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National Signing Day has passed and the transfer portal cycle has mostly run its course, which means that the outlook for the 2026 season from a roster construction perspective is starting to become more clear. Spring practice will provide insight into the development of potential contributors and the makeup of depth charts, but we can now use a broad brush to get a sense for how college football teams will stack up against each other heading into the fall. 

But in the ACC, the outlook for how the 17-team league stacks up against each other could not be any murkier. There are positions, mostly at the top and the bottom, where we can feel confident slotting teams given the squad we are expecting to see on the field. But as you will see in our way-too-early attempt at 2026 ACC power rankings, differentiating the teams in the conference's middle pack(s) is a fool's errand. 

That really should not come as a surprise, by the way, when you consider the ACC's recent history. Last season, the final conference standings produced a five-way tie for second place that required a winning-percentage-of-conference-opponents tiebreaker (the fifth tiebreaker step in the bylaws) to determine eventual champion Duke as the opponent for Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. But the conference standings logjam extended even beyond that, as five more teams were all tied for seventh place with a 4-4 league record. 

MORE: Big Ten power rankings | SEC power rankings | Big 12 power rankings

Overall, the league had 11 bowl teams in 2025 and nine of those teams finished with either seven, eight or nine wins on the season. It's a conference with a beefy upper middle class and razor-thin margins, making it easy to see how a team we project as the ninth-best could finish second and vice versa. 

The only certainty here in early February is at the top, where the reigning national runner-up returns for an encore season with a roster worthy of the No. 1 spot. Mario Cristobal is reloading for another run, this time hoping to claim the elusive ACC Championship as well as another College Football Playoff bid. 

1. Miami 

There is no expectation for a drop-off after Miami's memorable run to the national championship game, which solidified the Hurricanes as the class of the ACC moving forward. The talent acquisition operation under Mario Cristobal continues to be top-notch, and with 23 wins over the last two seasons the on-field results have shown up as well. There will be losses from last year's program-changing squad like Carson Beck and Rueben Bain Jr., but the transfer portal addition of Duke quarterback Darian Mensah answers one of the biggest question marks on offense for 2026. Mensah will be joined by returning stars Mark Fletcher Jr. and Malachi Toney to lead a group that could be among the best in the conference, and the portal also provided some pass rush help with Missouri star Damon Wilson II joining the fold. In total, we've got a program that's been recruiting out of high school at an elite level that just added the fourth-best portal class in the country. With a lot of questions elsewhere, it's clear that the ACC runs through The U.    

Way-too-early College Football Playoff projection for 2026 season: Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana on top
Brad Crawford
Way-too-early College Football Playoff projection for 2026 season: Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana on top

2. SMU 

If not for a 38-35 loss at California on the final Saturday of the regular season, SMU would have been 2-for-2 playing in the ACC Championship Game in its first two years of conference membership. But even with that disappointment it's hard to ignore the body of work Rhett Lashlee has put together with the Mustangs since joining the league. SMU is 14-2 against ACC competition in the regular season and last year logged wins against Miami, Louisville and Clemson. While the transfer portal class is not as robust as previous cycles with 15 commits coming in and nearly two dozen players headed out, there's quality with players like running back Kendrick Raphael from Cal and edge rusher Ira Singleton from South Florida. The portal activity also might be a sign of a roster that's got good structure already, and with quarterback Kevin Jennings back for another season there's continuity that points to another year of ACC title contention. 

3. Virginia 

Tony Elliott and his staff went all-in on 2025 with one of the largest transfer portal classes in Virginia football history and it paid off with the first 11-win season in school history and a top-20 finish in the AP Top 25 poll. With Chandler Morris a host of those key contributors now gone, the Wahoos are back to investing in the portal with a 29-player haul that includes instant-impact additions in nearly every position room. That includes two intriguing quarterback options with Beau Pribula from Missouri and Eli Holstein from Pittsburgh, as well as First Team All-AAC defensive lineman Zion Wilson from East Carolina. Life in a portal-heavy program can make success a year-to-year proposition, but from investment to evaluation it seems like Virginia has found a formula that works in Charlottesville. 

4. Louisville 

Much like SMU, Louisville has established itself as one of the programs you should pencil into the top tier of the conference based on recent success. Jeff Brohm has 28 wins over the last three seasons and through this past year's conference record (4-4) was his worst since taking over at his alma mater, the aggressive roster makeover suggests the Cardinals aren't looking to run back much of what was or wasn't working in 2025. Former Ohio State quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has the potential to be Brohm's fourth portal quarterback in as many years, and he'll be supported by some highly-rated pass catching options like wide receiver Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt), tight end Brody Foley (Tulsa) and wide receiver Lawayne McCoy (Florida State). But perhaps the biggest portal headline was the decision of star running back Isaac Brown to stay put, and after a 2025 season that saw him nagged by injury the gifted All-ACC back could be poised for a bounce-back breakout in 2026. 

5. Virginia Tech 

The James Franklin era begins in Blacksburg with plenty of Penn State flavor, as 12 of Virginia Tech's 27-player transfer portal class are former Nittany Lions. Among them are quarterback Ethan Grunkmeyer and tight end Luke Reynolds, who along with Duke transfer wide receiver Que'Sean Brown give Hokies fans some reasons to be excited about the offense in 2026. Given Franklin's success recruiting top talent it shouldn't come as a surprise that Virginia Tech has the fourth-best portal class in the ACC and one that ranks 19th nationally, but the heavy turnover associated with the coaching change might have the Hokies a year away from jumping into that top tier and competing with Miami and others for conference supremacy. 

6. NC State 

The enthusiasm for 2026 in Raleigh starts first and foremost with the return of quarterback CJ Bailey. With 25 touchdown passes and just nine picks, Bailey was second in the ACC in touchdown-to-interception ratio while also finishing third in completion percentage (68.8%). A gifted player from South Florida who continues to improve with experience, Bailey could have been a much-coveted player in the portal had he entered but chose to return for a third season with the Wolfpack. Unfortunately, the portal did end up taking some of Bailey's top offensive teammates as running back Hollywood Smothers (Texas), wide receivers Noah Rogers (Alabama) and Terrell Anderson (USC) and star tackle Jacarrius Peak (South Carolina) all will be playing elsewhere. Still, whether it's the potential of backup running back Duke Scott or the addition of JoJo Trader from Miami there's enough potential to think Bailey, and the Wolfpack, will be set for another season of success in 2026. 

7. Clemson 

There is not much of a transfer portal report for Dabo Swinney's group, as the Tigers are poised to welcome in just nine transfers in a class that ranks 69th nationally and 15th in the ACC. Now, to Dabo Swinney's credit this is not a program that loses a lot of transfers and the Tigers have continued to recruit out of high school at a high level even while the on-field success has taken a step back. Betting on Clemson's success in 2026 is belief in a new wave of talent taking over in the wake of a mass exodus from last year's squad, which started the year with title hopes and plenty of NFL-bound talent but never found its footing as a legit contender. Maybe new blood can yield new results after a couple of seasons of underperforming, but there's enough unknown to prevent a placement inside the top five of the league when it comes to power rankings. 

8. Georgia Tech 

There is some notable turnover for Georgia Tech after a strong 2025 that saw the Yellow Jackets start 8-0 and reach the top 10 of the rankings before stumbling a bit down the stretch. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes are off to the pros after a couple of years as the cornerstone of the offense, and when offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner departed to join Jon Sumrall's staff at Florida he took with him the heir apparent at quarterback (Aaron Philo) and a couple projected starters in tight end Luke Harpring and offensive lineman Harrison Moore. Luckily, Brent Key and his staff have built a strong foundation that is attracting talent and the Yellow Jackets got some solid portal additions like running back Justice Haynes (Michigan), edge rusher Noah Carter (Alabama) and newly-minted national champion Alberto Mendoza from Indiana. If the Fernando's brother clicks into place as a difference-maker, Georgia Tech's ceiling is back to competing for the ACC title. But until we see it on the field with the new offense we'll keep the Yellow Jackets in the hyper-competitive middle tier of the league. 

9. California

It's hard not to be enthusiastic about the start of the Tosh Lupoi era in Berkeley. He started by locking down one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the country, getting Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to commit to being on board for 2026, and that momentum carried over into a successful transfer portal cycle for the Bears. Cal finished with a portal class that ranks second in the ACC behind Miami and 14th nationally, checking in just behind Texas A&M and Auburn and just ahead of Arizona State and Michigan. The class is bolstered by size (30 players), yes, but also with quality particularly on offense. Three of the five blue-chip portal prospects in the class are pass catchers for JKS, which should be a welcome change after the Bears were ranked second in the ACC and tied for 14th nationally in drops last season.      

10. Florida State 

The deep disappointment of the 2025 season casts a shadow over expectations for 2026, because the rapid collapse from top-10 in the country to Mike Norvell hot seat conversations occurred so quickly it made that season opening win against Alabama seem like a fever dream. The issue at hand is that since the 2023 College Football Playoff snub, Florida State is 3-13 against ACC opponents and so far from the program standard in multiple ways that it's tough to see how one season could spark a return to the top of the league. Florida State's portal class ranks fifth in the ACC and 26th nationally, but some of the biggest portal wins were talented young players that decided to stay put in Tallahassee. Quarterback will be a big question as Ashton Daniels arrives from Auburn to lead an offense that will now be coordinated by Tim Harris after Gus Malzahn's retirement, and the Seminoles face a brutal schedule that will challenge their bona fides early and often with games against SMU, Alabama, Louisville and Miami all before mid-October.  

11. Duke 

Two players do not make an entire roster, but the late-cycle losses of quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cooper Barkate certainly dent the outlook for Duke in 2026. Mensah was one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and Barkate finished second only to Malachi Toney with 1,106 receiving yards on the season. Throw in the departures of Que'Sean Brown to Virginia Tech and Terry Moore to Ohio State and it's tough to say Duke came out on the positive side of this portal cycle. Walker Eget arrives from San Jose State to give Duke some proven experience at the quarterback position, but Manny Diaz will have to really rely on that culture that's helped power back-to-back nine-win seasons to keep the Blue Devils on the winning side of narrow margins in 2026. 

12. North Carolina 

Though it is Year 2 of the Bill Belichick era, the roster turnover heading into 2026 had the Tar Heels looking a bit more like Year 1 Part II. North Carolina lost approximately 30 players to the transfer portal off last year's team and will be replacing them with a 19-player portal class and 40 true freshmen from the Class of 2026. And while that freshman class does include some exciting quality, ranking 18th nationally and third in the ACC, it's going to be a challenge for those young players to build on last season's 4-8 results when the schedule is slated to be more difficult in 2026. The addition of Billy Edwards Jr. at quarterback does give the Tar Heels a potential starter who has legitimate power conference experience, and the hire of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator seems to guarantee an improvement after the team fielded one of the least productive offenses in school history. But while steps forward on offense will be a welcome change the lack of experience and competitive depth makes it difficult to slot Belichick's squad ahead of too many other teams in the league.   

13. Pittsburgh

The good news for Pitt when it comes to the 2026 outlook is that the Panthers should be set at quarterback with the return of Mason Heintschel. As a true freshman, Heintschel was handed the starting job in early October and proceeded to lead the Panthers to wins in each of his first five starts throwing 12 touchdowns in that span. Unfortunately Heinstschel, and the Panthers in general, cooled off down the stretch with lopsided losses to Notre Dame and Miami as well as a bowl defeat to ECU. But the promise of Heinstschel as a difference-making quarterback remains, even if there are some real questions about his supporting cast. The Panthers are losing stars like linebacker Kyle Louis and all-purpose back Desmond Reid to the NFL while key contributors like defensive lineman Francis Brewu (Notre Dame), linebacker Rasheem Biles (Texas) and wide receiver Kenny Johnson (Texas Tech) all sought other options in the transfer portal. An incoming portal class of 16 players ranks 16th among 17 teams in the ACC, meaning there is a lot of pressure on the program's internal development to avoid taking a step back in 2026. 

14. Wake Forest  

Jake Dickert worked wonders in Year 1 leading Wake Forest to a nine-win season when the preseason projections had simply making a bowl as a marker of great success. The Demon Deacons logged high-end wins against Virginia and SMU, and capping the season with a bowl win against an SEC foe in Mississippi State should have sparked a surge of momentum into the offseason. Unfortunately there will be a lot of "back to square one" in Winston-Salem, because a huge core of last season's success will be gone. Star running back Demond Claiborne, All-ACC defensive back Nick Andersen and starting quarterback Robby Ashford are out of eligibility, while backup quarterback Deshawn Purdie and several other difference-makers have hit the portal. Gio Lopez provides an option at quarterback after a bumpy year at North Carolina, and we have to trust Dickert's evaluation skills after doing a great job building out the roster in 2025. But it's tough to face another Year 1-type scenario in Year 2, so we'll see what it looks like on the field.  

15. Syracuse  

First and foremost, having a healthy Steve Angeli at quarterback should make a huge difference for Syracuse. His early-season injury and the inability for the backups to find their footing basically left the Orange with a wholly ineffective offense during the second half of the season. Syracuse averaged 12.7 points per game across a seven-game losing streak to close the year, scoring more than 17 points just once and losing every game by double digits. Fran Brown said that while Angeli won't take live reps during spring practice as he continues to recover from a ruptured Achilles, he should be good to go by the summer and ready to lead the offense in the fall. Now the rest of the supporting cast? That's a big question as the Orange lost 28 players to the transfer portal and will be adding just 18, with holes to fill including the top four pass catchers, top two running backs and plenty of defensive production. 

16. Stanford

General manager Andrew Luck seems enthused about the future of Stanford football with new head coach Tavita Pritchard leading the charge, and given the way the Cardinal arguably exceeded expectations in 2025 it's worth granting some optimism regarding the efforts to field a competitive squad. But from a power ranking perspective, just looking at last year's results and the roster changes in the offseason, it might be a year or two before we really see Luck and Pritchard's full vision on the field. Stanford has a solid 2026 recruiting class that ranks eighth in the ACC, but its nine-player portal class ranks 17th and though there's exciting additions (like cornerback Leroy Bryant from Washington) there's not enough turnover to expect a wildly different set of results on the field right away. 

17. Boston College 

Bill O'Brien said that the sun is still shining and Boston College is still competing, but I would not blame a BC fan for feeling a little cloudy about the Eagles' potential in 2026. The roster is getting a fairly significant overhaul with 29 players hitting the portal and 25 players coming in, and in that flip is the loss of quarterback Dylan Lonergan, leading rusher Turbo Richard and wide receiver Reed Harris, who led the team in touchdown receptions. The transfer class and the high school recruiting class both rank 14th in the ACC, per 247Sports, so while the 49-player infusion of new faces could change the vibes the projections are not for a quick fix to last season's woes.