feels so vital. Alabama will start Cliff Omoruyi at center to provide a defensive thump and a real rim-runner. Omoruyi's defender might be sagged into the paint, but Nate Oats can counter by using him in … hand-offs to scrape would-be defenders off Mark Sears for open triples. But when Alabama wants to tap the five-out option, it can do so with Jarin Stevenson and Grant Nelson toggling between the 4 and the 5. Or maybe Aiden Sherrell –– who has been shooting the cover off it in preseason workouts –– can fill that void.
A 5-out center is not a must, but it's a welcomed luxury.
It's partially why big men on the prep recruiting ranks and in the transfer portal have skyrocketing price tags. Sometimes, the best approach is to pair a rim-runner with a 5-out center to get the best of both worlds. That's sort of what Michigan did with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Gonzaga has a similar look with Graham Ike (a banger) teaming up with Braden Huff (a shooter).
That's a big reason why Alabama and Gonzaga are my preseason picks to meet in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game.
4. The Year 2 transfer jump is just getting started
There's a long list of transfers who have elevated into All-American-caliber studs in Year 2 with their new program.
These are some of the top examples from the 2022 transfer portal cycle:
- UConn's Tristen Newton (pro)
- Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. (pro)
- Kansas' Kevin McCullar (pro)
- Providence's Devin Carter Jr. (pro)
- Kentucky's Antonio Reeves (pro)
- Creighton's Baylor Scheierman (pro)
- Alabama's Mark Sears (future pro)
- Auburn's Johni Broome (future pro)
Or how about from the 2021 cycle?
- Penn State's Jalen Pickett (pro)
- Marquette's Tyler Kolek (pro)
It's a real thing, and it's not going anywhere in 2024-25.
Studs like Gonzaga's Ryan Nembhard, Grand Canyon's Tyon Grant-Foster, Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. and Wake Forest's Hunter Sallis are the biggest candidates to elevate from really good to great. All three should be in the All-American discussion in March.
There are also plenty of reasons to be bullish on the Year 2 transfer jump being good to dudes like Arizona duo Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love, Texas' Kadin Shedrick, Alabama's Grant Nelson, Syracuse's JJ Starling,Nebraska's Brice Williams, Iowa State's Keshon Gilbert and Auburn's two-man band of Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones.
Landing a transfer in the portal is valuable. Keeping 'em for Year 2 is when special things can happen.
5. Missouri Valley transfers were not a flash in the pan
Missouri Valley Conference transfers didn't get a lot of buzz in the 2023 portal cycle, but they ended up being key cogs.
Purdue does not make the National Championship Game without the contributions from Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones who hit maybe the biggest 3-pointer in school history in the Elite Eight dub against Tennessee. Illinois doesn't sniff a No. 3 seed and an ensuing Elite Eight run without the heroics from Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask. Iowa didn't make the Big Dance, but it was not Valpo transfer Ben Krikke's fault. Keisei Tominaga was Nebraska's most known player, but Bradley transfer Rienk Mast might have been the Huskers' MVP. He'll be missed in 2024-25 while he recovers from a knee injury. Get healthy, Mister Mast.
Guess what? Missouri Valley transfers are back to dominate even more in 2024-25. So many of these dudes rock. Saint Louis will go as far as its bespectacled legend Robbie Avila takes it. West Virginia will lean hard on the silky-smooth Tucker DeVries to carry on the DeVries Family Business. Xavier has super-duper high hopes for Ryan Conwell, and Illinois is ready to unleash a sniper like Ben Humrichous.
It's a double-edged sword. Good players are going to get even more well-deserved exposure at the high-major ranks, but a great league like the Missouri Valley was also pillaged.
I mean, look at this.
2023-24 First team All-MVC | Where they are now |
|---|---|
Robbie Avila, Indiana State | Transferred to Saint Louis |
Tucker DeVries, Drake | Transferred to West Virginia |
Duke Deen, Bradley | Stayed at Bradley |
Xavier Johnson, Southern Illinois | Graduated |
Malevy Leons, Bradley | Graduated, Oklahoma City Thunder signee |
Second-team All-MVC | Where they are now |
Ryan Conwell, Indiana State | Transferred to Xavier |
Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Belmont | Transferred to Maryland |
Jayson Kent, Indiana State | Transferred to Texas |
Isaiah Swope, Indiana State | Transferred to Saint Louis |
Cade Tyson, Belmont | Transferred to North Carolina |
Third-team All-MVC | Where they are now |
Malik Dia, Belmont | Transferred to Ole Miss |
Connor Hickman, Bradley | Transferred to Cincinnati |
Nate Heise, Northern Iowa | Transferred to Iowa State |
Julian Larry, Indiana State | Transferred to Texas |
Alston Mason, Missouri State | Transferred to Arizona State |
MVC All-newcomer team | Where they are now |
Ryan Conwell, Indiana State | Transferred to Xavier |
Malik Dia, Belmont | Transferred to Ole Miss |
Ben Humrichous, Evansville | Transferred to Illinois |
Myles Foster, Illinois State | Transferred to Clemson |
Isaiah Swope, Indiana State | Transferred to Saint Louis |
6. Handoffs, the hoops version
Ten years ago, just 19 college basketball teams used handoffs to finish 5% or more of their possessions. Last season, it was 95. Teams are smartly weaving more and more handoffs into their offensive sets because they put opposing defenses in so much conflict with much lower risk. The median turnover rate on handoffs last season was around 12% compared to 17.4% for ball-handlers in pick-and-rolls.
No one scored more points using handoffs than Fred Hoiberg's Nebraska club, fueled by the brilliant Keisei Tominaga. But Alabama, Marquette, Xavier and Princeton are other smart offenses whose playbook is littered with creative ways to use hand-offs to generate advantages.
Oh, and that sneaky club in Storrs. They shred with them, too.
7. Small guards are fine
PSA: I am not concerned about small guards this season.
A ton of teams are slated to start guards who check in at 6-foot-2 or shorter. Thirteen of the 16 SEC clubs will have a 6-2 guard in the lineup. Twelve of the 16 Big 12 teams will have the same thing. There are 12 in the Big Ten, 13 in the ACC and nine more in the Big East.
Positional size at point guard is a great asset to have and a separator for NBA prospects. Teams like Duke (Tyrese Proctor), Rutgers (Dylan Harper), Illinois (Kasparas Jakucionis) and Georgia (Silas Demary Jr.) will reap the rewards, but it's not a make-or-break thing for teams who want to win big in college.
Plus, YOU go tell Tennessee's Zakai Zeigler that his 5-9 frame is a detractor to his game. Let me know how that goes.
8. Can you marry elite offensive rebounding with elite transition defense?
Tony Bennett has been in the news a lot (he retired if you didn't hear), so we'll use his teams for an example. Virginia annually built one of the best transition defenses in the country, but Bennett's clubs rarely hit the offensive glass super hard. Instead, Virginia methodically tried to get a good shot and if it missed, it got back in a hurry to set its outstanding defense.
Houston does a lot of special things, but its ability to go hunt offensive rebounds at a ridiculously high clip while also getting back to limit transition scoring opportunities might be its secret sauce. Houston's big men are beautiful maniacs who go after every loose ball with a fury, and the Cougars' guards are usually trotting back and in constant communication of who is yanking a free runner into their respective webs.
Houston allowed just 7.5 transition points per game last season. That ranked third-best nationally. Houston ripped down 36.8% of the available offensive rebounds. That ranked 11th-best nationally.
It's stupid stuff.
Saint Mary's (No. 3 in transition defense, No. 3 in offensive rebounding) and North Carolina (No. 8 in transition defense, No. 59 in offensive rebounding) are two other clubs that are great at this.
But it's so hard to thread this line well. The teams that can have their cake, with second-chance opportunities, and eat it, too, by limiting fastbreak opportunities where the offensive efficiency spikes, might have the ultimate cheat code.
9. Freshmen are back!
Two seasons ago, just 62 players from the Class of 2022 cracked double figures as freshman. That was the lowest mark in the last two decades. Last season was even worse. Just 61 true freshmen averaged 10 or more points. That's a far cry from 2015 when 124 (!) true freshmen averaged double figures.
Don't be surprised if 2024-25 is the season when freshmen start to buck recent trends.
There used to be some questions about the top of the Class of 2024, but those have disappeared. Duke's Cooper Flagg is ready to go. The preview of the Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey show has already reached fevered heights at Rutgers. Others like Alabama's Labaron Philon, Duke's Kon Knueppel, Arkansas' Boogie Fland, Texas' Tre Johnson, Georgia's Asa Newell and Baylor's VJ Edgecombe have generated absurd hype before playing a college game that counts.
Plus, this international crop of freshmen is unrivaled. BYU's Egor Demin and Illinois' Kasparas Jakucionis will be handed the keys to the racecar.
College basketball is still grizzled and old, but these diaper dandies look way more ready for primetime than previous iterations.
10. Zoning and the occasional 'dorking'
Sharp NBA teams, like the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat, have been experimenting with matchup zone defenses to slow down some of these brilliant isolation scorers. If the NBA is doing it, college teams will flirt with it. Jim Boeheim isn't strolling the Syracuse sidelines anymore, so the best zone defense is housed in the MAAC.
Joe Gallo's Merrimack club played zone 89.4% of the time last season, had the No. 1 defense in its league and finished with a top-80 defensive rating nationally.
Maybe it's counterintuitive, but Merrimack's funky defense forced plenty of turnovers and allowed very few 3-point attempts.
In a way, Merrimack could "dork" some teams, leaving poor shooters unguarded on the perimeter and coaxing them into taking shots they don't want to take. In Merrimack's loss to Ohio State, Gallo was probably more than fine that the Buckeyes' fifth option, Evan Mahaffey, took the same number of shots (5) as All-Big Ten guard Bruce Thornton (5).
Basketball is a copycat sport. If it's working somewhere, it will be tried at other levels.
11. Using skill where size usually lives
Maybe this is the season when inverted screens reach a fever pitch. Utilizing guards who can operate as screeners and rollers can give smart offenses extra trigger points to open up even more space.
There will also be plenty of times when five-out offenses use guards in the dunker spot, located right outside the paint on the baseline, as a secondary playmaker to spray it out to shooters, find cutters or splash nifty floaters.
The Boston Celtics use it all the time with Jrue Holiday in the dunker spot.
Some teams can stay traditional because it works for them. Others may be able to try new things because it has a big man who can pass, dribble and shoot which allows guards to do "big man stuff."
Offense, at its core, will always be about finding ways to get two defenders to the basketball. Using skilled, smaller players where big players have usually set up a tent and lived is another way offensive coordinators can get defenses scrambling for cover.