In the recent history of the Big Ten, three programs have dominated the football field: Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. During the Big Ten's geographical division era (where have you gone, dear Legends and Leaders!), the three conference powers were forced to share the East and compete against one another every season. In those 10 seasons locked together, they went 168-32 (.840) against everyone else in the Big Ten.
| School (2014 to 2023) | vs. Big Three | vs. Rest of B1G |
|---|---|---|
Ohio State | 15-4 (.789) | 63-3 (.955) |
Michigan | 10-9 (.526) | 53-13 (.803) |
Penn State | 4-16 (.200) | 52-16 (.765) |
Now, in the first year of the new-look, divisionless 18-team super-conference, Oregon has a chance to beat all three and win the Big Ten in its first season as a member.
Should Oregon finish the job Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium by beating Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game, it would be hard to argue that any program has had a more successful first season in a power league than the Ducks. Oregon has been one of the most successful programs in the country over the last 20 years, but its accomplishments have often been disregarded due to failures on the national stage.
Winning the Pac-12 six times in 15 years never carried much weight among those outside the West Coast when they could easily point to failures in both a BCS title game and a CFP title game. Never mind that the Ducks got there! They lost! And to teams from the mighty SEC and Big Ten at that!
The irony, of course, is that Dan Lanning was unable to break through in his first two seasons at Oregon. Last year's team was one of the best in the country, but it couldn't get over the Washington hump. Although it destroyed Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl, nobody is going to give you credit for destroying Liberty in a major bowl game. That's what you're supposed to do.
Beating Penn State and hoisting the Big Ten trophy after beating both Ohio State and Michigan in the regular season won't be so easy to dismiss.
It would also mean quite a bit to Penn State. If you're a Penn State fan, coach or player, I can forgive you for being caught off-guard by the sudden need to travel to Indianapolis. While it was always a mathematical possibility, it always felt like a limited one following yet another loss to Ohio State in early November.
That felt like your best chance to reach the game because surely Ohio State wouldn't lose to Michigan again!
As you can see from the table above, while Penn State has been one of the three best teams in the Big Ten in the modern era, there's a divide between it and Ohio State and Michigan -- particularly when they meet on the field. Now, despite failing against the Buckeyes yet again, Penn State gets a shot to win its first Big Ten title since 2016 and earn a CFP by that comes along with being a top-four seed. And it doesn't need to get through the Ohio State bogeyman to do it.
All of which has me excited to see what happens Saturday. It's not the Big Ten Championship Game most of us expected, and I doubt it's the one the Big Ten hoped for, but it's a fascinating matchup with a lot on the line for both teams.
Big Ten Championship notes
Who doesn't want some factoids to throw out to friends this week?
- This is the fifth meeting between Penn State and Oregon, and the first since the 1995 Rose Bowl. Penn State won that game 38-20 and has won three of the previous four matchups.
- If Oregon wins it will be the sixth time in history a team beat Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the same season. The previous five times were all done by Michigan State (1951, 1965, 1966, 1999, 2015).
- Oregon is one of only five teams to reach a the conference championship game in their first season in a league this year. Arizona State, Army, SMU and Texas have all done it too.
- Only four teams have reached the conference title game and won it in their first year in the league over the past 30 seasons: 1996 Texas (Big 12), 1997 Marshall (MAC), 2005 Tulsa (CUSA) and 2023 Liberty (CUSA)
- Penn State is 4-12 all time vs. AP No. 1 team and has lost five straight. The Nittany Lions' last win was against Notre Dame in 1990.
About that enormous elephant in the room
OK, we've talked about the two teams that will play in the Big Ten Championship Game, now it's time to talk about the one that won't. I truly have no idea what to make of the Ryan Day situation at Ohio State. I said last season after Ohio State's third-straight loss that it didn't matter what Ohio State accomplished in 2024; if Ryan Day lost to Michigan for a fourth straight year, I believed there was a very real chance Ohio State would move on.
I still believe it to be the case.
It's one thing to lose to your rival, but when you consider the context of what happened Saturday, it only makes things worse. The Buckeyes went all in financially during the offseason for this moment, entered the game as three-score favorites and were facing a Michigan team missing two of its best players in Will Johnson and Colston Loveland. They then proceeded to hit themselves in the face with a shovel repeatedly due to a flawed game plan. By the time the game ended, the fight had started and Ryan Day was shown standing there oblivious to it all. He was asking "What happened?" while everybody else was asking "What happens next?"
On the surface, it seems insane to imagine Ohio State firing a coach who is 66-10 and has his team on the precipice of a fourth playoff appearance in six seasons, but nothing about college football is sane. I don't even know that winning the national title would save Day's job as much as delay the inevitable.
A lot has changed in human society over the last 2,000 years, but some things, particularly in the world of competitive entertainment, remain exactly the same. When the crowds at the Roman Coliseum turned on the gladiators, there was no turning back, and life as a college football coach is no different. The Ohio State crowd has largely turned on Ryan Day. I no longer believe it's merely a very vocal minority.
Thoughts on the Purdue opening
We have our first opening in the Big Ten, and barring a surprise development, it will probably be the last. Purdue announced Sunday it had fired Ryan Walters after two seasons. I can assure you it wasn't a move Purdue was eager to make but rather one in which its hand was forced. Things were spiraling out of control as the Boilermakers ended the season getting crushed 66-0 by rival Indiana under a first-year coach on his way to a College Football Playoff berth.
While results on the field were awful, they weren't better off the field where Purdue's 2025 recruiting class cratered due to decommitments.
It will be very interesting to see where the program goes from here. Walters was making just over $4 million per year, which ranked 52nd nationally, according to USA Today's database, and 16th among the 17 Big Ten salaries we know about (as a private school, Northwestern isn't forced to disclose David Braun's salary). Furthermore, before the season began, Purdue lost its two best players in the transfer portal when both were offered more lucrative deals from SEC schools that Purdue was unwilling to match.
Purdue now finds itself at a bit of a crossroads when considering the future of college football. If you look around the Big Ten, schools like Illinois and Indiana -- Purdue's "basketball school" brethren -- have poured a lot more money into their football programs in recent years and have seen it pay off on the field. Is Purdue willing to follow suit?
There's no such thing as an unimportant hire when it comes to finding a new football coach, but the decision Purdue makes this offseason could have ramifications that last far longer than the tenure of Ryan Walters' replacement.
Yelling about meaningless rankings
The Big Ten has five teams in the latest AP Top 25 and will likely have five in Tuesday night's College Football Playoff Rankings. I will be very interested to see where the committee slots Illinois in relation to Colorado because my mind has been blown by what the AP Poll chose.
Colorado is 9-3, as is Illinois. Neither one has the kind of impressive win you can hang your hat on and use as a trump card; however, when you compare losses, the Buffaloes have lost to three unranked teams: Nebraska, Kansas State and Kansas. Illinois has lost to No. 1 Oregon, No. 3 Penn State and unranked Minnesota.
Oh, and the Nebraska and Kansas teams Colorado lost to by a combined 34 points? Illinois beat both of them.
Yet Illinois is ranked behind Colorado in the AP Top 25. I'd love to hear an explanation from the voters who put Colorado ahead of the Illini on what it was about the Buffs that impressed them so much.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.
All Big Ten college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State: I wish I could say that I have a clear read on this game, but I don't. I do think Oregon is the better team, and has been all season, but I don't think the gap between it and Penn State is massive. As good as the Ducks have looked all year, Penn State's only looked bad once itself, and that was in the loss to Ohio State -- a team that provided Oregon its most difficult test as well. Still, in the end, I'm leaning Oregon because I believe the Ducks have playmakers at the receiver position Penn State doesn't, and the ability to make one play could prove to be the difference in the game. Oregon -3.5
Last Week: 4-6
Season: 66-58-1