When the Big Ten decided to move to an 18-team league without divisions, it set up a truly chaotic system. There are only two slots available in the Big Ten Championship Game with 18 teams vying for them. Many of the top contenders will not play each other. There could conceivably be half a dozen teams with the same exact conference record on pins and needles waiting for the tiebreaker.
With that in mind, we decided to look at the state of the Big Ten race as we reach the halfway point of the regular season. There are only three undefeated teams remaining in the Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State and Indiana. Ohio State picked up its first loss to the Ducks on Saturday.
More likely than not, a team with a loss will reach the Big Ten title game. Right now, there are six teams with a 2-1 Big Ten record trying to fight for attention. Plenty of marquee matchups ahead will shape the state of the race.
As a recap, here's how the Big Ten tiebreaker procedures work in 2024:
- The tied teams will be compared on head-to-head records.
- The tied teams will be compared on record against common conference opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents from the best conference record down to worst conference record.
- The tied teams will be compared based on conference winning percentage of their opponents.
- The team will be chosen by highest ranking by the team Rating Score, provided by SportSource Analytics.
- The team will be chosen by random draw.
Needless to say, an 18-team conference race will make for some truly insane battles to reach the Big Ten Championship Game (Dec. 7 in Indianapolis on CBS). Here's how we handicap each team heading into the middle of the season.
The Undefeateds
Oregon: The Ducks are unquestionably in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title after shocking Ohio State in Eugene. Beating the Buckeyes gives Oregon a major tiebreaker heading into the home stretch. Moreover, the Ducks don't play a single team ranked in the top 20 for the rest of the season. Even if there's a silly loss along the way, it's unlikely to knock Oregon off its perch. One spot in the Big Ten title game is probably locked up.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions survived an overtime road battle against USC to reach 6-0 and stay undefeated. Once again, the path to the Big Ten title runs through Ohio State, which Penn State plays on Nov. 2. Otherwise, it's a hodgepodge of mid-tier Big Ten teams from Minnesota to Wisconsin. An 11-1 record should be the floor, it just depends which loss comes around.
Indiana: There's no fluke. Through half of the college football regular season, Indiana is ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings. The Hoosiers are 3-0 in Big Ten play and have won every game by at least two touchdowns, including a road trip to Northwestern on Oct. 5. The first big test comes this week as the Hoosiers host Nebraska in a marquee noon matchup. If Indiana wins big, the schedule gets interesting. No. 24 Michigan doesn't look scary without a passing game. Purdue, Washington and Michigan State are middle- or bottom-tier teams. It's really that one game against Ohio State. And hey, if Ohio State or Penn State lose another game along the way, 11-1 could still be enough to reach Indianapolis.
The Contenders
Ohio State: The Buckeyes fall down a tier after a devastating one-point road loss to Oregon. While Ohio State still has a strong chance of making it to the Big Ten title game, the path ahead is filled with complications. A road game against No. 4 Penn State on Nov. 2 is daunting. No. 24 Indiana no longer looks like a pushover. And then, of course, there's the emotional rivalry game against No. 24 Michigan to end the year. Behind Oregon, Ohio State is the most likely second participant, but the path is much more complicated now.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes dropped a cool 40 points against Washington this week and don't play a single ranked team for the rest of the year. In fact, Wisconsin and Nebraska are the only opponents even projected to make a bowl game. A losing tiebreaker to Ohio State makes the path more difficult, but the Hawkeyes should be competitive with almost anyone else.
Illinois: The Illini have a two-touchdown loss to Penn State on their record, but could flip their fortunes by going on the road and beating Oregon on Oct. 26. A win would give Illinois a head-to-head tiebreaker and potentially the top head-to-head win, which would be invaluable in a tiebreaker situation. A home game against Michigan this weekend (3:30 p.m., CBS) is an absolutely crucial game.
So You're Saying There's a Chance
Michigan: The blessing is that the Wolverines completely control their own destiny to get back into the Big Ten title race. The curse? It's because they have to play everybody. Michigan has No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 19 Indiana and No. 23 Illinois on the docket. Three of the four games are on the road. Threading the needle is probably too difficult, but the record is still 2-1.
Nebraska: Finding a path to Indianapolis would involve beating undefeated Indiana, Ohio State, USC and Iowa all on the road. If they do that, the Cornhuskers would have a very serious chance of making it. At the same time, that's a tough ask. Reaching a first bowl game since 2016 is plenty to celebrate.
Wisconsin: Don't look now but Wisconsin has flipped a switch since losing to USC. Running back Tawee Walker has unlocked the Badgers' run game to the tune of 292 yards over the past two weeks as Wisconsin beat Purdue and Rutgers by a combined 94-13. Games against Oregon and Penn State ahead probably preclude Wisconsin from Indianapolis, but crazier things have happened.
Outside looking in
- Rutgers: The good vibes are sadly leaving the building after a 42-7 to Wisconsin dropped the Scarlet Knights to 1-2 in Big Ten play. There are still winnable games ahead, but dropping to middle class teams Nebraska and Wisconsin doesn't portend well.
- USC: The Trojans have lost three Big Ten games by a combined 13 points. Unfortunately, all of them still count.
- Minnesota: The Gophers pushed Michigan to the limit, beat USC and survived UCLA. P.J. Fleck can run for mayor of Los Angeles now, but games against Illinois and Penn State ahead makes for an unlikely path.
- Washington: Beating Michigan by 10 points was a really nice moment for the program. Unfortunately, it might end up being the nicest moment of the season for the program.
- Northwestern: After starting the season extremely poorly, a 27-point win over Maryland helped get things back on track.
- Michigan State: The Spartans' last two games were against Oregon and Ohio State and they lost by a combined 69-17. Finding three more wins to reach a bowl is tough.
Fresh Air and Exercise
- Maryland
- Purdue
- UCLA
These teams are a combined 0-10 in conference play and have three combined games within one score against Big Ten competition. The good news is that academically, these three schools can compete with anyone in the conference.
