Which Power Four teams bounce back to a bowl game in 2026? Optimism for Florida, Colorado has work to do

Bowl games aren't nearly as important as they once were, but they remain a measuring stick in college football. We've begun to see some fall by the wayside as teams have joined the ranks of NFL-bound players and opted out of playing in the games, but the fact of the matter is, missing out on a bowl because you didn't win enough games is a little embarrassing.

Perhaps you aren't proud of that invite to the LA Bowl (RIP), but you aren't ashamed of it, either.

Last year, 24 Power Four programs failed to reach bowl eligibility. Here, in mid-February, more than six months from the start of the 2026 season, it felt like a good time as any to take a look at those teams and their outlook on avoiding a repeat embarrassment in 2026. It's harder than ever to know how a program will progress from year to year now that we've seen so many one-offseason makeovers through the transfer portal, but after long hours of deep reflection, I broke our 24 contestants down into five separate categories. We'll start with the bad news and work our way to the good.

Not Optimistic

Boston College: After a 7-6 showing in Bill O'Brien's first season, the Eagles fell to 2-10 last year, and won only one ACC game -- a 34-12 win over an especially bad Syracuse team. Perhaps the Eagles will increase their win total next year, but it's tough to imagine they do so by four wins. 

Not only does BC get Notre Dame on the schedule this year, but it's going to South Bend. In conference play, it has road trips to SMU and Miami, and draws what should be a much-improved Virginia Tech. The Eagles also decided to play not one, but two nonconference games against Power Four opponents in Cincinnati and Rutgers. That's not the kind of scheduling teams who want to get to bowl games typically do outside of the conference.

Colorado: The Coach Prime experience has been a rollercoaster ride. After all the hype ahead of 2023, the Buffs laid an egg, going 4-8. They followed it up with a 9-4 record and a Heisman Trophy thanks to Travis Hunter, but life after Hunter and Shedeur Sanders wasn't nearly as friendly, as the Buffs fell back to 3-9. 

As is always the case, Deion Sanders and staff were active in the portal in an effort to reverse their fortunes. The problem is, like Boston College, Colorado is playing two nonconference games against Power Four opponents (Georgia Tech and Northwestern), and both are on the road. In conference play, the Buffs get both Texas Tech and Utah, though at least those games are in Boulder. It's difficult to predict how the Big 12 will shake out, but overall, the Buffs don't have many games against teams that finished in the bottom half of the league last season.

Maryland: Maryland is 8-16 the last two seasons and only 2-16 in Big Ten play. The Terps have a lot of young talent, and it's not out of line to see a major leap forward because of it, but the schedule is rough. They're on the road for Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, and Purdue, which could've been one of the more winnable games. They also have a nonconference game against a Virginia Tech team that should be a lot better in 2026.

Mississippi State: Jeff Lebby is 1-15 in SEC games in his first two seasons, though the Bulldogs did improve by three wins last year. Earning one more win isn't difficult in a vacuum, but the schedule next season is rough. They'll get Minnesota on the road, and have road conference games against South Carolina, LSU, Texas and Ole Miss. At home, they get Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Vandy and Auburn. Even if they sweep their nonconference slate, they haven't shown enough to make me optimistic they can win three SEC games.

Syracuse: The Orange were wrecked by injuries at the QB position last year en route to a 3-9 mark, so better health alone could lead to better results. But will those results be good enough to get to six wins? It's tough because a lot of their ACC games that look like coin flip matchups on paper will be on the road. Furthermore, while they avoid Miami, they do have to play SMU, Clemson and Notre Dame. Six wins seem like we're asking a lot.

Not Optimistic, But That's OK

Arkansas: These four schools could get to bowl games, but probably won't, and it's not a big deal because they all have new(ish) coaches. A bowl would be great, but missing out wouldn't be the end of the world. It would just lead to more pressure heading into Year Two. That said, Arkansas has only been to a bowl game three times in the last nine seasons, so fans might feel differently. 

The problem for Ryan Silverfield (and all SEC coaches) is that now that the SEC has gone to nine games, it's much more difficult to find that sixth win. A road trip to Utah in September won't help the Hawgs cause much, either. Nor does having to play Georgia, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Texas. Those four combined to win 43 games last season. The "worst" team on the schedule from last year is either Auburn or South Carolina. It won't be easy.

Kentucky: Mark Stoops got the Wildcats to a bowl game every season from 2016-23, but missed out on the last two years. That's why Will Stein is in charge now! 

Stein has a lot of work to do, though. Even if Kentucky goes 3-0 out of conference (not a given with Louisville), the Cats need to find three more wins against Alabama, Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, Vandy, Tennessee, Florida and Mizzou. 

Oh, and five of those nine SEC games are on the road. So the reality is you're looking for three wins from four against Alabama, LSU, Vandy and Florida, and that's if you beat Louisville, too.

Purdue: Barry Odom is not in his first season at Purdue, but last year was looked at as more of a Year 0 situation than a Year 1. Purdue fans are well aware of the situation Odom inherited and how it won't be a quick fix. 

While Purdue's record (2-10) wasn't much of an improvement on 2024, it's hard to deny that it wasn't a much more competitive team. I expect further improvements in 2026, but the nonconference slate features games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame. In the Big Ten, the Boilermakers have five road games, including tilts against Penn State, Illinois, Iowa and Indiana. The home slate is manageable, but jumping from 2-10 to 6-6 or better is asking a lot.

Stanford: I don't think the expectations for Tavita Pritchard are very high in his first season. Stanford is looking to rebuild the program, and while it would love to see the team go bowling immediately, it's not a requirement, which is good because it'll be tough to get six wins. The Cardinal face Miami coming off a title game appearance, Notre Dame, reigning ACC champion Duke, Louisville, and James Franklin's new look Virginia Tech. And all of those games, aside from the Miami game, will be on the road.

Really Need To Win This Coin Flip

Baylor:  These are all programs that weren't far from bowl eligibility in 2025 and could easily level up to get that sixth win, but the problem for their coaches is that simply reaching a bowl game might not be enough to see 2027. 

I mean, frankly, I'm shocked Dave Aranda is back for 2026! We all had this man on one of the hottest seats in the country entering 2025, and he held onto his gig despite going 5-7. The biggest problem Baylor faces is a schedule does few favors. The Bears draw both BYU and Texas Tech, as well as an out-of-league game against Auburn. 

Not only will this team need to improve, but it will also have to avoid every possible banana peel.

Kansas: Staying in the Big 12, the Kansas Jayhawks are coming off consecutive disappointing seasons. We were all throwing flowers at the feet of Lance Leipold following a 9-4 mark in 2023, but the 'Hawks are 10-14 over the last two seasons and only 7-11 in the Big 12. 

This season's schedule is not impossible, but it's not simple, either. There's the Border War against Mizzou, and while Kansas avoids Texas Tech, it must play Utah and BYU. It also gets Arizona State, but at least that's a home game. Five of their nine Big 12 games are not.

North Carolina: The NFL's 33rd Team had a tough go last season and usually found itself in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. 

Even though the Heels finished 4-8, I'm somewhat optimistic about improving by two wins in 2026. The Tar Heels should be more talented. The problem is that the schedule is not friendly. They will be on the road for Clemson and get Notre Dame and Miami at home. They also open the season in Ireland against TCU, and trips to Ireland have not been kind to many of the teams that play in that game in recent years.

South Carolina: I don't know that 6-6 would save Shane Beamer, but after going 1-7 in the SEC last year, I suggest he tries to get there at a minimum. Considering this program was on the precipice of a playoff spot in 2024, last year's fall to 4-8 hurt even more. 

Now they have to deal with a nine-game SEC schedule while also playing a road game against Clemson outside the league. The good news is the Gamecocks get five of their conference games at home this year, and that's a big help. Also, three of those five feel winnable (Miss State, Kentucky, Tennessee). They're likely must-wins if the Cocks want to go bowling.

Rutgers: After leading Rutgers to consecutive bowls in 2023 and 2024, Greg Schiano's men fell to 5-7 last year. 

The nonconference slate of UMass, Howard and a road trip to Boston College is manageable, and all things considered, the Big Ten slate isn't overly bearish. 

Yes, they have to play USC, Indiana and Michigan, but they're all coming to Piscataway. Road games against Maryland and Northwestern are more winnable than a lot of other possible road games they could be playing.

Wisconsin: Like Shane Beamer, I don't know if 6-6 saves Luke Fickell, but it's a minimum requirement. 

Wisconsin was in a bowl game every season from 2002-23, and now it's missed out each of the last two years. Fickell wasn't brought with Madison to flirt with bowl eligibility; he was supposed to flirt with playoff runs. 

The best news here is that the schedule is nowhere near as tough as last season's. However, that doesn't mean it's easy. 

The Badgers open with Notre Dame, but once they get into Big Ten play, they catch quite a few breaks. They aren't playing Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, or Michigan. They do get both Penn State and Iowa on the road -- as well as a home game with USC -- but I think they'll take that trade every season.

In Play, But Not Necessary

Auburn: Last year, Auburn had a good defense and an awful offense, so if Alex Golesh can just put some dang points on the board, that 5-7 mark from the last two years could flip pretty easily. I think there's a very real chance it will. The nonconference slate (Baylor, Southern Miss, Samford) isn't too imposing, and the Tigers avoid two of the SEC's five playoff teams from last season. Still, they do have to go on the road against Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. That won't be fun, and the home slate features Florida, Vandy and LSU.

Michigan State: Michigan State has not been to a bowl game since Kenneth Walker was running wild across everybody in his path. The same Walker who just won a Super Bowl in his fourth NFL season. 

Yeah, it's been too long for the Spartans, and there's a decent chance Pat Fitzgerald can get this team back to the postseason in his first year. 

Out of conference includes a road game against Notre Dame, but Sparty avoids Ohio State, Indiana, USC and Iowa in Big Ten play. They also get five home conference games against Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, Washington and Oregon. A 6-6 mark doesn't feel impossible.

Oklahoma State: Get ready to hear a lot of people tell you Oklahoma State is "the next Indiana" because Eric Morris has come from North Texas and brought the whole dang team with him, but I'm tempering my expectations a little. 

It's not impossible, but considering how bad this team was last year, six wins feels like a significant step forward, particularly when one of your nonconference games is Oregon. Still, in Big 12 play, you avoid BYU and Utah while getting Texas Tech at home. 

You do still have to play five of your Big 12 games on the road, though.

UCF: Scott Frost's UCF return started with a 5-7 season as the Knights were simply uncompetitive outside The Bounce House. Well, seven of your games are at home this season, including five in conference play! And you don't have to play Texas Tech or Utah anywhere, and you get BYU at home! Furthermore, none of your road games -- against Houston, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Colorado -- feel impossible.

UCLA: Hey, Bob Chesney, the last James Madison coach to take over a Big Ten program made the playoffs in Year 1 and won the natty in Year 2. No pressure! This was not a well-prepared team last year, and things went off the rails with the in-season firing of Deshaun Foster, so you would think consistency alone should lead to improved play. Also, a home slate that includes San Diego State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, Illionis and USC provides an opportunity to stack up some wins.

Genuinely Optimistic

Florida: The problem with the Gators last year was not talent. Watch the NFL Draft in April, and that will be evident. They will still be a talented team in 2026, but I consider the hiring of Jon Sumrall to be a massive upgrade on the sidelines. 

That alone will not be enough, as the Gators still have to navigate an SEC schedule. All that said, I'll be more surprised if the Gators miss out on a bowl for the second straight season than I would be if they make it.

Virginia Tech: Penn State could never break through in the Big Ten, so what if you import Penn State into the ACC? This is the question that will be answered as James Franklin and a huge chunk of the Nittany Lions 2025 recruiting class make the trek to Blacksburg. Of all the Power Four conferences, the ACC feels like the one with the softest underbelly, making rapid improvement likely, and I like Tech's chances. 

Now, they have to play Clemson, SMU, and Miami on the road, so I won't be going overboard and asking "ACC contender!?" like a bunch of others will, but I can see this team finishing 8-4.

West Virginia: Yep! I am optimistic about West Virginia! 

It's not just that I think Rich Rodriguez is an underrated coach (he is), and that this team is more talented than many realize (it is), it's also the schedule. Three home nonconference games against Coastal Carolina, UT Martin and Virginia are winnable. 

The Mountaineers also get five Big 12 games at home, giving them eight home games on the season. They won't leave Morgantown until October. Road games against TCU, Texas Tech and Utah won't be fun, but Oklahoma State, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas and Houston all have to come to Milan Puskar Stadium. This team is going bowling.