I was reminded this weekend of a moment from my undignified high school football career. I played at right tackle, but due to injuries in a game, I was kicked to right guard, a position at which I hadn't played. It was late in a game we were trailing during a pivotal third down. The play was called -- a simple counter in which I was supposed to pull and seal the C gap. Only thing was -- I did not pull. I was a right guard playing right tackle. Our running back was blown up by the player I should've been blocking while receiving the handoff, fumbled and the other team recovered the ball.
We lost.
As I came to the sideline, my coach, in far less gentle terms, asked me what I was doing. I told him, "I don't know." My coach replied with a more expletive-laden version of, "What do you mean you don't know? It's your job to know!"
Fast forward to Saturday night when USC blew a two-touchdown lead on the road to Maryland in a 29-28 loss. This a week after the Trojans blew a two-touchdown lead in the second half to Penn State and a few weeks after they blew a fourth-quarter lead to Minnesota. After the game, Lincoln Riley was asked about USC's inability to finish games and why he thinks it keeps happening.
"I don't know," was his answer.
In the words of my former high school coach: What do you mean you don't know? It's your job to know.
USA Today released its annual list of coaching salaries across the country last week, and Riley checks in at fourth, earning just over $10 million per season. That's a lot of money to pay somebody not to know what's going on, isn't it?
Now, to be fair, I don't know what's wrong with USC, either. I've dug into the numbers to see if there's a glaring issue, and there isn't. The truth is that it looks to be a lot of little things. The offense hasn't been nearly as effective in conference play. Hell, the Trojans offense has been less explosive than Iowa.
Defensively, there's still a marked improvement over last season, but the performance has gradually been declining due to attrition -- from both injury and hurt feelings -- on the depth chart.
There is no easy fix here, so as far as that's concerned, I sympathize with Riley. I also don't solely blame him, as has been the case with plenty of others. If you've noticed, Oklahoma is struggling right now, too, and I've heard a lot of "Lincoln's destroyed two programs" chatter, which I believe to be unfair.
While Riley shoulders some blame for how things have deteriorated in Norman, Oklahoma, USC was already a mess when he arrived. This program had four 10+-win seasons in the previous 12 years under three different coaches before hiring Riley and only one Pac-12 title since 2008. Riley's first USC team won 11 games and may have won both the Pac-12 and reached the College Football Playoff had Caleb Williams not pulled his hamstring in the conference championship game.
There is plenty of blame to go around for the slow decline of a once-great college football program, and Riley's played a much smaller role than many. But right now, it's Riley's job to put an end to it, and he's not. The Trojans are 1-4 in conference play and 5-9 overall since starting last season 6-0. How do they fix it?
Like I said earlier, I don't know, but I don't have to.
Celebration of the week
While we're on the subject of USC, how about the team to which it lost? That was a huge win for Maryland as the Terps were coming off two straight losses and were already 0-3 in the Big Ten with a 27-point home loss to Northwestern the last time out. Now, the Terps need to keep things going because they need two more wins if they want to get to a bowl game, and two of their final five games are on the road against No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State.
Hard to see them winning either of those! That means they need to get two of three from their road trip to Minnesota this week and two home games against Rutgers and Iowa.
I'm a company man
Wanted to shout out the CBS Sports production team for doing an incredible job with the CBS Game of the Week between Illinois and Michigan. Illinois was celebrating the 100-year anniversary of an epic performance by Red Grange against the Wolverines and went all out for this game, including with throwback uniforms that featured incredible helmets designed to look like they were made of leather.
Our production team did a great job of matching the effort. It was great to see Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jenny Dell and the entire crew dive into the 1924 aesthetic for the pregame.
It was also great to see the internet have fun with it too.
Wagon of the week
Here's a list of statistics the Indiana Hoosiers offense lead the Big Ten in during conference play.
| Categories in which Indiana's offense leads | Stat |
|---|---|
Points per possession | 3.93 |
Yards per play | 7.3 |
Success rate | 56.9% |
EPA per play | 0.36 |
EPA per dropback | 0.59 |
EPA per rush | 0.16 |
Explosive play rate | 16.4% |
Red Zone drive rate | 54.35% |
And there are plenty more I don't need to mention because you get the point.
That, dear reader, is what a Wagon looks like. This team has not trailed for a single snap this season! Unfortunately, the Wagon did receive some bad news from their 56-7 evisceration of Nebraska. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke will miss some time due to a thumb injury he suffered in the win. It's hard to argue it's not a concern for the Hoosiers, but I feel obligated to mention Rourke didn't play in the second half against Nebraska, and Indiana outscored the Cornhuskers 28-0 without him.
Now let's do something about that camera angle, OK?
A sad farewell
I genuinely hate that Northwestern won't play any more home games at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium along the shore of Lake Michigan this year. I understand it's not an ideal situation from a revenue standpoint, but there isn't a better setting for a football game in the Big Ten. Plus, let's be honest about Wrigley Field. Sure, there have been some renovations to it, but the best renovations have been outside the stadium! Inside still very much resembles a 110-year old structure.
Not to mention there's no risk of running directly into a brick wall at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. There is at Wrigley.
The race to Indianapolis
The Big Ten may want to send a thank you note to Jonathan Smith and the Michigan State Spartans. By beating Iowa Saturday night, the Spartans helped clear up some of the potential chaos in the Big Ten title race down the stretch.
As we hit the back half of the league slate, there are six teams remaining who either have one loss or are undefeated in conference play. There's a decent chance that the long list of tiebreakers the league released earlier this season will come into play at the end of the year.
The good news for those of you who don't enjoy chaos (what's your deal, anyway?) is that some of it could be cleared up this weekend. Illinois is 3-1 in the Big Ten after beating Michigan but is on the road to face undefeated Oregon on Saturday afternoon. Wisconsin, which has won three straight, is also 3-1 in the conference and hosts undefeated Penn State on Saturday night.
If both Oregon and Penn State win, as they're both favored to do, it will clear up a lot of congestion. But if one or both Illinois and Wisconsin manage to shock the world? Then things would get very interesting indeed.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.
All Big Ten college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon: Listen, it would be thrilling to see the Illini shock the world and beat the Ducks to shake up the conference title race a bit, but it's hard for me to see that happening. I wrote last week that Illinois should've been favored at home against Michigan, and the results on the field supported that notion. This week I'm confident in saying Oregon is the much better team, and they're playing their best football of the season right now. Illinois' offense struggled on the road against Penn State, and I expect it'll struggle in Autzen Stadium, too. Oregon -21.5
Rutgers at USC -- USC -14.5
Nebraska at No. 4 Ohio State -- Ohio State -25.5
Washington at No. 13 Indiana -- Washington +6.5
Northwestern at Iowa -- Iowa -12.5
Maryland at Minnesota -- Minnesota -4.5
No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin -- Wisconsin +6.5
Michigan State at Michigan -- Michigan State +5.5
Last Week: 1-6 (!)
Season: 43-35-1