The Big 12 hasn't had a repeat champion in five years, and only four current members have appeared in the conference championship game multiple times since it was reintroduced in 2017. Can Texas Tech become the first team in six years to repeat, or will another contender emerge in what has become the most unpredictable Power Four conference?
Texas Tech enters the 2026 season as the clear favorite at -105 to win the Big 12 at FanDuel, the second-best odds of any team to win an FBS conference this preseason. The Red Raiders have plenty working in their favor after winning their first outright conference championship since 1955 last season, but BYU (+500) has unfinished business after making its first appearance in the title game. The Cougars' only two losses in 2025 came against Texas Tech, including a 34-7 defeat in the championship game.
Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and TCU are the only current Big 12 members with multiple appearances in the championship game since 2017. Texas Tech and BYU joined that list of participants for the first time last season, while Utah (+900) and Houston (+1500) are among the leading contenders still looking for their first appearance.
Four of the Big 12's most experienced coaches are gone, with Mike Gundy fired at Oklahoma State, Kyle Whittingham leaving Utah for Michigan, Matt Campbell departing Iowa State for Penn State and Chris Klieman retiring at Kansas State.
So, can Texas Tech become the Big 12's first repeat champion since 2020? Or is another surprise waiting around the corner? Here's how our experts see the Big 12 shaking out in 2026.
Most overrated team
Oklahoma State: With Oklahoma State, I just think it's a sheer fact: What exactly do they really have outside of the quarterback? I know he'll be the rising tide that lifts all boats, but this team was so bad and so gutted that, if you're optimistic about it, you're basically saying that the North Texas import at some key positions (at all three levels of the defense, on the offensive line, and at the skill positions) will just work to be plug-and-play in a deep Big 12. I don't know that year one goes so swimmingly in Stillwater. -- Richard Johnson
TCU: TCU must replace an awesome, productive quarterback in Josh Hoover, who led the Frogs to four one-score wins last season. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig could be an exciting replacement, but doing so with a new offensive coordinator, will he come up clutch in tight games? Plus, Bud Clark's replacement at safety, transfer Jacob Fields, was just booted from the team. Buy the TCU under. -- Brandon Marcello (also John Talty)
Utah: Utah has been one of the most consistent programs in the country for decades, maintaining a level of competence and excellence as it has moved through different conferences. But now Kyle Whittingham has left, and he's taken the team's offensive coordinator, as well as any player along the lines of scrimmage with eligibility remaining. This is a brand new Utah in 2026, with a first-time head coach. Between their original ranking in the AP poll and their projected win total, my gut tells me we're giving the Utes a little too much credit for what they've been, not for who they're likely to be this season. -- Tom Fornelli (also Chip Patterson, Brad Crawford, Chris Hummer)
Most underrated team
Arizona State: Last year didn't go according to plan for Arizona State, coming off a playoff appearance. Sam Leavitt played only seven games, including a win over Texas Tech, and the Sun Devils took a step back with an 8-5 record. But I like a lot of the portal additions, especially Colorado receiver Omarion Miller, and believe in Kenny Dillingham's ability to get the best out of Kentucky transfer quarterback Cutter Boley. Discount Arizona State at your peril this season. -- John Talty
Kansas State: Does Collin Klein have a friend in the college football scheduling department? He was able to develop Marcel Reed at Texas A&M last season as the Aggies took advantage of a friendly SEC schedule. Now he's looking to do the same for Avery Johnson in a season where Kansas State won't see Texas Tech, BYU or Utah unless they meet them in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats are poised for a quick turnaround. -- Tom Fornelli
Oklahoma State: No team in college football is going to see YOY improvement like the Cowboys this fall, going from one win in 2025 to potentially eight this season. Thanks to 75 new players following a coaching transition, Oklahoma State is a legit dark horse in the Big 12 if former North Texas coach Eric Morris is ahead of schedule in Stillwater, with difference-makers like Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young joining him. That early-season matchup with Oregon should provide a glimpse of what the Cowboys are made of this fall. -- Brad Crawford (also Brandon Marcello)
TCU: It's understandable if people discounted TCU this season after losing Josh Hoover to Indiana, and with the surge of Texas Tech and BYU in the Big 12. But the Horned Frogs are positioned to make a run this season. They return key pieces on offense, along with almost their entire defensive line. Plus, they made an offensive coordinator change that has people in the building bullish. Gordon Sammis comes from UConn and has installed a much more balanced system than the Horned Frogs employed under Kendal Briles. Expect TCU to run the ball far more often -- UConn had a top 25 rushing and passing offense last season -- and for that balance to help a defense that has long been asked to play significant snaps opposing the pace from Briles' veer-and-shoot. TCU didn't really downgrade at QB either. Scouts view Jaden Craig as an NFL talent and a fit for what TCU hopes to do well. The schedule isn't easy with BYU, Utah and Texas Tech on deck. But TCU remains one of the most talented teams in the league and has won nine games back-to-back years for a reason. TCU flips a few of the close losses that have plagued it the last two seasons and reaches the Big 12 title game. -- Chris Hummer (also Chip Patterson and Richard Johnson)
Bold predictions
- Brad Crawford: Rumors of the Big 12 being top-heavy are true this season. This conference will produce only nine bowl-eligible teams -- including two in the CFP -- with seven programs falling just below the six-win threshold. That'll result in a coaching change or two ahead of the 2027 campaign.
- Chris Hummer: TCU surprises everyone and makes a charge to the Big 12 Championship Game, playing Texas Tech back-to-back weeks to end the season. The Horned Frogs weren't far off last year, and their change at offensive coordinator helps create a much more complementary style of football that will lead to 10-plus wins.
- Tom Fornelli: By the time the season comes to an end, five different Big 12 programs will need to undergo a coaching change.
- Chip Patterson: Jaden Craig wins Big 12 Player of the Year. The Harvard transfer hits the ground running in Week 0 against North Carolina and carries the momentum through to a productive season that has Frogs fans asking, "Who's Josh Hoover?"
- Brandon Marcello: Is it all that bold if Oklahoma State has suddenly become the trendy dark horse in the Big 12? I'll take it a step further: the Cowboys upset Texas Tech on Nov. 14, potentially ruining the Red Raiders' CFP hopes as they stare down a second loss in the Big 12 Championship Game.
- Richard Johnson: Jaden Craig ends the season as the league's second-best passer, right behind Drew Mestamaker. You may not know much about the Harvard transfer now, but you will soon enough. In offensive coordinator Gordan Sammis' new-look TCU offense, the Frogs bounce back on offense to be a dark horse in the Big 12.
- John Talty: With one of the cheapest rosters in the Power Four, Willie Fritz deserves Coach of the Year consideration for putting Houston seriously in the Big 12 title and College Football Playoff hunts. Houston just misses the cut, but gives Texas Tech all it can handle on Sept. 18.
Big 12 predicted order of finish
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Big 12 champion
Texas Tech: Sometimes the boring answer is the right answer, and in the Big 12, both the boring and correct answer for the pick to win the conference is the team that has quickly become the gold standard in the league for identifying and acquiring talent. Money is not the only factor in Lubbock, because there are examples of teams that spend millions of dollars for below-average results every season. At Texas Tech, they have successfully married the resources with recruiting and scouting efforts to build a modern power, and as we look ahead to 2026, they are among the best in the conference at multiple positions on the depth chart. They've got future NFL Draft picks along both lines of scrimmage, the best one-two punch at running back with Cameron Dickey and J'Kobi Williams and a schedule that makes anything short of a conference title game appearance a disappointment. -- Chip Patterson (also Fornelli, Talty, Johnson, Crawford and Hummer)
BYU: Follow the money at Texas Tech all you want, but let's not forget about BYU. The Cougars don't play the Red Raiders or Houston, a popular darkhorse pick, and they return quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin from last season's 12-2 team. Tech added portal talent again. BYU kept its talent on campus. That experience -- and the favorable schedule -- pushes BYU to the top. -- Brandon Marcello
